psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Just now, ravensrule said: I would P in my pants. depends 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:23 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: P5 please P14 as a backup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like two of them are really skewing the mean to me… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Um, maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: depends LOLLLLL, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM EPS 50% snowfall, which btw is a much better indicator than the mean which can be skewed by outliers. It was an improvement over the previous run. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would P in my pants. 5 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:37 PM 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: 5 times There is a laundry list of things I’d do for a 20”er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:39 PM I'd be more than fine with 2". It'll just keep the snowpack healthy. I was looking for a BamWX video about the upcoming "blizzard" but I think he deleted his YT channel. I wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEPS made a big move to a snowier event Well a lot of unusual stuff has been happening recently so this would be another for us ala 1987 where it snows every time it possibly can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:45 PM 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Well a lot of unusual stuff has been happening recently so this would be another for us ala 1987 where it snows every time it possibly can Now that we have the cold, all we need is our year-round, every 4-5 days (on average) precip event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM Transitioning to the long range again... the EPS shifted the trough axis east in the day 10-15 period. The AO/NOA is relaxing but looks neutral not hostile. The ridge does retrograde into the WPO domain, which as Chuck pointed out is not ideal, however I've noted guidance continues to indicate troughing in the central pacific underneath the WPO and EPO ridge. This creates a significantly different effect than when the ridge in the central pacific is full latitude being fed from the tropics. It's a much less hostile pacific look, more neutral in terms of its effects downstream on North America. It will force the ridging to creep into western N Amer. more which prevents a god awful -PNA digging for gold down the west coast, and also directs cold shots a little further east. Lastly, not only is this not a hostile look IMO, but its even a pretty good one if you have cold established across N America ahead of this pattern. In recent years when we did get a mediocre pattern it was often coming off a torch which just doesn't work...but going from a great pattern that establishes cold a mediocre longwave pattern is much more likely to produce snow. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:56 PM TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. 13 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Tuesday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:58 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. so - looks like we'll get real winter about once a decade now. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:00 PM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:02 PM 6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: so - looks like we'll get real winter about once a decade now. These things still run in cycles... if the AO and PDO are both going through a decadal flip right now (they could be but its too soon to say for sure) maybe we are about to head into a heater. Of course keep expectations in check...heater periods are not necessarily what they once were, I don't think the 1800s or 1960s are walking through that door anytime soon, but we can probably pull off a run like 2003-2016 again. Snowfall is really fluky and we dont always end up with a big number around here even in a "real winter" 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 were all "real winters" with periods of sustained cold and some snowfall around our area we just got unlucky and didn't score any flush hits those years. 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2015 we got the cold and the big snows. But it felt like legit winter "most" years during that stretch unlike recent years where we spend a majority of the "winter" in a fall jacket. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again 4 7 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:05 PM 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again see my post right after yours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM 8 minutes ago, hstorm said: Saturday's storm is leaning a bit to the right. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: lol I can’t with these models anymore LOL, looks like NWS Blacksburg's radar beam going just to my east in a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Tuesday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:32 PM Just a tidbit since I’m bored. Euro Ai is a really good model. Been watching it during all the events so far this winter and it’s really accurate. It seems like the graphics are like smoothed out like the old control, but I’m not exactly sure what goes into it. It’s been pretty steady with Saturday’s event outside minor ticks here and there. It seems all the models trending towards its overall H5 look. I think SE of the cities could be in store for 1-4” event with maybe far SE sections 2-5”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:44 PM As opposed to this look which is what was plaguing us the last 8 years... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted Tuesday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:47 PM What do you guys think of Ryan Hall? He explains things well and is measured when talking about the uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter. I started beating the desk in November in the La Niña thread that the trough over or near Japan was new and would maintain the trough in the east. Still important to at least keep a ridge out of Japan if not a trough imho. Though not a trough, that 15 day map is close enough to neutral not to hurt us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want 2 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:54 PM Just now, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want It's crazy that you're saying this, I JUST looked at it and said to myself "well, it has a progressive bias." Weenies sure think alike. I was bored in the downtime between model cycles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want JMA too somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:55 PM 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want It’s a fantastic model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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