mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades. If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately! Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late. But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling. But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks like a 2-4 on the icon 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Shad said: ICON is going to be another big hit for most of Virginia Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg. ICON with right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg. I think that's a way most of us can win vs relying on the coastal to climb the coast via a clean phase. A little interaction should keep the precip intact as this propagates eastward into a decent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ICON did ok with the most recent storm? I believe it was on team euro with keeping the goods dc and south which ended up verifying? Didn’t waffle too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Basically a 3 to 5 incher. Where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I can't say I love seeing a GL low, but I guess if it's cold, it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg. Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Still snowing lightly on ICON at end of run too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Wow. I left yesterday evening after reading panels of 38" for DC and a beautiful bowling ball vort. This morning, we're lucky to get 5". I love this hobby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Bob Chill said: Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb @Bob Chill what’s your way too early thinking for us in this neck of the woods? 2-4/3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Bob Chill said: Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb Exactly what I'm hoping for. Some degree of phasing that keeps the juiced system together as it moves towards the coast. If we can get the low to about the OBX that should push decent snow over most of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just gotta' get that NC batch up here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Just gotta' get that NC batch up here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon Goodness. Man I'm think I'm getting the heck out of the "will it north" business I'm telling ya, lol You push bit up that hill to your doorstep and then it go tumbling back down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Buddy1987 said: @Bob Chill what’s your way too early thinking for us in this neck of the woods? 2-4/3-6? Yea, it's been looking like that on the balance for like 3 days. Because things are strung out when they get here, big rates is prob unlikely. But temps below freezing and frozen ground will maximize lighter rates. Our area in general looks close to the sweet spot outside of a bomb. Even a bomb works quite well but it includes jealousy hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, hstorm said: Still snowing lightly on ICON at end of run too. Ignore this. I was looking at 98 hours and my tired brain thought it was end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like a 2-4 on the icon Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside. it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 hours ago, StormyClearweather said: That's what makes you the best at it. We had someone similar in the SE forum when I lived down there (h/t @burgertime) before he moved off to Europe. His go-to was "BOOM!" I'll gladly take either a "BOOM!" or a "FOLKS." Really hoping you guys and the SE get it soon as well. Fun little fact I stole the "BOOM" from the "boom goes the dynamite" guy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Rgem not bad looking either at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside. it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just gotta' get that NC batch up here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon Nope. It stays here. It’s ours 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem not bad looking either at the end. Yeah, pretty nice. Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit. Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast. But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine. The high end of that would bring DCA to double digits for the season. They haven’t had a double digit season since 21-22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 34 minutes ago, somecallmetim said: It's almost as if global climate interactions and the ability to decipher chaos in the system at long leads are incredibly complex. I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Speaking of southern stream...do you think that stays active like it has been so far? I always like to see the gulf doing things in the winter, and the modeling doesn't seem to have any shortage of waves coming from there. But I could be looking at it wrong too, lol This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol Does it continue? Idk. Gut says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Nope. It stays here. It’s ours No, you misunderstand. You get yours, but we get ours plus yours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS running. Let's get our forum-wide 3-6" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, pretty nice. Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit. Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast. But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. I certainly don't mind those when we get more than 1 and that ends up being the winter. A second one in a week reminds me of last year when I had two warning level events up here. The 4" outside from yesterday looks great, wouldn't mind adding 4 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside. it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. I won't give up until Gwen does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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