rjvanals Posted Tuesday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:43 AM GEFS is still bullish for a warning level event Saturday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:43 AM All I want is enough snow so that the airports get more than last year. If that happens papers would be written about this winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Tuesday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:44 AM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. Can you pretty please fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 AM 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of OC, we will be above freezing. But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Can you pretty please fix it. the last storm didn't listen to me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:49 AM 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. So if we're talking about a timing difference...I'm wondering if there's a scenario where the models don't resolve that until the pieces are here on like Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:50 AM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now Yeah it's pretty close - I don't like that we have high heights out ahead of the trough with this storm. Make a composite of 15 GOA or -PNA ridges, and 13 or 14 times it evolves too warm for us to have snow.. it is close to the coldest time of the year, but we need a better pattern imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:51 AM Chuck, you're right a ridge there is not ideal, but if we couldn't get a snowstorm in that look we would almost NEVER get them in cold enso seasons or with a -EPO. We do sometimes get lucky with this exact kind of evolution, if we have a -AO and -NAO. It's not the ideal perfect HECS look no, but its about as good as we get in a cold enso season with a -PDO. It's still negative just not as much so. We do get snowstorms in a -PDO, its just harder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 04:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:54 AM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chuck, you're right a ridge there is not ideal, but if we couldn't get a snowstorm in that look we would almost NEVER get them in cold enso seasons or with a -EPO. We do sometimes get lucky with this exact kind of evolution, if we have a -AO and -NAO. It's not the ideal perfect HECS look no, but its about as good as we get in a cold enso season with a -PDO. It's still negative just not as much so. We do get snowstorms in a -PDO, its just harder. ENSO is just a mover of the Pacific pattern, not something that trumps it. Wavelengths at our latitude make the difference, so you would be more accurate measuring +PNA or -PNA events for snowstorms. It does also connect with the STJ though, but you still need cold, and it's just not coming or "reloading" from now to the time of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 04:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:55 AM First can kick of the season? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted Tuesday at 05:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:02 AM 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now If I remember correctly it was the JMA that first sniffed out the 2006 storm. Thundersnow and foot of snow here in NOVA. It was a lucky break in otherwise uneventful winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 05:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 AM 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the last storm didn't listen to me Yeah man it didn't react to you very well and decided to troll by putting the squeeze on our yards...you are hereby removed as our ambassador to the storms. Hrmph! *turns away stuffily* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Tuesday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:09 AM 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the last storm didn't listen to me May need to outsource to get it fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM Euro stuck again. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:23 AM Nevermind..running...at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:28 AM So, noticing some changes on the euro. It has a stronger nrn vort and digging more than 18z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:32 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:32 AM So its a positive change, but still appears as though the northern vort will run out ahead, but it did take a step toward a stronger diggier northern vort. There is more interaction than 18z, but not not as much as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:33 AM So for all that, it looks like it's gonna be just about the same as 18z. Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 05:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So its a positive change, but still appears as though the northern vort will run out ahead, but it did take a step toward a stronger diggier northern vort. There is more interaction than 18z, but not not as much as the GFS So basically that interaction there is the panel where we kinda know how the rest of the run goes after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 AM Go to bed yall. See ya for 12z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 05:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 AM The Euro is a pretty a classic "The PV ate my storm" fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Tuesday at 06:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:15 AM 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go to bed yall. See ya for 12z. Thank god. I am freaking exhausted. No more snow until 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 07:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:02 AM I mean yeah, its nothing big... but half of the 00z EPS members get 2" or more of snow into DC metro. I'd take a 1-3" refresher on Saturday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 10:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:06 AM 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Tuesday at 10:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:43 AM 36 minutes ago, yoda said: 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiw Sold for me - after 3 from Monday let’s get some more down. Plus, snow for the ravens / Steelers playoff game would be dope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 11:12 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:12 AM 6z GEFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 11:24 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:24 AM 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS Not as good as 0z I believe. Snowfall mean shifted SE from 0z, so even though that doesn't look bad, the trend is consistent with other modeling pushing the best eastward. NE actually improved thanks to their sticking out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 11:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:30 AM 2-4... maybe 3-6 i81 corridor east on 06z GFS for Saturday fwiwEuro showed about 3-4?Randy made it sound like a complete miss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:38 AM 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro showed about 3-4? Randy made it sound like a complete miss 6z coming as good....or better maybe. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 11:42 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:42 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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