January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS for the period

Looks like the CMC wrt to orientation of the max stripe.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS is like the op, too progressive for a hit.  

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

That's actually pretty damn good. My guess is that there are nukes and whiffs that cancel each other out.

just got back to a laptop from the beach - but yeah, pretty much. difference between the median and the top 10% illustrate that pretty well. Also illustrates the GFS parent is pretty much the snowiest of all it's members.

[WhiteoutMD]

Can we say the EURO has a tendency to bury the energy in the south west? 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Can we say the EURO has a tendency to bury the energy in the south west? 

It's not really the southern stream thats the issue vs the other models. It's more the sloppiness from the N/S and the energy breaking off eastward. 

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

just got back to a laptop from the beach - but yeah, pretty much. difference between the median and the top 10% illustrate that pretty well. Also illustrates the GFS parent is pretty much the snowiest of all it's members.

Ok what's the difference between 50th and 90th percentiles??

[brooklynwx99]

here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Ok what's the difference between 50th and 90th percentiles??

 

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days

I do like the fact that the GEPS shifted towards the GEFS by a larger degree, making Euro the standout between the big three. Gives some potential credence to the GFS progression over the last 24 hours. That northern stream shortwave digging and phasing at different points/strengths really is the only crazy difference I see between the solutions. Can't say the Euro baja energy bias is really at play here when they all generally agree on placement of the phasing. 

 

[Paleocene]

EPS low pressures

 

GEFS

 

[Heisy]

I do like the fact that the GEPS shifted towards the GEFS by a larger degree, making Euro the standout between the big three. Gives some potential credence to the GFS progression over the last 24 hours. That northern stream shortwave digging and phasing at different points/strengths really is the only crazy difference I see between the solutions. Can't say the Euro baja energy bias is really at play here when they all generally agree on placement of the phasing. 

 

Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong


.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong


.

Sad, but true. Even when it caves at 18z, it'll probably come back at 0z. The individual EPS members aren't all that far off with SLP positioning either, but without a cleaner phase of the northern piece, it has a much lesser mechanism to climb the coast and stays too pos tilted.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Me after looking at the Euro:

 

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yep, great post, this event relies on the piece you circled. Have we been surprised before? Of course, but more times than not the GFS caves to other guidance. It feels annual that we get a fantasy event where the GFS does this. It’ll probably cave at 18z. I really, really hope I’m wrong

Ukie was a little closer today at 12z than at 00z last night, and while the Euro wasn't that great I thought it was also somewhat closer. We know there's a load of potential and there's reason to have a little optimism. We just need to see the Europeans move towards the North American crew by 12z tomorrow and we can feel even better.

That all said, I think we should be confident in our chances of seeing some accumulating snow this weekend!

[pazzo83]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Me after looking at the Euro:

 

legit lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Of course there's a chance. Just like every winter there's a chance we get nothing. 

[Paleocene]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Yep. Go enjoy it while you can! That would suck and is unlikely...but never say never around here.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have.

To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know)

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Of course there's a chance. Just like every winter there's a chance we get nothing. 

I love how we basically Ninja'd each other, lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have.

To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know)

I mean it is looking like we could go into the “warm wet cold dry” MO we’ve been in for the post 2016 winters.

[blizzardmeiser]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do your thoughts automatically go to the most depressing thing? My goodness lady...there's always a chance of anything in weather. But it's just better not to go there enjoy what we have.

To my amateur eyes...and going off of what the knowledgeable posters have said, there look to be more opportunities this year (already tracking one this weekend...still way WAY up in the air, but ya know)

Enjoy this one and focus on the next.  its a long winter.

[rjvanals]

Looking at the Friday night model runs of the 3 major globals the Canadian did best, with the GFS being to far north w the best snow and the Euro doing ok in northern VA but was to snowy down towards Richmond 

[IronTy]

28 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Wayne Dyer says no way, we got more coming.  

[Paleocene]

Anyone else extrapolating the NAM

[rjvanals]

Euro Weeklies look decent imo through the end of the month and we warm up but don't torch into February 

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Well if this is one and done I stop at 4.68” for the year lol

[weathercoins]

32 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Always a chance, but no big warm up coming over the next couple of weeks, so statistically should be at least another  chance or two while it’s cold at least 

[stormtracker]

41 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Anyone else extrapolating the NAM

Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run.  I dunno

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run.  I dunno

I will take a warning level event. I could maybe handle it not being a 12-18 inch storm like 12z GFS showed