January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

worth it

[psuhoffman]

This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 

[Ji]

This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone

This is pretty much an El Niño storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS is weak sauce with the clipper at range no surprise, but wants to drop the hammer next week. PV is wobbling around the GL.

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 

but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly

[Ji]

Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly

I predict 0" from this storm in DC and Baltimore, maybe a dusting on the front end. 

[jayyy]

Sign me up

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 

That composite is skewed by a LOT of nino storms...its not as far off if you only look at cold enso non nino snowstorms.  The fact we are not in a nino lowers our chances of a major snowstorm significantly, but often when we do get the fluke cold enso snowstorm they do not match the larger composite.  Also, there is a huge difference IMO between the -PDO regime we've been in recently and the coming look with a full ridge bridge from the NAO all the way into the north pacific, and a trough underneith it towards Hawaii.  It's not nearly as hostile and those other factors around it matter just as much. 

It's not our BEST snowstorm look but we've had snows in worse looks than that.  Its maybe a 7/10 look imo.  I don't think the HECS is likely but I think we have a legit threat at something like the ICON or tonights GFS run spit out. 

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden

wasn't that what the GFS was doing to this weekend's storm at this range?

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The death knell.

They really should be embarrassed.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 

Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress.  There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm.  In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

They really should be embarrassed.  

you think they have shame?

[stormtracker]

I'm still legit excited.  The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress.  There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm.  In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. 

Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm still legit excited.  The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days

Can we please get a shut the F*CK UP CHUCK. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

you think they have shame?

I mean, you would think so?  I get it that hype = ratings, but this is the first time I've ever seen a legit public news source do something that outrageous.   It's probably gonna become the new norm.

[stormtracker]

lol, they deleted it

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden

Or the Commandos run defense against EVERYONE! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, they deleted it

Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff.

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. 

DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, they deleted it

Now that the horses have all escaped the barn...

[Warm Nose]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm still legit excited.  The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff.

Kammerer on NBC4 made some reference to it - basically saying "let's slow down folks"

[rjvanals]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

They really should be embarrassed.  

It was a click bait headline as the post went through all the different model simulations 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning.

In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. 

yeah - obviously it's warmer.  25 years ago DC is probably in the teens / low 20s during this.  But we can still snow.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A it was showing before. 

Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006

48 hours before

48 hours before our current threat

The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it.  If that was fixed this has the same potential. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006

48 hours before

48 hours before our current threat

The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it.  If that was fixed this has the same potential. 

I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of Ocean City, we will be above freezing. That High pressure organizing in the Gulf of Alaska is the reason.