January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I am returning on the 14th. I have a dreaded feeling my heart will be broken.

I have a commitment I absolutely cannot miss, otherwise I’d do what North Arlington is doing.

I hardly even care about missing the upcoming 8-10” anymore.

I honestly don’t think we’ll get a huge storm in these parts this weekend. Snow? More than likely, but I can’t get on board with the GFS right now.

[mattie g]

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

After just telling my family I booked a backup flight for Friday I told them @mattie g’s story to try and help my case. They weren’t any more sympathetic 

Valiant effort.

[Jeff B]

I am returning on the 14th. I have a dreaded feeling my heart will be broken.
I have a commitment I absolutely cannot miss, otherwise I’d do what North Arlington is doing.
I hardly even care about missing the upcoming 8-10” anymore.

Leaving now for Sarasota for the week, returning Sunday afternoon. Right there with ya, Fozz.

[Heisy]

Great signal at this range, this model has been good





.

[Jeff B]

Ravens game is Saturday at 8pm
(Amazon Prime)

[Quasievil]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Great signal at this range, this model has been good





.

All we can hope for at this range. Main model shows something fun, ensembles support something. Going to be another fun week!

[WxWatcher007]

Well, I knew this thread wouldn’t disappoint  

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Jeff B said:

Ravens game is Saturday at 8pm
(Amazon Prime)

Let’s F’ng go. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I still don't like the 500mb look over the Pacific for this storm, on the ensembles. In DC/Balt's greatest snowstorms, you have a strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska or PNA region. Models are showing a ridge there. And there is a weak +WPO over the Bering Strait. That pattern could pop a slight SE ridge or flatten the pattern out a little bit, which isn't being shown now, and I think there will be mixing issues, if not possibly rain. The 500mb doesn't match DC/Baltimore snowstorm composite in the Pacific Ocean for the time of this storm. 

[osfan24]

Let’s goooooo. Saw there were over 200 new posts in here and knew something huge must have happened. Need to reel in a HECS!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I still don't like the 500mb look over the Pacific for this storm, on the ensembles. In DC/Balt's greatest snowstorms, you have a strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska or PNA region. Models are showing a ridge there. And there is a weak +WPO over the Bering Strait. That pattern could pop a slight SE ridge or flatten the pattern out a little bit, which isn't being shown now, and I think there will be mixing issues, if not possibly rain. The 500mb doesn't match DC/Baltimore snowstorm composite in the Pacific Ocean for the time of this storm. 

A little SE ridge will force it up the coast instead of off the se coast.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

A little SE ridge will force it up the coast instead of off the se coast.

Yeah, it may run up the coast. I just think there could be mixing issues in I-95, if not rain. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, it may run up the coast. I just think there could be mixing issues in I-95. 

Every biggie needs to flirt with the mix line. Stop being a grinch, let’s reel this in together. 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, it may run up the coast. I just think there could be mixing issues in I-95, if not rain. 

Look at him go...

[SnowHabit]

Capital Weather Gang on Facebook:

“Snow potential index — 10/10 (→): Monday’s snow is a lock. The wild card is what next weekend could bring.”


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[yoda]

reposting in here (thanks @RIC Airport)

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z Euro AI looked cold and juicy for the weekend storm.

 

 

[Scraff]

Imagine if the 0z GFS holds the previous BECS and the Euro follows suit. This place will be an absolute madhouse. Not that it isn’t already. 

[stormtracker]

Of course I miss the only time where I could have typed folks.   Oh well....Come on GFS/Euro combo.   If this shit keeps up on 0z tomorrow runs, this places is gonna lose it and become 110% more unbearable.

Let the good times roll!

[stormtracker]

Its a shit model, but the ICON looked interesting at the end of its run

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Its a shit model, but the ICON looked interesting at the end of its run

Too much of a positive tilt with a kicker racing into the flow.

[stormtracker]

Aiight..so out west.  S/w down southwest is a bit further East...thats all for now

[peribonca]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Aiight..so out west.  S/w down southwest is a bit further East...thats all for now

This is starting to look good at 72h

[stormtracker]

So far, H5 is different....southwest vort seems more out of psych/less consolidated that 18z so far.  But there's a stronger nrn vort diving down

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

This is starting to look good at 72h

Just wish that sw vort was fully phased in like 18z...but gulf low starting to form at 15z Friday

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS is interestng

[stormtracker]

yeah, leaving behind that sw vort hurts a bit.  low in the gulf not as wet or consolidated so far.  Still, not a terrible look at H5 rn

[stormtracker]

So, from what I'm seeing, there's still going to be a storm..the questions now are strength and will it get its act together in time.

[stormtracker]

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So, from what I'm seeing, there's still going to be a storm..the questions now are strength and will it get its act together in time.

That's a vigorous ns sw

[stormtracker]

snow starts ats 7am Saturday...again..hard to tell if it's gonna be a HECS or run of the mill thang