January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok, GFS has the southwest vort more involved/easter.   let's see what this thing is gonna do

Come on man, I need a folks! 

[stormtracker]

Looked good early on, but kinda got out of synch with the southern vort....But, it's still trying to get something going down in the gulf

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Come on man, I need a folks! 

I wanna say it so bad.   But most folks just look at the SFC maps and see moisture gathering and moving and think that's it!  Not me.  I look at the H5 maps...that tells the story for. me.  If that looks classic, then I'll yell it every time.   But dropping that word requires a ton of confidence and I just don't have it...yet

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I wanna say it so bad.   But most folks just look at the SFC maps and see moisture gathering and moving and think that's it!  Not me.  I look at the H5 maps...that tells the story for. me.  If that looks classic, then I'll yell it every time.   But dropping that word requires a ton of confidence and I just don't have it...yet

Ya looks less good than 6Z but we will see 

[TSSN+]

It ain’t 6z but something is there

 

[stormtracker]

Moisture is coming up from the S and W toward us...but nothing super heavy...it's trying to get going, but it just doesn't have that H5 look or support.   Has a coastal low...we're just too far N and W

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya looks less good than 6Z but we will see 

 Still 6 days out    gonna go thru alot of back and forth with models... just look at the storm for tonight and Monday lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It ain’t 6z but something is there

 

It's a 2-4 inch deal up this way

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's a 2-4 inch deal up this way

Snow on snow, I’ll take whatever. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms.

I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo. 

 

Love it when you talk dirty, Mr Chill. 

[snowfan]

With two visits to Canaan in the coming weeks, I’m really hoping this holds. Would be nice to get a mostly full month of winter for a change. 
 

[stormtracker]

Euro has that out of sych tail in the southwest again.  If we got that thing to come out in one piece....oh man.  But as is,  It's so inelegant.   And sadly doesn't give us what we want.   there's some really light stuff that might gt to us, but nothing like our hopes and dreams.    Saving grace is we got time. and 234 more runs to go..

[frd]

Full phase unlikely says Homenuk for next weekend, but might be some sort of impact in the East.  

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1875955036804825209

 

 

 

 

[TSSN+]

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro has that out of sych tail in the southwest again.  If we got that thing to come out in one piece....oh man.  But as is,  It's so inelegant.   And sadly doesn't give us what we want.   there's some really light stuff that might gt to us, but nothing like our hopes and dreams.    Saving grace is we got time. and 234 more runs to go..

That run is loaded with potential. Multiple shots and the end the if the run looks a monster is developing 

[mitchnick]

Icon is doing it's best at this point to improve 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010518&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Heisy]

Icon is doing it's best at this point to improve 
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025010518&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That was a phase, you can see N shortwave diving in.


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[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That was a phase, you can see N shortwave diving in.


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I agree. People are thinking there's not enough time for things to change. But there's nothing to change! They're just computer simulations that need to change notvthe atmosphere. 

[Heisy]

Early on the GFS has a stronger vort going above the ridge


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[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Heisy said:

Early on the GFS has a stronger vort going above the ridge


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 Bring it home!

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

How about next Friday since this thread is for that threat

I’d love a weekend storm. Kids will have an extended break tomorrow and probably Tuesday, but I’m remote so I’ll have to work. Would love to have a full day to get out in the goods!

[mitchnick]

Heisey N vory way south from 12z position ready to drop in at 99 imho. Gunna be close

[Heisy]

Heisey N vory way south from 12z position ready to drop in at 99 imho. Gunna be close

Yep, looks very 6z GFS esque, common…


.

[WEATHER53]

It’s only  just begun. We do well thru first week of February 

[mitchnick]

111hrs

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Heisey N vory way south from 12z position ready to drop in at 99 imho. Gunna be close

Anything is better than what the gefs individual members had at 12z

[Ralph Wiggum]

 Not nearly as positively tilted at 12z op

[mitchnick]

It's a hit but for how much.

[nj2va]

Almost neutral tilt as it approaches the MS River at H135.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, nj2va said:

Almost neutral tilt as it approaches the MS River at H135.

Keep going....

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 Not nearly as positively tilted at 12z op

Closed, consolidated vort over Oklahoma/Kansas v. Some strung out POS at 22z.