DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Kicker on the Icon will be a thorn in future runs I bet. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010618&fh=114&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Eh its on and off with that feature, definitely a lot better than 12z overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Everyone gearing up for Happy Hour runs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 BTW Euro AI was swing a miss on the 12z run but not by much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If the Icon took a decent step at 18z, maybe others will follow and Gfs hold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: BTW Euro AI was swing a miss on the 12z run but not by much. Heisey loves it, and Heisey knows his stuff, but I hate everything associated the the Euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Heisey loves it, and Heisey knows his stuff, but I hate everything associated the the Euro. Lol I think it did well for the last event... don't think it can handle mesoscale details well but it never moved the heavy stuff far north and never lost sight of the event happening once it was relatively "locked" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: None of the models were perfect and they never will be. The vaunted Euro had me at 6" on last night's 0z run and I got 3". So a forecast from 3 days vs 12 hrs with same degree of error is better. Plus, Nam did better in other areas, so you can't judge it from yby. Yeah that's true...I'm just a little road salty today don't mind me, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If the Icon took a decent step at 19z, maybe others will follow and Gfs hold. Exactly. While the GFS has shown its bipolarity, it seems the other models have been taking their meds and are gently swinging in a good direction. I don't need a HECS, nor am I looking for one. Just give me snow on snow...and let me be among the higher totals. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z icon 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Got some live rosin ready to go to make the outcomes enjoyable either way. Warm smoke hoping for cold smoke. Lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At 60hrs Gfs holding back that energy vs 12z. Ocean vort off Atlantic is pishing westwardca lobe it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Got some live rosin ready to go to make the outcomes enjoyable either way. Warm smoke hoping for cold smoke. Lolol Mr. Penjamin reporting for duty. Early thoughts on 18z GFS is s/w energy being held back a bit more, northern energy a bit "norther." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 And away we go...at 78. vort is a bit further southwest than 12z. Still has a decent nrn vort signature so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 vort seems to be coming out in one piece...still strong northern stream vort dropping down. IMO, it actually looks a tad better than 12z? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And away we go...at 78. vort is a bit further southwest than 12z. Still has a decent nrn vort signature so far Can already say it does more with the northern vort sig vs the Euro in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Mr. Penjamin reporting for duty. Early thoughts on 18z GFS is s/w energy being held back a bit more, northern energy a bit "norther." Pen Griffey JR is at the plate. From what I’m reading I think the same. We shall see, I leave the analysis to more educated minds than my own. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Here's what I can say for certain....this won't be EUro like 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Much better than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, stormtracker said: Here's what I can say for certain....this won't be EUro like I like what I see so far... I'll defer to you in case it delivers so you can build up the tension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 21 minutes ago, mattie g said: I don't need a HECS, nor am I looking for one. Just give me snow on snow...and let me be among the higher totals. Agree...though of course if a HECS happens I'll absolutely take it! Right now, I have to like the position we're in for at least a decent event this upcoming weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snow approaching from the SW at 0z. Again, I'm conservative this far out and I'm not calling shit until I'm sure. I see the SFC map, but I go off of H5...still waiting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Phase is just a tad "sloppier" than 12z, but it appears to be getting the job done...just can't tell to what extent yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snow approaching from the SW at 0z. Again, I'm conservative this far out and I'm not calling shit until I'm sure. I see the SFC map, but I go off of H5...still waitingWhat’s scary is the storm is pretty much make or break at 72 hours. We will find out soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Awaiting "FOLKS" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Need a few more panels.... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Bruh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So here's the deal...it looks like its gonna be closer...but flirting with danger with thermals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Ji said: What’s scary is the storm is pretty much make or break at 72 hours. We will find out soon. You'd think we'll know by what...Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, stormtracker said: So here's the deal...it looks like its gonna be closer...but flirting with danger with thermals So kinda like the first boom run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Thermals cool down,.heavy snow at 18z Sat 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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