January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021.  DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area.  Another storm threat in that window got suppressed.  Bad luck.  We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier. 

Was that the storm that gave us 7 inches in 2 days….the one where the rgem gave us 40 inches?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. 

The threat is legit, just wish the Euro and GFS were on opposite sides right now lol

ETA:  its complicated though with multiple SWs having to play nice and phase, which does lower the odds it pulls it off, but also increases the chances the best model might miss it and you get a scenario like when the JMA schooled everyone in 2006.

[Ji]

Hawk tuah to you to.

She got rich of dumb moronic guys. The only
Thing keeping our economy going is only
Fans and hawk tua

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The threat is legit, just wish the Euro and GFS were on opposite sides right now lol

Def legit.  I'd like to see some movement one way or the other by tomm night tbh. 

[notvirga!]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Was that the storm that gave us 7 inches in 2 days….the one where the rgem gave us 40 inches?

Yes that was it

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Was that the storm that gave us 7 inches in 2 days….the one where the rgem gave us 40 inches?

yes

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ji said:

She got rich of dumb moronic guys. The only
Thing keeping our economy going is only
Fans and hawk tua

I need to get rich off some dumb shit. These kids got it too easy.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone wants a big snowstorm

In other news water makes things wet, bears go in the woods, and Snape killed Dumbledore.

[Rosented1234]

Why am I staying up for the gfs run? I know it is just going to pull the rug out but I guess I need closure


.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

She got rich of dumb moronic guys. The only
Thing keeping our economy going is only
Fans and hawk tua

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My daughter was talking about why the vampire in her cartoon is blue, and my 10 year old son said..."it doesn't matter Vampires aren't real" and when she questioned how he knows said "because people are so stupid if they were real we would all be dead by now"

smart kid

[Rhino16]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

Hopefully some can come west to the mountains.

I’m not sure how Blacksburg Averages 24.7” of snow, but I’ve only been here a year and a half. Interesting to see there were 71.9” in 1996…

[Ji]

Just saw icon lol…that was a super close call for kinda sloppy phase

[stormtracker]

Not one major change through hour 30. 

[ravensrule]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, GFS is running.  Will we get FOLKS?  or FUCK!

Stay tuned

I want HOLY FUCK. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. 

RGEM missed the boat on the initial NS wave but its amplifying the STJ and second but weaker NS SW more...could be making a run at a different path to a good result, I guess we will see when the GGEM comes out soon but my concern would be that initial NS wave if it misses the chance to phase and ends up out in front could flatten the flow too much to allow the wave to climb until its too late.  But we've not seen that path (more amplified STJ and phase with the next SW) on guidance to test it yet. 

[Ji]

Not one major change through hour 30. 

Or 36.3

[stormtracker]

Still nothing major to report...sw vort my be a tad bit southwester...but nothing at all noteable 

[psuhoffman]

A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up.  This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time.  Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours. 

[Ji]

Still nothing major to report...sw vort my be a tad bit southwester...but nothing at all noteable 

Still nothing notable.

[Ji]

A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up.  This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time.  Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours. 

I looked at euro enso forecast. We could be trying the Nino thing again next year with hopefully less blowtorch

[stormtracker]

I need new ways to say the same shit.

It's nothing notable, noise level stuff...but nothing jumping out...yet

[psuhoffman]

Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results.  Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky.  Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately.  But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20". 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm at 72 looks like GFS is not surrendering without a fight. 

[Warm Nose]

Live look-in at this storm:

 

[stormtracker]

What I can tell you is that the GFS is holding on to that strong northern vort.   So far, this is not Euro like.  Good collection of northern stream energy in the vicinity 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results.  Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky.  Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately.  But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20". 

And with this week's weather we'd have snow on snow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

If I had to split hairs, only trend i don't care for is last 4 gfs runs the Southwest energy is a little slower each time to come out. May not make a huge difference.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Live look-in at this storm:

 

[stormtracker]

Tad bit juicier with the gulf low.  Don't read into that..just describing the model.  No idea where it's gonna go or how close it's gonna be...but again..confirming, it ain't going the way of the Euro