January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now

Seems like if the PDO is above -0.5 we're okay.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now

I have no doubt this is the key to things going better so far... if that was still down around -3 I have no doubt we would have that awful ridge north of Hawaii causing every wave to dig into the southwest and pump a SER anytime everything isnt perfect everywhere else in the pattern.  

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

h5 def improved..but still looks like it'll slide just to our S and E.    That was fun

i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh

[Amped]

Nam tries to save our snow chances with the great lakes low, It can be a very clever model sometimes although accuracy isn't its strong point.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh

Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too.   Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z

[87storms]

Probably already said here, but the Euro/GFS/CMC don't seem too far off with the southern stream.  It's the northern piece that's squashing things.  Not sure what would make that better aside from timing.

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh

Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too.   Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too.   Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z

it's really close, agree this run was going to be a close miss...but amplify that NS SW and get that trough slightly less positive and it could have been a good outcome.  It was one more trend like what it just did away from a hit.  

[CampergirlFL]

Can you help a Floridian who only (barely) knows how to look at hurricane models, much less snow.  I have a flight from Allentown through Charlotte to Tampa on Sunday afternoon.  Likelihood of getting stranded? 

[mitchnick]

Nam radar In motion would put the southern slug mainly south of most here west of the Bay south of DC.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025010718&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mitchnick]

You can see on that Nam radar loop the kicker is a large part of the problem, or so it seems.

[Ji]

Icon seems to look better at h5

[rjvanals]

ICON is worse than 12Z

[Interstate]

HA HA HA to the last two post

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon seems to look better at h5

 

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

ICON is worse than 12Z

Glad we got that cleared up.

[Shad]

Depends on what back yard you are in   lol

[yoda]

Icon was better at the h5 level and it did move further west

[hstorm]

Just now, yoda said:

Icon was better at the h5 level a d did move further west

Was about to type the same thing.  It looks better.  Just less snow.

[mitchnick]

Just now, yoda said:

Icon was better at the h5 level a d did move further west

If the southern storm slides out, we're only going to get precip from what's almost a glorified frontal passage.

[yoda]

18z RGEM looks a bit better too IMO 

[stormy]

Many variables exist for the Friday/Sunday threat.   Scrutiny at this point is an exercise in futility.   Come back 48 hrs. from now......................

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

18z RGEM looks a bit better too IMO 

Sorta does, but that kicker isn't going to let anything slow down, let alone, amplify imho.

[psuhoffman]

The ICON was closer to a bigger event...but the issue is if the STJ wave starts to amplify more and gets closer...but doesn't actually hit we could end up with nothing because as the coastal starts to get going it will cut off the precip streaming north along the inverted trough with the northern stream low to the north.  So it becomes an all or nothing situation.  A weaker STJ wave opens the door to some kind of in between event with moisture training along the trough.  

[rjvanals]

ICON Ensemble is further NW 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

ICON Ensemble is further NW 

But total precip for the area is .1-.2" until further south and east

 

[Ji]

But total precip for the area is .1-.2" until further south and east
 

I didn’t even know the pos model had ensembles

[soadforecasterx]

Alot of west leaning members. 

[Paleocene]

Just now, soadforecasterx said:

Alot of west leaning members. 

 

Sure, but what's their trajectory? ene?

[soadforecasterx]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Sure, but what's their trajectory? ene?

Unfortunately 

[IronTy]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam radar In motion would put the southern slug mainly south of most here west of the Bay south of DC.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025010718&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Proceed