Chris78 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Waiting for Folks 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Waiting for Folks Sing that Folksong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Actually kinda matches the GFS with the southern vort. Northern vort isn't as diggy and as far south tho at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah, its not gonna phase like the GFS..northern vort too far north and out of whack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Both models were looking similar until they diverged at hour 72. Euro doesn't like the nrn stream vort like the GFS does. Weirdly enough the Euro is trying to recover. So let's see how this goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, stormtracker said: Both models were looking similar until they diverged at hour 72. Euro doesn't like the nrn stream vort like the GFS does. Weirdly enough the Euro is trying to recover. So let's see how this goes Historically, the GFS actually has a good track record with the northern stream doesn't it? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, its not gonna phase like the GFS..northern vort too far north and out of whack We'll run with the weenie hope that Gfs handles N stream better than Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It's doing the weird "tail" thing...positively titled trof. Nothing like the GFS at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, its not gonna phase like the GFS..northern vort too far north and out of whack Shame the better guidance is not aligning the NS and STJ. The next NS wave is actually much better but there is no southern wave for it to work with, the STJ wave before took all that energy off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's really not that far from something more like the GFS honestly. I'd say it's "better" overall with the pieces vs last run but we need more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Snowing Saturday on euro. Looks light but I’m taking gfs all the way lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, DDweatherman said: It's really not that far from something more like the GFS honestly. I'd say it's "better" overall with the pieces vs last run but we need more. Still 5 days out.. alot of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gfs and Euro were apart leading up to this event I think they will find a middle ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro at 0z looks exactly like the 12z gfs tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro is not far from a phase. We have time to reel this one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At least the GFS, Euro, and Canadian all give us some snow on Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gfs is the only model that has a piece of NS energy breaking off over Nebraska. The other models seem to keep it moving eastward across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS for the period Those philly totals are likely skewed high from a couple of those BECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GEPS looks good allegedly? GEFS like 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just the idea of snow for Saturday is where we want to be. Sure, I'd take the 40" in Annapolis that the GFS had but a split of their ideas is the best bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEPS looks good allegedly? GEFS like it prefers a SE/beaches option but it’s better 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS for the period Looks like the CMC wrt to orientation of the max stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 EPS is like the op, too progressive for a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, mattie g said: That's actually pretty damn good. My guess is that there are nukes and whiffs that cancel each other out. just got back to a laptop from the beach - but yeah, pretty much. difference between the median and the top 10% illustrate that pretty well. Also illustrates the GFS parent is pretty much the snowiest of all it's members. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Can we say the EURO has a tendency to bury the energy in the south west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Can we say the EURO has a tendency to bury the energy in the south west? It's not really the southern stream thats the issue vs the other models. It's more the sloppiness from the N/S and the energy breaking off eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: just got back to a laptop from the beach - but yeah, pretty much. difference between the median and the top 10% illustrate that pretty well. Also illustrates the GFS parent is pretty much the snowiest of all it's members. Ok what's the difference between 50th and 90th percentiles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok what's the difference between 50th and 90th percentiles?? 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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