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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think everyone has acknowledged we’ve been going through a convergence of a shit pacific and high latitude cycle which also happened in the 50s and 70s.  The last 8 years would have been a snow minimum in any era. But we’ve used regression models and analysis to determine we’ve lost about 15-20% of our snow climo. And the results the last 8 years fall within that measure worse than comparable bad cycles. 
 

So I guess the issue is whether you think 15-20% is a big deal.  I do!  We’ve had several marginal events that would have made a total dreg under 5” winter into a more easy to stomach year that at least had a decent snow or two. No one is saying these would have been snowy years. 

The only place it’s consistently hot, is my pants. Stay far away if you want any snow. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

We have more precipitable water now.. the snow decreasion is probably about 5-10% but more variance between a no-snow Winter and a 40-45"+ Winter. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'll defer to you on that....I know up here, we haven't lost any...yet, but perhaps that is beginning because we can't buy a flake these days.

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually as of 2022 analysis showed eastern Mass had increase snow climo due to bigger coastal storms. But the further south you go the worse that equation gets. 

If -NAO's continue to be wetter like this, wait until we do a -NAO and +PDO decadal phase.. it looks like they could possibly align together in the coming time. But yeah, much more sensitive further south

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Don’t worry, when that kid wakes you up at night you will start drinking. 

Well, this is #4 and will have 11 years next month! ; )

Just now, stormtracker said:

Good times back in the day.  I'd love to do another one someday

I'll be waiting...maybe I can present on how the mid atl has stolen SNE snow

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