January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

For real.. it's so easy to blame everything on an easy cause. Fact is, we've had 41/46 Winter +NAO months since 2013, and a 7-consecutive year record breaking streak of -PNA by 175% for Feb-Mar. And 5/6 Winters before this of +WPO The mechanics of the pattern have been bad for cold/snow. Nice to see this wintery pattern set up in late November and last through January.. 

Yea...that would have produced a string of shitty, albeit colder, winters in the 1800s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes.  This isn't in fantasy land anymore.  If this keeps up, none of us are sleeping between now and Friday

Neither will I, but for different emotions/state of mind.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@ravensrulelove you, too....MUUUUUUAH!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO's continue to run as a "new pattern" where a slight amplification of the SE ridge and storms runs underneath of it.. it's not like several decades ago when -NAO meant everything would be squashed or suppressed. 

The new -NAO:

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@ravensrulelove you, too....MUUUUUUAH!

I will always love you. You never forget your first love. I hope all is well with you. You’re a good man. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...that would have produced a string of shitty, albeit colder, winters in the 1800s.

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I will always love you. You never forget your first love. I hope all is well with you. You’re a good man. 

Hopefully we all get some snow, man. Enjoy.

[ravensrule]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we all get some snow, man. Enjoy.

Thank you, absolutely. 

[LeesburgWx]

DT just now:

“I POSTED  ABOUT  JAN 11-12  OVER ON THE BLUESKY .   it looks  MASSIVE....”

 It’s over

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

The only place it’s consistently hot, is my pants. Stay far away if you want any snow. 

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Neither will I, but for different emotions/state of mind.

Whatever it is, I hope it gets better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Whatever it is, I hope it gets better.

Just the shitty winter....everything else is great lol

Well, glad I was finally right about something and January has been wintry.

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Whatever it is, I hope it gets better.

He is having a kid with his wife IIRC

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

We have more precipitable water now.. the snow decreasion is probably about 5-10% but more variance between a no-snow Winter and a 40-45"+ Winter. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, yoda said:

He is having a kid with his wife IIRC

I guess it’s better than having it with your girlfriend when you’re married. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just the shitty winter....everything else is great lol

Oh hell, I thought it was something serious, you fucker

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, yoda said:

He is having a kid with his wife IIRC

Yea, life is good....I am just so mentally deranged that I am still tracking snow and allowing to affect me

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh hell, I thought it was something serious, you fucker

Snow is serious, what’s wrong with you. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, life is good....I am just so mentally deranged that I am still tracking snow and allowing to affect me

In other words you're just a banner member of this forum? 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh hell, I thought it was something serious, you fucker

I miss the conferences...even though my drinking days are over, would still attend!!

[ravensrule]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I miss the conferences...even though my drinking days are over. would still attend!!

Don’t worry, when that kid wakes you up at night you will start drinking. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I miss the conferences...even though my drinking days are over. would still attend!!

Good times back in the day.  I'd love to do another one someday

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I miss the conferences...even though my drinking days are over, would still attend!!

I miss the conferences too

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Don’t worry, when that kid wakes you up at night you will start drinking. 

Well, this is #4 and will have 11 years next month! ; )

Just now, stormtracker said:

Good times back in the day.  I'd love to do another one someday

I'll be waiting...maybe I can present on how the mid atl has stolen SNE snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

Turn of the decade.

[jayyy]

Dark sky showing 8-10 for Saturday. Guess I know which model it uses

[ravensrule]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this is #4 and will have 11 years next month! ; )

I'll be waiting...maybe I can present on how the mid atl has stolen SNE snow

Lol who knew. Congrats.