January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[SnowenOutThere]

You know people are bored when they’re debating the hour 84 NAM

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp.  

NE folks like it a lot and believe it a phase as well, but it doesn't really matter for more than 6 hours anyway. Lol

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A VERY good thread by Tomer:

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876446981427695730?t=a-tQxsazuaFUp2e8YcRQpw&s=19

Yea, let's reel this one in for everyone. Classic RIC -> BOS event.

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp.  

Whew.  Feel better with Super backup.   

 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam looks pretty good if I must say so, and I must.

I don’t think it would have got it done. The NS is not digging behind and getting out in front. That elongates the trough and won’t allow it to amplify and go negative which is what we need. The gfs so far is the only model really diving that NS Sw down behind the STJ wave. Others are close but once they miss that connection around hour 72 it’s over. 

[psuhoffman]

To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside 

If this goes that way how much do you think the region would get?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To clarify a minor to moderate event could be possible without that NS SW phasing in. But it wouldn’t have the GFS upside 

I'll shoot squirrel.  I don't need a elk!

Consequential measurable snowfall works for me.

[mitchnick]

Icon will probably work for me.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If this goes that way how much do you think the region would get?

It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet.  There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late).  But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll shoot squirrel.  I don't need a elk!

Consequential measurable snowfall works for me.

Fair enough I was just comparing the NAM to the GFS like solutions...a more modest event is still possible from where the NAM left off. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It isn't worth speculating on that, we haven't even figured out which scenario we're looking at yet.  There are several possible paths...I will say that if we don't get the full phase between the STJ and the two NS waves the next best possible solutions would be for the NS to amplify on its own (but it might be difficult to get it to track far enough south, or to get the STJ wave to track far enough NW without the NW interference (a sloppy partial phase might just shunt it south and stall its development until too late).  But both of those have more limited upside than the full phased bomb GFS solutions of course.  

I imagine there will be a better picture sometime on Wednesday?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Me after looking at the Euro:

 

I just logged in and saw this post but this is the hardest I’ve ever laughed at anything on this forum since Jebman‘s epic 2015 meltdown at the SNE dude lmao

[psuhoffman]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I imagine there will be a better picture sometime on Wednesday?

Maybe sooner, the divergence that leads to the different paths happens at only about 72 hours...so its possible the models latch onto a singular evolution soon, maybe even tonight. 

[Ji]

Fair enough I was just comparing the NAM to the GFS like solutions...a more modest event is still possible from where the NAM left off. 

Tired of modesty

[Warm Nose]

It's snow on snow ... the opportunity for that is to be appreciated even if we don't get to 'folks' accums.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Closed h5 isobar at 96 associated with the midwest vort on icon. That's new.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Tired of modesty

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Closed h5 isobar at 96 associated with the midwest vort on icon. That's new.

Opens back up....but damn its trying. And yes I am talking to myself, don't judge.

[Ralph Wiggum]

ICON is going to deliver.

Eta: SECSy s and e mid atl hit

[Ji]

Everyone wants a big snowstorm, but we have a long stretch of cold coming...I'm ok with building a snowpack also!

We also haven’t had anything worthy in years when the nao block breaks. Thinking that heather is becoming a myth

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON is going to deliver.

Close, but no cigar.  Nice lil 2-4 tho

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON is going to deliver.

Eta: SECSy s and e mid atl hit

Achtung. 

[psuhoffman]

ICON was half way between the NAM/Euro look at 84 hours and the GFS and we got a close miss on a major storm, and a minor snowfall. 

[stormtracker]

Well, GFS is running.  Will we get FOLKS?  or FUCK!

Stay tuned

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Close, but no cigar.  Nice lil 2-4 tho

Guess if we're big dog hunting no it didn't deliver. But trackable event and really damn close to something bigger imo. H5 dig was so close.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

We also haven’t had anything worthy in years when the nao block breaks. Thinking that heather is becoming a myth

We had a very close miss with the storm Jan 31-Feb2 2021.  DC-Baltimore area got 3-6" but just north got 12" plus starting with my area.  Another storm threat in that window got suppressed.  Bad luck.  We did get a nice hit at the end of a blocking period in March 2018 which would have been a 20" storm had it happened just a few weeks earlier. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, GFS is running.  Will we get FOLKS?  or FUCK!

Stay tuned

Why not both?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

ICON was half way between the NAM/Euro look at 84 hours and the GFS and we got a close miss on a major storm, and a minor snowfall. 

Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Achtung. 

Hawk tuah to you to.