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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Well, it was in the actual forecast as a chance of snow yesterday, however, today it is gone.  Zone 19709

 

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 34.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 35.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Are those actually human-generated?

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MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type

stormtracker
stormtracker

FOLKS....

wxmvpete
wxmvpete

A little bit of a break down from the 12Z and 18Z guidance. The main discrepancy remains the strength/tilt of the 500mb trough, although the ridging along the West Coast feature differences too. Using

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Im not sure, other than phasing earlier and a less positively tilted trof, what mechanism is in place to bring this N. This setup is another that favors DelMarVa and points S. So some of you folks will find yourselves in a good spot again. Has some potential down that way. However, I do not see Chuck's warm forecast for Jan 11 and rain playing out. Most times I agree with him even tho I dislike non-cold and non-snow, but this time he's off :oldman:

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event. 

Did you scroll up? GFS showed 12+” last night lol
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EstorilM

EstorilM

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jayyy said:


Did you scroll up? GFS showed 12+” last night lol

:wub:  Oops.

Nah I kinda figured most would be distracted by the current system lol.  Plus I read this page and everyone seemed very "blah" - watched a YT guy go through some of the models (must have been a different suite) and it looked like a SW to NE line that was way more coastal and missed the big areas in/around DC.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event. 

There have been several runs of a few models that have shown hints of a monster storm. But of course - it's far out and the shortwaves responsible aren't even in clear view yet. 

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JenkinsJinkies

JenkinsJinkies

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Kinda bizarre to hear the usually-conservative WTOP and other mets actually mentioning this storm so "far out" when nothing impressive has really been shown on the models yet. Even more bizarre that no one in here is posting maps, AND there isn't a thread for the potential event. 

Wait for the current system to end first. Plus it’s still too far out, wait until Wednesday at the earliest.

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Alfoman

Alfoman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Amped said:

The lead  500mb wave seems to be killing our chances on overnight runs. It helps keep the troff positively tilted too long, so the coastal bombs well offshore.

The initial phase and transfer of energy on Friday (Hour 96-ish) is what determines our fate here - especially with that lead wave.

Difference between the GFS bomb runs and 0z/6z is a stronger lead SW, allowing the baja energy to stay further back southwest for longer before completing the phase with the northern stream. This results in too positive of a tilt and would likely yield a low well off-shore by the time it reaches us. Yesterday's good run had that NS shortwave leading the phase process and ending up more neutral before it hits the EC. Such a delicate dance of energies involved here...this is going to be tough to bring home. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

The initial phase and transfer of energy on Friday (Hour 96-ish) is what determines our fate here - especially with that lead wave.

Difference between the GFS bomb runs and 0z/6z is a stronger lead SW, allowing the baja energy to stay further back southwest for longer before completing the phase with the northern stream. This results in too positive of a tilt and would likely yield a low well off-shore by the time it reaches us. Yesterday's good run had that NS shortwave leading the phase process and ending up more neutral before it hits the EC. Such a delicate dance of energies involved here...this is going to be tough to bring home. 

5H at 60 hours on the GFS looks very similar to 18z yesterday (in terms of that shortwave in the Southwest). Just sayin' without sayin' anything.

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EstorilM

EstorilM

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wait for the current system to end first. Plus it’s still too far out, wait until Wednesday at the earliest.

Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. 

Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread.  I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

Haha I remember the old days on the Accu forums (probably joined there 15+yr ago) where a storm like this (to be fair, I think everyone reacted the same way on these forums) would be a HOT thread. Heck probably even 300+ hours out. 

Saturday precip onset would only be like ~144hr out, that's easily mid-range IMO, definitely worth a thread.  I mean yeah, wait for the downstream stuff to clear out and things to settle, next piece of energy to come onshore, etc etc. but still.

This subforum has a nasty relationship with threads. NYC will start them 3 weeks in advance for a storm that misses them. Here 3 days out is about right lol 

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Alfoman

Alfoman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's markedly better so far.   I need to see a few more panels.   Not going to try to predict what it's gonna do, but it's going to be a better run in terms of a storm...not saying it's gonna be a hit

100% - honestly pretty similar evolution so far compared to 18Z yesterday (not identical). Could confidently say it's a less messy solution so far though day h5...

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