burgertime Posted Tuesday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:27 PM 15 hours ago, StormyClearweather said: That's what makes you the best at it. We had someone similar in the SE forum when I lived down there (h/t @burgertime) before he moved off to Europe. His go-to was "BOOM!" I'll gladly take either a "BOOM!" or a "FOLKS." Really hoping you guys and the SE get it soon as well. Fun little fact I stole the "BOOM" from the "boom goes the dynamite" guy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:31 PM Rgem not bad looking either at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside. it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just gotta' get that NC batch up here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon Nope. It stays here. It’s ours 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:34 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem not bad looking either at the end. Yeah, pretty nice. Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit. Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast. But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine. The high end of that would bring DCA to double digits for the season. They haven’t had a double digit season since 21-22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM 34 minutes ago, somecallmetim said: It's almost as if global climate interactions and the ability to decipher chaos in the system at long leads are incredibly complex. I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Speaking of southern stream...do you think that stays active like it has been so far? I always like to see the gulf doing things in the winter, and the modeling doesn't seem to have any shortage of waves coming from there. But I could be looking at it wrong too, lol This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol Does it continue? Idk. Gut says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Nope. It stays here. It’s ours No, you misunderstand. You get yours, but we get ours plus yours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM GFS running. Let's get our forum-wide 3-6" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:38 PM 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, pretty nice. Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit. Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast. But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. I certainly don't mind those when we get more than 1 and that ends up being the winter. A second one in a week reminds me of last year when I had two warning level events up here. The 4" outside from yesterday looks great, wouldn't mind adding 4 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside. it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. I won't give up until Gwen does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol Does it continue? Idk. Guy says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active they, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead Mjo has become stronger and is progged to stay in Phase 1 longer. Odd for a Niña and much more common in a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling. But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win. There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:40 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win. There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one. I wouldn't mind a 5-6 week stretch like what happened in 14 or kinda what happened in 15. Hitting with those borderline events which our areas maximize potential on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM 1 hour ago, Amped said: The 500mb troff collapses, so the precip does too. A subtle but seemingly critical difference between the Euro and GFS has to do with timing/degree of interaction with NS shortwave energy(of course) digging southward that's associated with the vorticity lobe south of Hudson. GFS phases some of that energy sooner and acts to pick up the southern low, placing it closer to the coast. Euro is lesser/later with the interaction, so that energy acts so suppress/kick the low offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM In case you didn't see it, 6z Gefs was on board for a moderate event at least. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010700&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM GFS so far remains largely unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM You can all keep your frost bitten snowy mid Atlantic hands off our central NC snowstorm this weekend please! Now go back to shoveling your driveways and sledding 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM It's just setting our expectations...or resetting them at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:47 PM 1 minute ago, konksw said: It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. Triple phase storms show up at long leads because (usually) there is a phase no matter what. Big dogs have special ingredients. They aren't subtle. 93 tripled and became a record breaking beast but a large strong storm was already a near guaranty well in advance. Its been a long time since the last triple....maybe we're due... heh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:47 PM GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far. H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Phasing looks very sloppy this run compared to some of the prior runs (thru 60). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far. H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Just now, yoda said: Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play We could win on a moderate event this way if we are all setting expectations on a 3-5'er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Just now, yoda said: Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play That's what I thought the Nam was smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:51 PM Ok, gotta just mainly look at SFC...gulf low is obviously still there. Let's see what, if anything, we can get out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Well, whatever we do get out of the gulf is headed toward some nice cold air. Friday AM temps: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM looks juicier at 75..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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