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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought, lol Ah well...guess we just gotta see what we can squeeze out of this one and move on to whatever comes next. At least we've got the cold with the snowpack :lol:

It’s worth watching because there’s small intricacies in the evolution that have big impact. The euro actually was better with heights and SS but worse as the n/s outran the phasing a bit which hurt the system downstream for us. 

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need that Great Lakes Low out of there!

Not gonna happen we have to try to make it work. It can. We got a decent snow last year with a GLL. We got MECS storms in 1966 and 1987 with a similar setup so a bigger event isn’t even impossible. But I know it makes it a lot harder. 

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine.  

I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO.  

We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 

 

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24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

MJO passes through phase 1 with some amplitude then into phase 2 later in the month. Which is great. That is a nice signal for sustained cold. If we miss the next storm we will have other chances this month. Maybe after a relaxation?

GEFS.png

 

I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period.  Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7.

 

Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.

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8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period.  Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7.

 

Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.

Spaghetti plots are all really good. Some with far less amplitude. But I think it might be a given at this point. We are exiting the COD into phase 8 right now. 

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18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO.  

We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 

 

I agree. If the jack is 2" and that jack is over me, then I really won't complain. If the jack is 25" and I get 6" then I'll be annoyed.

Dumb logic, but then again I'm not very logical when it comes to snow.

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