January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[StormyClearweather]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Looks very Euro'ish at 102hrs

Except with far lighter QPF. But agree in general.

[Weather Will]

Transfers to coast at 4am Monday WB 0Z ICON

[LP08]

Went to congrats Pa pretty quickly in here.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks very Euro'ish at 102hrs

Yep

[TSSN+]

Just now, StormyClearweather said:

Except with far lighter QPF. But agree in general.

We don’t pay attention to icon for qpf, or for much in general. 

[Terpeast]

Verbatim light snow to sleet/ice then dry slot for DC metro

[Weather Will]

10am Monday. 0Z ICON.

[mitchnick]

Kuchie

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

ICON would get snow in here before sunset on Sunday 

Seems to be the trend. I think the euro had like a 5-6pm start time

[TSSN+]

Only thing should be taken somewhat seriously on the icon is the low track. It isn’t great with qpf and its snow maps always lower than any model. 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Kuchie

That entire snow path is well north of everything I'm worried about Kansas 

[aldie 22]

Gfs may come 100 miles north and bullseye DC but you know 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

Seems to be the trend. I think the euro had like a 5-6pm start time

Tracking around 8pm for last euro run.

[T. August]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Tracking around 8pm for last euro run.

You are correct

[Solution Man]

Just now, T. August said:

You are correct

I just want some snow, we need to get on the board forum wide.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Gfs may come 100 miles north and bullseye DC but you know 

 I'd take that

[jayyy]

Great post. Helps ease the nerves around here. I still think DC will still mix with some ice but I think 00z Euro trends slightly south (DC bullseye or just north) and 00z GFS trends slightly north (Fredericksburg bullseye or just south of DC)

Based on historical precedent of storms tending to be a bit north of where models depict them, I think that the latitude between DC and Baltimore may be best positioned for this one as they are far enough north for better thermals and south enough for heavier precip. The trend is overall nudging north over the past 24 hours. Not a huge jump but enough that I’d be much rather be in C MD than C VA currently.

[stormtracker]

Yall ready?  Hoping the GFS comes in a little north and juiced. 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yall ready?  Hoping the GFS comes in a little north and juiced. 

Hoping the Euro comes in a little south.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yall ready?  Hoping the GFS comes in a little north and juiced. 

Let’s go

 

[ChillinIt]

Just now, bncho said:

Hoping the Euro comes in a little south.

Hal Yea!!!

[Ji]

Yall ready?  Hoping the GFS comes in a little north and juiced. 

Actually don’t want gfs to come north yet. We will have plenty of time

[notvirga!]

I think gfs comes more north but not expecting a huge jump. Bulls eye probably gets close to dc latitude wise

[TSSN+]

Can we keep the banter down with the wish casting, guessing, etc… 

[stormtracker]

Ok...only out to 60.   s/w out west seems more robust. Confluence is about the same

[Solution Man]

Norther shift coming 

[stormtracker]

Noteable differences out west with our s/w. seems a bit more amp'd.    And out east with the confluence...pretty much the same

[Terpeast]

66. S/w stronger, confluence same, NA vortex a touch west

[stormtracker]

s/w out west is definitely more amp'd and robust so far....nobody get excited.  Too early

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

66. S/w stronger, confluence same, NA vortex a touch west

I'm at 81...it's def stronger.  Just not sure what that means so far, especially since the confluence is the same