January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

So at 90, trough is more positively tilted than 18z...but is that because of speed or it's just...uh...more positively tilted...

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm at 72 looks like GFS is not surrendering without a fight. 

at 84 the STJ wave is "better" but the flow over the top is flatter...

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If I had to split hairs, only trend i don't care for is last 4 gfs runs the Southwest energy is a little slower each time to come out. May not make a huge difference.

it does if it allows the NS to get out ahead instead of diving in behind.

[wxmeddler]

More positively tilted and a bit of a wave disconnect in over the northern GL's at 90 hrs.

[stormtracker]

We're looking at a back step it seems.  I'm sorry yall

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

I looked at euro enso forecast. We could be trying the Nino thing again next year with hopefully less blowtorch

If we can get a non super nino with a better PDO

[wasnow215]

Maybe I'm being too simplistic but hour 78 looked a lot like the 0z Icon just out.

[wxmeddler]

The H5 over upper midwest has been sheared out into a big + tilt trough, not what we're looking for.

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We're looking at a back step it seems.  I'm sorry yall

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. 

[psuhoffman]

But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right

[stormtracker]

Just an unfortunately more positive tilt...northern vort outruns the southern vort sadly.

 POSITIVE:  It still gets snows into the area.  Waiting to see how much

[ravensrule]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. 

I’ll take my 2” and be happy. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. 

We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I’ll take my 2” and be happy. 

Ditto

[andyhb]

The death knell.

[stormtracker]

I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for?  No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor?

[stormtracker]

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

I can get on board with this any day of the week

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

Now I’m ecstatic. Yea baby. 

[VA Mad Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

It does make me feel better

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We can still get a win that way, but it might involve rooting for the NS to just GTF out of the way enough instead of a sloppy phase

The last time you said that that GL low screwed us over in March 2018 and in fact did NOT get out of the way...I remember that post distinctly for some reason, lol I'd rather not have to root for that...because that seems to be a chaotic needle thread that we don't do well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2".  

That's what happens when you lock in a hecs thread 6 days out. That's karma.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for?  No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor?

Nah I'd take that. Ya just hope it's not gonna get worse from here and go to a Euro solution...

[psuhoffman]

At least this GFS run knows where its supposed to put the death band damnit

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The last time you said that that GL low screwed us over in March 2018 and in fact did NOT get out of the way. I remember that post distinctly for some reason, lol I'd rather not have to root for that...because that seems to be a chaotic needle thread that we don't do well.

it is what it is

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean look...is it the moisture bomb we're looking for?  No...it looks to be a 4-7 thang...and I mean...are we really gonna complain if that's our floor?

Since I got three whole inches today…no, no I would not.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is that a clipper on the gfs behind the weekend storm? That can't be?! Talk about a unicorn.

[psuhoffman]

[Maestrobjwa]

One thing for sure though...to my amateur eyes the next couple weeks look cold and active on these models with the gulf looking open for business. Me thinks we'll have other chances even if this one doesn't work out...what say you?