January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

I get 17", not road tripping for 24", if I was getting 2 or 3 definitely.  You're welcome to come up here though, its only a little over an hour.  I stopped in the sheets in Leesburg on my way back from IAD this evening. 

On battlefield parkway! 2 miles from my house!

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS looks great for this weekend!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS looks great for this weekend!!!

Was just about to post that EPS looks like a clean miller A. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z gefs looks fantastic for this too. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Was just about to post that EPS looks like a clean miller A. 

Too warm East of the Fall line 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Too warm East of the Fall line 

Really? Was just going by the ensemble member low positions.  Looks like a big cluster in spots that usually work for us. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS looks cold for Saturday.

[Weather Will]

I know NWS is concentrating on tonight's storm, but this is quite bullish more than 5 days out:

Friday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

If we get 5 and Philly NYC get 20....I'd rather it not happen at all

My euro ensembles snow chart blew up tonight lol for next weekend
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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The signal on the EPS is about as strong as you get for a possible snowstorm at that range...even better than it was for this current threat when it was at that range.  If we didn't have a warning level event 24 hours away we would be blowing up this thread right now. 

This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow. 

[Paleocene]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow. 

On the other hand, non zero chance of back to back (to back? Getting greedy) warning level events. Pretty cool! But agreed on fail risk

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

On the other hand, non zero chance of back to back (to back? Getting greedy) warning level events. Pretty cool! But agreed on fail risk

I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month. 

[frd]

45 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Really? Was just going by the ensemble member low positions.  Looks like a big cluster in spots that usually work for us. 

Going to have to be a perfect track to prevent thermal issues.  This windown always looked great for a powerful storm, now the question is locking in cold air and the exact track of the low.  

So many recent systems in past years have not worked due to a combination of coastal huggers, inland runners, poor phases, and other issues.  @bluewave has spoken about this in detail the last few years. 

[CAPE]

Pretty impressive snow mean for this range. There are plenty of members with snow for the lowlands, including some SE of our region.

[aldie 22]

That 6z gfs map looks like the old classic north and west snowfall up and down the coast. Could be a fun and torturous week of tracking 

[CAPE]

6z GEFS

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

Going to have to be a perfect track to prevent thermal issues.  This windown always looked great for a powerful storm, now the question is locking in cold air and the exact track of the low.  

So many recent systems in past years have not worked due to a combination of coastal huggers, inland runners, poor phases, and other issues.  @bluewave has spoken about this in detail the last few years. 

Hard to get a more favorable h5 look than this leading up to an east coast storm. Always a risk of non snow p-types if a storm winds up or hugs the coast. The general look up top- a west based/weakening -NAO and an impressive 50-50 low tends to favor a track along/just off the coast.

[CAPE]

The EPS re-strengthens the -NAO just beyond mid month with a ridge retrograding from Scandinavia. Impressive NA look. There should be continued east coast winter storm chances.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro looked completely different from 0z, as in no phase and a strung out H5, but Eps looked more like 0z thankfully. Lol

Edit: No, 0z was better. Need more sleep.

[Bob Chill]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month. 

Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD.

Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12...

[Jersey Andrew]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD.

Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12...

This was the winter we were expecting last year but a year delayed. Absolutely incredible that almost all Mets and forecasts proofed this winter wrong. I’m not saying we are headed for a blend of 1995-96 and 2009-2010 but just thinking about possibility is very exciting!

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS looks cold for Saturday.

Don't tell Chuck

[clskinsfan]

If we can get that bad boy to tuck just a little bit closer.....

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The EPS re-strengthens the -NAO just beyond mid month with a ridge retrograding from Scandinavia. Impressive NA look. There should be continued east coast winter storm chances.

We get a retro Scandy and it could be game on for a couple weeks into the beginning of February.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

We get a retro Scandy and it could be game on for a couple weeks into the beginning of February.

Retro scandy is the most classic way we keep our -NAO going. Very happy seeing this.

[mitchnick]

Where's the Icon going? We'll see soon.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010512&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Where's the Icon going? We'll see soon.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010512&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hard to get too excited with the H5 look.   Kinda looks to positively tilted

[mitchnick]

It fails, but close.

[stormtracker]

Yeah...she slides S and E out to sea

[Bob Chill]

Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms.

I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo. 

 

[stormtracker]

Ok, GFS has the southwest vort more involved/easter.   let's see what this thing is gonna do