StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 12Z 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 12Z Much more modest shift north than the parent ECMWF. Hopefully it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, IronTy said: We have a winter storm warning currently in swanton, luckily I just lined up somebody to plow the access road! How much is at the cabin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 12Z Yeah...just going by that 0.5" QPF line, it's definitely farther north and has a more west-east orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w. Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt. But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon). In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms. just my 2 cents 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 51 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w. Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt. But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon). In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms. just my 2 cents Everyone says “this never happens with rainstorms” but it does. They just don’t notice bc they don’t care. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Now that 18z euro is on TT, I looked at the N Atl vortex and the s/w. Those aren’t huge shifts between 12z and 18z at 500mb. The confluence is still there, but slightly weaker and more east. The s/w is a few dm stronger, but still with a neutral tilt. But the surface difference is dramatic. I do wonder if the Euro is overcorrecting at the surface and blip back a bit south (it won’t go as far south as gfs or icon). In addition, these shifts are typical at 500mb 4-5 days out, and we don’t usually notice these when they are cutters and rainstorms. just my 2 cents Great post. Helps ease the nerves around here. I still think DC will still mix with some ice but I think 00z Euro trends slightly south (DC bullseye or just north) and 00z GFS trends slightly north (Fredericksburg bullseye or just south of DC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Last 5 euro runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Last 5 euro runs. Actually, except for that 1 jog south, it's a surprisingly steady shift north. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Last 5 euro runs. The trend there is clear and apparent not a blip in regards to a more expansive precipitation field and storm track. Northern parts of this precipitation field is going to see higher snow ratios to overcome smaller qpf amounts typical winter stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 0Z 12K NAM compared to 18Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 24 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: the parent ECMWF. Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF? It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM is hella amp'd/robust vs 18z GFS. fwiw 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM is hella amp'd/robust vs 18z GFS. fwiw Well that’s nothing out of the norm. Nam is always Amped as heck at range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 NAM stronger s/w, but confluence also presses more SW. probably offset each other to some extent Not that this is worth much at this NAM’s range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I'm going to create an ultra platinum tag for him. He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! 35 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Curious, is there any meaningful "parent-child" relationship between the ECMWF and the ECMWF AI, besides they fact that they are created by the ECMWF? It seems like any data-driven AI model would be completely different from any numerical integration model.I’m not 100% sure, but I believe they use the same initial conditions. The AIFS is essentially predicting the next time step based on relationships between time steps learned from the ERA5 reanalysis, and then repeating this process out to 360 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! We got yall. Invite more WPC and other mets here. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type of work that is done when looking at the big picture. It’s not just hemming and hawing over every single deterministic output. Yes, it’s great to look at, but parsing the details on the why is why we love what we do. I’ve been utilizing Cluster Analysis via DESI v3.2 which I unfortunately can’t share and trying to see the behavior of ensembles and potential outcomes. Pete broke down the primary features and some sneaky elements that could very easily sway the forecast. I hope people get a lot out of the information provided. It’s one of the ways I learned about how things work in the synoptic world when it comes to Winter Systems. Years of just reading on here from previous Red taggers and knowledgeable posters. Been a great experience with a ton of laughs in the mix. Hopefully we can bring this one home! Lots of Millersville U Met grads around here (myself included). Cool to see the strength of that program and where it has landed folks over the years. . 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, katabatic said: How much is at the cabin? Don't know, unfortunately last week when we were there I forgot to turn my game camera back on before I left so I'm flying blind. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Lots of Millersville U Met grads around here (myself included). Cool to see the strength of that program and where it has landed folks over the years. . No question about that. So happy I went there for my degree. Met and made friends with some amazing people along the way. Hopefully all is well up in LNS territory! Let’s kick this January off with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We got yall. Invite more WPC and other mets here. Appreciate it, Randy!! There’s another poster in here from WPC as well, although for whatever reason I can’t remember his tag. He’s a red tagger that will pop in from time to time. He’s been super busy recently. I’ll have to ask him to check in over the weekend as we get close. Let’s reel this -ish in, shall we 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 66hrs on Cansips has the Atlantic 50/50 shrinking from prior runs and vort in the west is a touch west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon is north. Gotta wait how it does thru the shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 0Z ICON is well north compared to 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks very Euro'ish at 102hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ICON would get snow in here before sunset on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Looks very Euro'ish at 102hrs Except with far lighter QPF. But agree in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Transfers to coast at 4am Monday WB 0Z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Went to congrats Pa pretty quickly in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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