Prestige Worldwide Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pretty decent signal for a big dog in the long range on the EuroAI. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025010700&fh=336 Ai is the new king imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Man I am salivating at that 6Z GFS. I know it’s not a bomb but it’s a perfect moderate daytime snow on snow event for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Ai is the new king imho. Probably should have added this link with it too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025010700&fh=336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ukie snowfall ensembles. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010706&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, mitchnick said: Ukie snowfall ensembles. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010706&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 You gotta take a screenshot or save those somehow - they are locked for Pivotal premium users. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You gotta take a screenshot or save those somehow - they are locked for Pivotal premium users. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Man I am salivating at that 6Z GFS. I know it’s not a bomb but it’s a perfect moderate daytime snow on snow event for us. It would be great for the Ravens game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Man I am salivating at that 6Z GFS. I know it’s not a bomb but it’s a perfect moderate daytime snow on snow event for us. Yea that's perfect. I don't have to go into work and can just sit back with the wife and watch it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I'm thinking we get an extended winter "thaw" in February, then a last gasp of winter late February into early March. Just a wag, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it. Cansips and Euro are looking like a weakish Modoki Niño. If right, that along with cooling global oceans, may turn out OK as long as the PDO cooperates too. Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though I hope not. Otherwise, it seems like it will basically be just a repeat of last winter unless this Saturday storm suddenly morphs back into a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Starting to feel like a colder version of last January where we had a nice 10 day run of snow and cold. This cold seems like it has a little more hang time though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always Agree with all this but recently we’ve seen waves that rely on baroclinicity out down impressive qpf, not just around here but I’ve seen that trend. I spend a lot of time up in Vermont and they’ve had a few crazy dumps up there in recent years where a progressive frontal wave dropped 20” without much dynamics or amplitude to the wave. Seems there is a higher bar than there used to be with these things. To be clear I’m not saying huge upside but it doesn’t seem to take much to squeeze out a decent snow of the wave takes the right track and there is a decent temp gradient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just looking at 6Z euro and it’s another cold event for Saturday. Pack refresher 1-3 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, Ji said: Euro showed about 3-4? Randy made it sound like a complete miss Thsts not bad for 4 days out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I think Kuchera maps should be banned... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. Gotta love La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The EURO did juice up quite a bit from 00z the 12z runs today should be interesting.....the ICON has been very consistent the past several runs for this event for what its worth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. The 500mb troff collapses, so the precip does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The NAM looks nice at the end of its run but it is the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. Upper levels lose lift and instability. Moisture is still there but the mechanism to wring it out gets pulled apart from messy interaction. Think of it like 3-4 way tug of war, very confusing and nobody usually wins. Doesn't mean that's locked in though. Just how it looks now. Northern stream is notorious for mid range surprises (in all directions). Difficult to model. @psuhoffmani agree 100%. We can have epic dry periods in any season but the last 4 years or so has taught me the same thing. When precip happens, a propensity to bust on the high side seems far more common than the other way around. If it pulls north all juiced up, my gut says it translates down stream no matter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Shad said: The NAM looks nice at the end of its run but it is the NAM Basically all northern stream. New twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Basically all northern stream. New twist. Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol The main vort is northern stream. The vort in the sw sorta lost its identity. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010712&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Also wild to me that we are in 2025 and we still have all these different takes on weather from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Also wild to me that we are in 2025 and we still have all these different takes on weather from the models. It's almost as if global climate interactions and the ability to decipher chaos in the system at long leads are incredibly complex. 2 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades. If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately! Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late. But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades. If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately! Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late. But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL Looked at Accuweather last night and it’s below average throughout the rest of the month with no respite. Been a while since that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol Speaking of southern stream...do you think that stays active like it has been so far? I always like to see the gulf doing things in the winter, and the modeling doesn't seem to have any shortage of waves coming from there. But I could be looking at it wrong too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ICON is going to be another big hit for most of Virginia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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