January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[winter_warlock]

Looking like next 4 weeks below normal!!!

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I posted the sounding earlier… I think it’s really all sleet despite what this says, but who am I to question WxBell. It also dumps almost all of this in 3 hours. Don’t think it would accrete as much as help glaciate anything. 

Oh wow, I was expecting maybe a tenth of an inch or something. Even if just half (or frankly a quarter) of that was legit freezing rain that could accrete it definitely could help in giving me an extra long winter break. 

[SnowenOutThere]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1874606351701475799?t=Si4ZRrKNNJ68cDEWkY2Row&s=19

Post over at twitter seemed informative in the two ways this might go a little too far north for our liking @OSUmetstud mentioned he believed that the second way outlined in the post seems more likely than the first FWIW and in the second outcome it would most likely just help the coastal get going so we wouldn't necessarily lose out on snow from it. 

[AllWeather]

You should have a redder tag.

He’s also the recent proud owner of a champion fantasy football team. What can’t Pete do!?


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[Ruin]

one of my local mets are still saying we are on track to have a mild winter on track to what they forecasted in the fall. cant make this stuff up lol.

[katabatic]

Another Watch up for Garrett County. Hope this one does better than today (which has been rather pitiful). @jonjon how have you guys fared?

[Wxdavis5784]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

one of my local mets are still saying we are on track to have a mild winter on track to what they forecasted in the fall. cant make this stuff up lol.

Fox43 by chance? 

[Ruin]

Just now, Wxdavis5784 said:

Fox43 by chance? 

no it was abc 27 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

one of my local mets are still saying we are on track to have a mild winter on track to what they forecasted in the fall. cant make this stuff up lol.

Last couple of days were warm before the hammer drops. They're hoping people just gaze into the TV with a blank stare thinking "yeah, he's right...it's been warm", completely forgetting the other 27 or 28 days of the month. Sadly, there will be people who do just that.

[jonjon]

3 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Another Watch up for Garrett County. Hope this one does better than today (which has been rather pitiful). @jonjon how have you guys fared?

A few inches so far and snowing better as of lately.  I think we'll end up around 6-8" by tomorrow morning, which is around what was forecasted.

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last couple of days were warm before the hammer drops. They're hoping people just gaze into the TV with a blank stare thinking "yeah, he's right...it's been warm", completely forgetting the other 27 or 28 days of the month. Sadly, there will be people who do just that.

lol very very true 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, jonjon said:

A few inches so far and snowing better as of lately.  I think we'll end up around 6-8" by tomorrow morning, which is around what was forecasted.

You are gonna get shellacked next week.  Silly amount of snow. 

[jonjon]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You are gonna get shellacked next week.  Silly amount of snow. 

We could use it!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC ensembles look good for our area. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

This could easily shift south. 

To be fair, I’ve been model watching for over 15 years, and I can’t think of one system that trended significantly south less than five days out. West, east, and certainly north… but never south. This may be my own confirmation bias so if anyone can name a winter storm that did, let me know.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

To be fair, I’ve been model watching for over 15 years, and I can’t think of one system that trended significantly south less than five days out. West, east, and certainly north… but never south. This may be my own confirmation bias so if anyone can name a winter storm that did, let me know.

The two Jan storms last year shifted south within 2 days, but that situation is a little different. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro AI has a bomb in the 10 day range from its 12z run.  Close to a big miller A for us. Not sure if this was discussed already. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

The two Jan storms last year shifted south within 2 days, but that situation is a little different. 

I still got next to nothing from both of those despite any trends south, but maybe somewhere north of here busted positive? Idk

[frd]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro AI has a bomb in the 10 day range from its 12z run.  Close to a big miller A for us. Not sure if this was discussed already. 

This a crazy pattern, I believe that low you mentioned went Cyclone Bombing, dropping  51 mb in 24 hours.  Just offshore.  Plenty of time for change. 

Seems to be two threats in the long range near the 11 th and the 15/16 th.  

 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

We all knew a north shift was coming. It happens every single time. Like I said. Nothing worse than being in the bullseye 6 days out. It is going to snow. We just dont know how much yet. The chances of a shut out are zero imo. 

[frd]

 

 

North trend may not be done according to Webb

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

Color me shocked that this weekend’s storm on the East Coast is trending north on the models… not. Even with suppression/confluence in the mid levels, when your storm is largely being forced by mid-level warm advection & also has no cold high or legit snow pack to the north to squash the baroclinic zone, you’re asking for a last minute northward trend (& these trends probably aren’t done once we get the synoptics settled down). Seen this kind of movie too many times.

 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I still got next to nothing from both of those despite any trends south, but maybe somewhere north of here busted positive? Idk

Between i-66/rt 50 and i-70 were progged to see not more than an inch or so averaged across all models, and we ended up with 3-6” both storms

[bncho]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

 

North trend may not be done according to Webb

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

Color me shocked that this weekend’s storm on the East Coast is trending north on the models… not. Even with suppression/confluence in the mid levels, when your storm is largely being forced by mid-level warm advection & also has no cold high or legit snow pack to the north to squash the baroclinic zone, you’re asking for a last minute northward trend (& these trends probably aren’t done once we get the synoptics settled down). Seen this kind of movie too many times.

 

It's too north now. I don't want another trend north. Nobody except Philly is happy.

[Terpeast]

For now Euro is on its own with the north shift, and it’s just one run. Need to see what 0z models say, and need to see if they start following the euro on the north shift. It may be onto something, or it may be a blip. Many are taking this seriously because Euro is the best performing model. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

North trend may not be done according to Webb

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

Color me shocked that this weekend’s storm on the East Coast is trending north on the models… not. Even with suppression/confluence in the mid levels, when your storm is largely being forced by mid-level warm advection & also has no cold high or legit snow pack to the north to squash the baroclinic zone, you’re asking for a last minute northward trend (& these trends probably aren’t done once we get the synoptics settled down). Seen this kind of movie too many times.

 

I don't follow him but read what's posted here, and he seems to glomm on to the most recent model trends and acts like he knew it was coming all along. I find that hard to believe of him personally. 

[frd]

Just now, Terpeast said:

For now Euro is on its own with the north shift, and it’s just one run. Need to see what 0z models say, and need to see if they start following the euro on the north shift. It may be onto something, or it may be a blip. Many are taking this seriously because Euro is the best performing model. 

Any thoughts on the day 10 threat ?

The Euro showed a cyclone bomb off the East Coast.  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

For now Euro is on its own with the north shift, and it’s just one run. Need to see what 0z models say, and need to see if they start following the euro on the north shift. It may be onto something, or it may be a blip. Many are taking this seriously because Euro is the best performing model. 

EPS kinda trended that way as well, though. Heightened snow totals overall but the bullseye is Baltimore now.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't follow him but read what's posted here, and he seems to glomm on to the most recent model trends and acts like he knew it was coming all along. I find that hard to believe of him personally. 

I believe his home base was North Carolina so his starting reference is there. Thought he was in New Mexico last year not sure now

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh wow, I was expecting maybe a tenth of an inch or something. Even if just half (or frankly a quarter) of that was legit freezing rain that could accrete it definitely could help in giving me an extra long winter break. 

Now will get the sleet and freezing rain CAB display.  I won’t post for three days if the Monday event is mostly non snow. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Any thoughts on the day 10 threat ?

The Euro showed a cyclone bomb off the East Coast.  

Haven’t been paying attention to that yet. Need to resolve the two waves before that first, then we’ll have a better sense of what the day 10 threat might look like