January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run.  I dunno

84 hour NAM so this is likely pointless but the southern energy was held back more compared to the GFS.

[mitchnick]

Beginning 72 hrs out from start time, I don't think the Nam did that bad with today's event.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Beginning 72 hrs out from start time, I don't think the Nam did that bad with today's event.

I beg to differ...it was too wet up this way. Some dang 9 inches...didn't even get half of that.

[mitchnick]

Icon promising at 102hrs

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

84 hour NAM so this is likely pointless but the southern energy was held back more compared to the GFS.

I can't tell whether that's actually what we'd like or not. I mean, it the NS moving faster than the SS the reason the Euro looks the way it does?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I beg to differ...it was too wet up this way. Some dang 9 inches...didn't even get half of that.

None of the models were perfect and they never will be. The vaunted Euro had me at 6" on last night's 0z run and I got 3". So a forecast from 3 days vs 12 hrs with same degree of error is better.

Plus, Nam did better in other areas, so you can't judge it from yby.

[mitchnick]

114hrs Icon looks real good

[mitchnick]

Kicker on the Icon will be a thorn in future runs I bet.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010618&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Kicker on the Icon will be a thorn in future runs I bet.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010618&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Eh its on and off with that feature, definitely a lot better than 12z overall. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Everyone gearing up for Happy Hour runs...

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

BTW Euro AI was swing a miss on the 12z run but not by much.

[mitchnick]

If the Icon took a decent step at 18z, maybe others will follow and Gfs hold. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

BTW Euro AI was swing a miss on the 12z run but not by much.

Heisey loves it, and Heisey knows his stuff, but I hate everything associated the the Euro. Lol

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Heisey loves it, and Heisey knows his stuff, but I hate everything associated the the Euro. Lol

I think it did well for the last event... don't think it can handle mesoscale details well but it never moved the heavy stuff far north and never lost sight of the event happening once it was relatively "locked" down. 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

None of the models were perfect and they never will be. The vaunted Euro had me at 6" on last night's 0z run and I got 3". So a forecast from 3 days vs 12 hrs with same degree of error is better.

Plus, Nam did better in other areas, so you can't judge it from yby.

Yeah that's true...I'm just a little road salty today don't mind me, lol

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If the Icon took a decent step at 19z, maybe others will follow and Gfs hold. 

Exactly. While the GFS has shown its bipolarity, it seems the other models have been taking their meds and are gently swinging in a good direction.

I don't need a HECS, nor am I looking for one. Just give me snow on snow...and let me be among the higher totals.

[notvirga!]

18z icon 

[Benjamn3]

Got some live rosin ready to go to make the outcomes enjoyable either way. Warm smoke hoping for cold smoke. Lolol

[mitchnick]

At 60hrs Gfs holding back that energy vs 12z. Ocean vort off Atlantic is pishing westwardca lobe it seems.

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Got some live rosin ready to go to make the outcomes enjoyable either way. Warm smoke hoping for cold smoke. Lolol

Mr. Penjamin reporting for duty. Early thoughts on 18z GFS is s/w energy being held back a bit more, northern energy a bit "norther." 

[stormtracker]

And away we go...at 78. vort is a bit further southwest than 12z.  Still has a decent nrn vort signature so far

[stormtracker]

vort seems to be coming out in one piece...still strong northern stream vort dropping down.  IMO, it actually looks a tad better than 12z?

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And away we go...at 78. vort is a bit further southwest than 12z.  Still has a decent nrn vort signature so far

Can already say it does more with the northern vort sig vs the Euro in comparison. 

[Benjamn3]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Mr. Penjamin reporting for duty. Early thoughts on 18z GFS is s/w energy being held back a bit more, northern energy a bit "norther." 

Pen Griffey JR is at the plate. From what I’m reading I think the same. We shall see, I leave the analysis to more educated minds than my own. lol 

[stormtracker]

Here's what I can say for certain....this won't be EUro like

[Solution Man]

Much better than 12z

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Here's what I can say for certain....this won't be EUro like

I like what I see so far... I'll defer to you in case it delivers so you can build up the tension. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

21 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I don't need a HECS, nor am I looking for one. Just give me snow on snow...and let me be among the higher totals.

Agree...though of course if a HECS happens I'll absolutely take it!  Right now, I have to like the position we're in for at least a decent event this upcoming weekend.

[stormtracker]

Snow approaching from the SW at 0z.   Again, I'm conservative this far out and I'm not calling shit until I'm sure.   I see the SFC map, but I go off of H5...still waiting

[stormtracker]

Phase is just a tad "sloppier" than 12z, but it appears to be getting the job done...just can't tell to what extent yet