midatlanticweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the last storm didn't listen to me May need to outsource to get it fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro stuck again. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nevermind..running...at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So, noticing some changes on the euro. It has a stronger nrn vort and digging more than 18z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So its a positive change, but still appears as though the northern vort will run out ahead, but it did take a step toward a stronger diggier northern vort. There is more interaction than 18z, but not not as much as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So for all that, it looks like it's gonna be just about the same as 18z. Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So its a positive change, but still appears as though the northern vort will run out ahead, but it did take a step toward a stronger diggier northern vort. There is more interaction than 18z, but not not as much as the GFS So basically that interaction there is the panel where we kinda know how the rest of the run goes after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Go to bed yall. See ya for 12z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The Euro is a pretty a classic "The PV ate my storm" fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go to bed yall. See ya for 12z. Thank god. I am freaking exhausted. No more snow until 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I mean yeah, its nothing big... but half of the 00z EPS members get 2" or more of snow into DC metro. I'd take a 1-3" refresher on Saturday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 36 minutes ago, yoda said: 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw Sold for me - after 3 from Monday let’s get some more down. Plus, snow for the ravens / Steelers playoff game would be dope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6z GEFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS Not as good as 0z I believe. Snowfall mean shifted SE from 0z, so even though that doesn't look bad, the trend is consistent with other modeling pushing the best eastward. NE actually improved thanks to their sticking out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiwEuro showed about 3-4?Randy made it sound like a complete miss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro showed about 3-4? Randy made it sound like a complete miss 6z coming as good....or better maybe. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 MehTravelers advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Meh Travelers advisory Plenty of time for minor changes in the trough for improvements. Yeah, it could get worse, but an inch or 2 seems like the basement on most models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Meh, Eps snowfall leaner than 0z. Tough hobby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Meh Travelers advisory It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, yoda said: 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 End of the 00z Euro and 06z GFS appear to flood the country with Barney. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: End of the 00z Euro and 06z GFS appear to flood the country with Barney. Wow. Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. Yea I think we have until Valentine's Day week, then we flip into spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea I think we have until Valentine's Day week, then we flip into spring. If we actually get 6-7 weeks of a favorable pattern, that is a huge win. Up to chance what materializes from it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: End of the 00z Euro and 06z GFS appear to flood the country with Barney. Wow. The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it mid month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper camp is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it late month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper cam is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is I'm thinking we get an extended winter "thaw" in February, then a last gasp of winter late February into early March. Just a wag, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it. Cansips and Euro are looking like a weakish Modoki Niño. If right, that along with cooling global oceans, may turn out OK as long as the PDO cooperates too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Pretty decent signal for a big dog in the long range on the EuroAI. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025010700&fh=336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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