January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[notvirga!]

3 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I think DT coined those way back in the early 2000’s, including HECS…someone here coined BECS I think for real rather of god biblical east coast snowstorm…maybe for the 2016 storm…

Nah, becs was around in 2009. Maybe before 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they’re only good in marginal setups

I dunno, I often refer to them and am rarely disappointed. Maybe we just have alot of marginal setups in the last 8 or 9 years.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is going all in 

How can you interpret whether the GEFS it not simply following the leader ?  

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

As psu would say...tucked

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

As psu would say...tucked

Ffs there's a 967 due east of the DE/MD border. 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

its not over

Upper energy rolling through soon. Banding developing to my West and NW. Maybe get an additional inch. 

 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As psu would say...tucked

I mean, wow. That looks like a strong signal

[Ralph Wiggum]

Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches  New England

[real]

16 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Actually I wonder that too.  I know it stands for "Historic East Coast Snowstorm", but how is that defined?  I guess something that would make the Kocin-Uccellini list, perhaps.

For DCA - SEC -- 5 to 10 inches. MEC 10 to 18 inches.  HEC 18 +  The elusive BEC would be 30 +

[ravensrule]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok here.  I made a scale.   Tell me if yall agree

3-6 yo!

4-10 guys

10+ FOLKS

better?  I dunno. lol. maybe 12+?   This is a democracy.  

I would go with 12+ for the folks. 18+ is HOLY FOLKS. 

[North Balti Zen]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure 10" is a folks for PSU, but ok.   SV maps are shit, so prob could be more

It would be for those of us in northern Maryland to the east of PSU. It’s been a LONG time between drinks. 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches  New England

Wind machine!  Is this coastal any relation to the absolute monster right now up in the Gulf of Alaska heading north?

[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

MECS/HECS level.  But if yall want me to lower the criteria, I can.   Again, listen...8-12 is fucking great.     I save the key work for 12 or more.  But that's just me.

I was just asking.  I think it’s fair to be selective.  12”+ is fine, that’s actually only slightly more rare than 8” events since many of those go on to reach 12” also. We’re kinda a boom or bust snow climo here. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I would go with 12+ for the folks. 18+ is HOLY FOLKS. 

So...Papal approval then!

[North Balti Zen]

39 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

People were saying the northern folks are due in actuality, give the snow to @North Balti Zen now! 

Approved 

[Heisy]

This is almost under 120 hours we should start to see one model cave soon…. I thought the gfs was weaker with the N lobe so I’m shocked it tucked even more…

Interesting storm to track, euro shortly..


.

[Bob Chill]

31 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Are we getting into Folks, Jaws, @Bob Chill OMG surprise face territory?

I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. 

Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards.  Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 

18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Several members in the mid 950s are it approaches  New England

Nice wrap around for Atlanta. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. 

Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards.  Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 

18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol

Always good to hear from you, Bob!  I hope the new digs are working out well...those photos you've sent over the past few months are amazing!

Agree...another winter weather event is likely going to affect us this upcoming weekend.  Details, as you say, TBD (as always!).  I feel reasonably confident or at least hopeful that a decent event for many of us is a good possibility.  Doesn't even have to be a bomb, really.

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

You're right.  But nobody is paying for WB so those Kuchie works of art can stay hidden 

I think Kuchara gets a bad rap. Often when snowfall is low it’s due to a miss on meso banding and qpf was low. In this case the best lift missing the DGX also hurt ratios and kuchera was a bit high. But I’ve seen kuchera be more accurate than 10-1 maps more often than not.
 

I’d never use Kuchera if I was in the UHI or near water. You have to know climo. But 10-1 are way too low up here most of the time. 

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think Kuchara gets a bad rap. Often when snowfall is low it’s due to a miss on meso banding and qpf was low. In this case the best lift missing the DGX also hurt ratios and kuchera was a bit high. But I’ve seen kuchera be more accurate than 10-1 maps more often than not.
 

I’d never use Kuchera if I was in the UHI or near water. You have to know climo. But 10-1 are way too low up here most of the time. 

agree.  So you use 10:1 and make adjustments. or start at 12:1 and make adjustments.  I'd rather just know the amount of QPF a model is spitting out and figure it out from there.  Homey don't need an algo.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is almost under 120 hours we should start to see one model cave soon…. I thought the gfs was weaker with the N lobe so I’m shocked it tucked even more…

Interesting storm to track, euro shortly..


.

Here you go Heisey. 12z Gem at 90hrs top and 18z Gem at 84hrs along with a link for all 18z Gem if you're looking for something to do. Lol

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, Amped said:

Not saying the track is correct, but if it is, the jackpot should be Deep Creek Lake to Mount Washington.

Depends on the phase.  This is a miller b hybrid not a pure miller A. That’s ok we get crushed on miller b hybrids that have a STJ component sometimes. Its pure NS miller Bs that always fail for us.  
 

But these phase bombing lows often have a very tight wound CCB as they get going and the snow ends up closer to the SLP track than you would see in a mature miller a gulf low crawling up the coast. Sometimes the rain snow line collapses in close to the MSLP in these. 

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is we might flirt with danger with a wetter storm.  As always...thread the needle shit down our way

Unfortunately we have to flirt with disaster to get the win due to what I said above. It’s not a pure mature miller a that will have an expansive CCB precip field. The NS wave on top will prevent that until it phases and starts to bomb. It’s another delicate situation but sometimes these work out. Not everything can be Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 where some split flow STJ wave can be seen a week out workout much doubt.  Wish it was that easy more often. 

[stormtracker]

18z Euro...Meh.  Not budging 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

agree.  So you use 10:1 and make adjustments. or start at 12:1 and make adjustments.  I'd rather just know the amount of QPF a model is spitting out and figure it out from there.  Homey don't need an algo.

Oh I think that’s how it should be done to make an actual forecast. But if we’re posting a map either will have errors. 10-1 will be too high near the R/S line or in places stuck between bands and too low in jack zones. Kuchera the reverse. 

[Heisy]

Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite


.

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite


.

Is euro still holding energy back in the southwest or just not timing the phasing to our advantage?

[LongRanger]

the 18z GFS brings back the cold at the end of the run, with snow to New Orleans at 384, yeah, that's happening

[Steve25]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro still much different with N branch, one model is going to cave soon, icon/cmc is a decent compromise I guess. Should be a really interesting 00z suite


.

Does the euro show any accumulation? Or is it just a complete miss? 

[Interstate]

I would take my chances with the CMC as well

 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html