Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Terpeast said: Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now its going to be a fun next 30 years. By the time the cycle is over...ill probably be near death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ji said: if it didnt get stuck in the Southwest for 24 hours....we would have alot less energy holding back. Thats what i think is killing us too Yeah, ideally that thing would just come out sooner and it one solid piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ji said: sorry didnt realize we in storm mode already It's the subject. Anyway...NAM prob won't get it done, but I think the h5 is a bit different...and positive. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, real said: Boxing Day was a horrible storm for DC and Baltimore. It was like 5 hours of the lightest snizzle that accumulated maybe a half an of inch YMMV severely with that storm. Obviously is a 4-letter word for the majority of the forum, but those of us on the Delmarva have....lets just say...fonder memories of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 this is the kind of storm track/type(juicy gulf low) that the Nam likes to NAM us btw.....i bet we have a run where it shows 10 inches only to go out to sea 6 hours later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 not sure which moves slower. the ULL in the Desert or the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ji said: not sure which moves slower. the ULL in the Desert or the Nam Differences are pretty notable out west, but I still think the nrn vort is gonna be too far out front ultimately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind. But these are some positive changes. Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind. But these are some positive changes. Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2025010718/namconus_z500_vort_us_40.png you would think these could all merge together lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind. But these are some positive changes. Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least Let's just raise the floor a little bit. Don't need a HECS - just some fun on a Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Its a pretty big difference. Northern energy is much farther south this run. Too bad its the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Actually has more of the sw vort energy phased in vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Are we gonna get NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We're not gonna get a fully phased bomb, but the height lines are higher out in front vs 12z. But northern vort coming on and down and about to fuck it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Shad said: Are we gonna get NAM'd? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 NS wave slower/norther and SS waver faster/stronger versus 12z. Love me some NAM play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: No Depends on your threshold for NAM'd. "Shows any amount of snow more than the pro models" = NAMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 h5 def improved..but still looks like it'll slide just to our S and E. That was fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now Seems like if the PDO is above -0.5 we're okay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now I have no doubt this is the key to things going better so far... if that was still down around -3 I have no doubt we would have that awful ridge north of Hawaii causing every wave to dig into the southwest and pump a SER anytime everything isnt perfect everywhere else in the pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: h5 def improved..but still looks like it'll slide just to our S and E. That was fun i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nam tries to save our snow chances with the great lakes low, It can be a very clever model sometimes although accuracy isn't its strong point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ji said: i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too. Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Probably already said here, but the Euro/GFS/CMC don't seem too far off with the southern stream. It's the northern piece that's squashing things. Not sure what would make that better aside from timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Ji said: i wonder how far the precip would have gone north. It looked like it was about to hit a brick wall smh Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too. Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I think it was about to hit the wall too. Let's hope it keeps going with the changes at 0z it's really close, agree this run was going to be a close miss...but amplify that NS SW and get that trough slightly less positive and it could have been a good outcome. It was one more trend like what it just did away from a hit. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CampergirlFL Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Can you help a Floridian who only (barely) knows how to look at hurricane models, much less snow. I have a flight from Allentown through Charlotte to Tampa on Sunday afternoon. Likelihood of getting stranded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nam radar In motion would put the southern slug mainly south of most here west of the Bay south of DC. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025010718&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 You can see on that Nam radar loop the kicker is a large part of the problem, or so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Icon seems to look better at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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