psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: They really should be embarrassed. you think they have shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days Can we please get a shut the F*CK UP CHUCK. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, psuhoffman said: you think they have shame? I mean, you would think so? I get it that hype = ratings, but this is the first time I've ever seen a legit public news source do something that outrageous. It's probably gonna become the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 lol, they deleted it 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden Or the Commandos run defense against EVERYONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, they deleted it Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, they deleted it Now that the horses have all escaped the barn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff. Kammerer on NBC4 made some reference to it - basically saying "let's slow down folks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They really should be embarrassed. It was a click bait headline as the post went through all the different model simulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning. In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. yeah - obviously it's warmer. 25 years ago DC is probably in the teens / low 20s during this. But we can still snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A it was showing before. Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of Ocean City, we will be above freezing. That High pressure organizing in the Gulf of Alaska is the reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GEFS is still bullish for a warning level event Saturday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 All I want is enough snow so that the airports get more than last year. If that happens papers would be written about this winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. Can you pretty please fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of OC, we will be above freezing. But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Can you pretty please fix it. the last storm didn't listen to me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. So if we're talking about a timing difference...I'm wondering if there's a scenario where the models don't resolve that until the pieces are here on like Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now Yeah it's pretty close - I don't like that we have high heights out ahead of the trough with this storm. Make a composite of 15 GOA or -PNA ridges, and 13 or 14 times it evolves too warm for us to have snow.. it is close to the coldest time of the year, but we need a better pattern imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Chuck, you're right a ridge there is not ideal, but if we couldn't get a snowstorm in that look we would almost NEVER get them in cold enso seasons or with a -EPO. We do sometimes get lucky with this exact kind of evolution, if we have a -AO and -NAO. It's not the ideal perfect HECS look no, but its about as good as we get in a cold enso season with a -PDO. It's still negative just not as much so. We do get snowstorms in a -PDO, its just harder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chuck, you're right a ridge there is not ideal, but if we couldn't get a snowstorm in that look we would almost NEVER get them in cold enso seasons or with a -EPO. We do sometimes get lucky with this exact kind of evolution, if we have a -AO and -NAO. It's not the ideal perfect HECS look no, but its about as good as we get in a cold enso season with a -PDO. It's still negative just not as much so. We do get snowstorms in a -PDO, its just harder. ENSO is just a mover of the Pacific pattern, not something that trumps it. Wavelengths at our latitude make the difference, so you would be more accurate measuring +PNA or -PNA events for snowstorms. It does also connect with the STJ though, but you still need cold, and it's just not coming or "reloading" from now to the time of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 First can kick of the season? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006. The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync. The rest of the pattern is nearly identical. Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. Day of storm 2006 Day of Threat now If I remember correctly it was the JMA that first sniffed out the 2006 storm. Thundersnow and foot of snow here in NOVA. It was a lucky break in otherwise uneventful winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the last storm didn't listen to me Yeah man it didn't react to you very well and decided to troll by putting the squeeze on our yards...you are hereby removed as our ambassador to the storms. Hrmph! *turns away stuffily* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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