DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Just now, Shad said: looks juicier at 75..... It's also more south with the low and h5 more strung out with a sloppier connection of streams. I'll hold judgement but don't love it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM 15 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time? Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts SS getting held back/left behind a bit makes it hard to gain much neutral tilt to get that orientation to climb the way we want it. Maybe it'll pull it off anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM snowing lightly at 7am Sat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. Fair point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM moderate just to the south over northern neck. I think that's the brick wall rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM well hold a minute...moderate makes it up to DC. Like literally I-95 marks the northern extent of moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. You’re still going to hit hard limits with chaos theory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM Just now, stormtracker said: This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer.. 96 is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM @CAPE loves 99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6. Further west is 2-4. Northern neck has the most 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM @Bob Chillincoming at 84! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6. Further west is 2-4. Northern neck has the most I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Eastern shore special. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Not bad for city dwellers S and E. Northern crew just needs slight adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM I like where I am in the Northern Neck for this one.....this is how we typcailly win in our area........Seems to be simiar to the ICON and probably what the Canadian will show, Euro playing a little catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM Sooo close to being sooo much better. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Not bad for city dwellers S and E. Northern crew just needs slight adjustments. A nw tick of 50 to 75 miles puts us all in warning level. Snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @Bob Chillincoming at 84! way ahead of you. He does well. 4-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: That's a crippling storm for northern Alabama and Louisiana 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:01 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Sooo close to being sooo much better. Sadly true, but I don't think we can get to where we need to be. I'm ok with 2-4/3-5 so long as we don't get fringejobbed again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Not bad for city dwellers S and E. Northern crew just needs slight adjustments. Slight adjustments are hard...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: way ahead of you. He does well. 4-6 I’ll take it! Best run so far for southern areas. Now we need Euro onboard. Hopefully you all can get in on the action as trends happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: A nw tick of 50 to 75 miles puts us all in warning level. Snows I hope it's easier to get a nw tick than a north tick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sooo close to being sooo much better. We might live too far north for snow anymore. 5 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Looks like 1/26/1987 with lighter totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM So yeah...reset our expectations and this could be a decent little event. I like it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not bad for city dwellers S and E. Northern crew just needs slight adjustments. Don't overlook the Roanoke/Penhook deathband jack... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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