January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Pretty sure you also said today’s storm wouldn’t pan out at first either. Let’s go day by day shall we

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

[Heisy]

Euro keeps doing it's thing where it has the southwest vort dig SW for oil.   No-phase lookin ass

It’s the N branch that trended worse this run. Compare 96 to 18z 102 and look at the northern shortwave. That is the shortwave that drops in on GFS and late on the cmc run. Can be corrected next run hopefully


.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Heisy said:

It’s the N branch that trended worse this run. Compare 96 to 18z 102 and look at the northern shortwave. That is the shortwave that drops in on GFS and late on the cmc run. Can be corrected next run hopefully


.

Yeah, not worried at all at this point

[Kmlwx]

Yeah the NS is pretty clearly different on the more favorable runs versus the bad runs. Not sweating it at all while we have glorious snow falling outside. We'll make sense of next weekend as we bask in our snow out the window tomorrow/Wed and beyond. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing.  Probably all the way up to like Wed and--

Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us?  We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing?   We're just a weird bunch of people.

Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!!

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bro I've been trying to steady my brain on this very thing--there's about to be snow outside of my dang window and I'm up here thinking about a dang model run for 6 days from now...stay in the moment, dang it!!!

Everyone got burned too many times over the past 9 years.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Everyone got burned too many times over the past 9 years.

And now that we're getting snow we don't know how to act, lol

[yoda]

EPS looks a bit better than the OP

[stormtracker]

UKMET blows too

[jayyy]

You know the ole weenie adage… let’s get this current storm out of the way first and see how things react downstream afterward. Long way to go!

[jayyy]

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

… the pattern looks fine. Doesn’t mean we’ll score necessarily, but the h5 setup is certainly good enough if a few things line up for us.

We’ll know a lot more by Wednesday. Let’s enjoy the current storm and move on from there.

[seether]

No maps posted?

[Buddy1987]

Euro wil come around. Its doing its usual bury energy into the southwest and get stuck. Rule #188 out of the weenie handbook. 

[stormtracker]

So, NAM looks better with the Nrn vort vs Euro.   NAM looks more like the GFS with the northern vort and southwest vort.

[stormtracker]

Shit model, but ICON looked like it was about to go.  

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I think all of the models are going to have various issues and solutions with the timing.  Probably all the way up to like Wed and--

Wait a minute, what the fuck is wrong with us?  We're about to get snow that could approach double digits and we're really looking at the next thing?   We're just a weird bunch of people.

You're about to get snow that WILL attain double digits, and you are really looking at the next thing. We are a bunch of really highly enthusiastic dedicated people that happen to like the snow.

[stormtracker]

So far, GFS is almost the same.  Southwestern Vort is a tad more west

[stormtracker]

GFS more consolidated with the southwest vort and it's coming out

[stormtracker]

Trof is more broad, positively tilted...prob won't be as good as 0z

[stormtracker]

Yeah, sucks.  Weird evolution.  On to 12z

[Ji]

Yeah, sucks.  Weird evolution.  On to 12z

6z ensembles look way better than 0z

[Kmlwx]

As a ton of our setups are - it's super delicate. But that GEFS is encouraging to see, at least. 

[aldie 22]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually I was all over todays storm, from when models were showing a cutter and rain. I said "It's not going to cut with such a strong -NAO and favorable Pacific pattern". I also noted that the 50/50 low was perfect for this storm.. was one of the first to call it with Ji lol

One of the odd things about you is i know you love snow but you have a severe i saw it first warm bias. Just my two cents...carry on

[Stormchaserchuck1]

49 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

One of the odd things about you is i know you love snow but you have a severe i saw it first warm bias. Just my two cents...carry on

Not really.. I've only been bullish about this storm we are having now out of all the storms in the last 5 years, and this is the only one that's verifying. Before this, 5.5" on Nov 15th 2018 was the record. The thing is we haven't had good setups.. this storm had a good setup. That's why I correctly predicted it from 7 days out. A bias means you are favoring one side over the other in verification, but that hasn't happened with me.. Sometimes it's just an easy call: I think this one in 5-6 days is an easy call. When it doesn't snow much with that storm, it won't mean that there is a warm bias. I would love a constant wintery pattern.. it's not happening yet. If there is another setup like this one today with -NAO and a favorable Pacific pattern, I will probably predict snow well in advance. Forecasting results over the last 5 years have not indicated a warm bias, we've just had mostly unfavorable patterns over that time. 

Here, 8 days ago: 

and

Quote

Models are trying to handle the continuously building -NAO.. they may be a little too dry right now, just doing what the index typically favors from the medium range. I love that 50/50 low. 

This one has a perfect 50/50 low. Historical maps of our best snowfalls have the 50/50 low area almost as low of an anomaly as the actual storm (meaning it is super important)! I'd definitely watch NE of DC.

I still like the Jan 6th storm. It has a ton of moisture in the Midwest, moving into a -NAO block and 50/50 low. Very unlikely it will split off in pieces like the GFS is showing

[CAPE]

[mattie g]

^

We've got time and this isn't a horrible place to be in with a potential bomb - much better than it running a little inland - but I'd like to see it start making some moves by noon tomorrow.

[clskinsfan]

Whats next after today's bust?

[frd]

 

 

Mount Holly removed the wording of snow chances for this Saturday.  

However, they did discuss the potential.  

 potentially active pattern will resume beginning Friday night
and especially on Saturday as another upper-trough and
associated surface low pressure system works its way toward the
area. As expected at this forecast range, there are major
discrepancies between each deterministic model, and from run to
run. For now, went with mostly NBM probabilities for
precipitation, though tempered them a little, and have chance
PoPs for snowfall Saturday into Saturday night.

From the overnight models, the GFS seems to have the most
impactful solution for our region while the CMC much less so
and a complete miss on the EC. Stay tuned for changes as the
week progresses.

 

[blizzardmeiser]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

Mount Holly removed the wording of snow chances for this Saturday.  

However, they did discuss the potential.  

 potentially active pattern will resume beginning Friday night
and especially on Saturday as another upper-trough and
associated surface low pressure system works its way toward the
area. As expected at this forecast range, there are major
discrepancies between each deterministic model, and from run to
run. For now, went with mostly NBM probabilities for
precipitation, though tempered them a little, and have chance
PoPs for snowfall Saturday into Saturday night.

From the overnight models, the GFS seems to have the most
impactful solution for our region while the CMC much less so
and a complete miss on the EC. Stay tuned for changes as the
week progresses.

 

saw that, were they more bullish before?

[frd]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

saw that, were they more bullish before?

 

Well, it was in the actual forecast as a chance of snow yesterday, however, today it is gone.  Zone 19709

 

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 34.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Saturday

Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.