Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just saw icon lol…that was a super close call for kinda sloppy phase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Not one major change through hour 30. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, GFS is running. Will we get FOLKS? or FUCK! Stay tuned I want HOLY FUCK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. RGEM missed the boat on the initial NS wave but its amplifying the STJ and second but weaker NS SW more...could be making a run at a different path to a good result, I guess we will see when the GGEM comes out soon but my concern would be that initial NS wave if it misses the chance to phase and ends up out in front could flatten the flow too much to allow the wave to climb until its too late. But we've not seen that path (more amplified STJ and phase with the next SW) on guidance to test it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Not one major change through hour 30. Or 36.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Still nothing major to report...sw vort my be a tad bit southwester...but nothing at all noteable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up. This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time. Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Still nothing major to report...sw vort my be a tad bit southwester...but nothing at all noteable Still nothing notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 A thought on the lead time here...this is not a simple HECS threat we get sometimes in a split flow nino pattern where the NS is outta the Fng way and we can watch some juiced up STJ wave slowly come at us from a week away and nothing in the way to much it up. This is complicated with multiple wave interactions and is way more likely to not show up until a shorter lead time. Dec 2009 involved more NS interaction, but not nearly as much as complicated or noisy as this...and that was an example where there were hints and potential but we didnt start to get details or feel locked in until inside 100 hours. I looked at euro enso forecast. We could be trying the Nino thing again next year with hopefully less blowtorch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I need new ways to say the same shit. It's nothing notable, noise level stuff...but nothing jumping out...yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results. Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky. Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately. But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'm at 72 looks like GFS is not surrendering without a fight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Live look-in at this storm: 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 What I can tell you is that the GFS is holding on to that strong northern vort. So far, this is not Euro like. Good collection of northern stream energy in the vicinity 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lastly, we could get lucky with the GFS super bomb solution, but historically this type of scenario, even if it does come together...is more likely to have MECS not HECS level results. Too much can go wrong for our area to max out into HECS territory with these unless we get super lucky. Maybe we do, we've been super unlucky plenty lately. But if we end up with a 4-8 or 6-10" snowstorm from this type of setup that should be taken as a total run through the street naked win here...regardless of if some lucky shmucks somewhere to our northeast get 20". And with this week's weather we'd have snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If I had to split hairs, only trend i don't care for is last 4 gfs runs the Southwest energy is a little slower each time to come out. May not make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Live look-in at this storm: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Tad bit juicier with the gulf low. Don't read into that..just describing the model. No idea where it's gonna go or how close it's gonna be...but again..confirming, it ain't going the way of the Euro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So at 90, trough is more positively tilted than 18z...but is that because of speed or it's just...uh...more positively tilted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm at 72 looks like GFS is not surrendering without a fight. at 84 the STJ wave is "better" but the flow over the top is flatter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If I had to split hairs, only trend i don't care for is last 4 gfs runs the Southwest energy is a little slower each time to come out. May not make a huge difference. it does if it allows the NS to get out ahead instead of diving in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 More positively tilted and a bit of a wave disconnect in over the northern GL's at 90 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We're looking at a back step it seems. I'm sorry yall 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Ji said: I looked at euro enso forecast. We could be trying the Nino thing again next year with hopefully less blowtorch If we can get a non super nino with a better PDO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Maybe I'm being too simplistic but hour 78 looked a lot like the 0z Icon just out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The H5 over upper midwest has been sheared out into a big + tilt trough, not what we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We're looking at a back step it seems. I'm sorry yall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks like it is slowly going towards the middle ground models ie icon/cmc. I expect euro eventually heads that way too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just an unfortunately more positive tilt...northern vort outruns the southern vort sadly. POSITIVE: It still gets snows into the area. Waiting to see how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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