January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Moderate snow over the area 1pm Saturday...may get going good too late for our latitude tho

EDIT:  Yeah, just a bit too late...but NYC...gets pummeled

Plenty of time to reel it in

[stormtracker]

Yeah, just a tad too late for us...as is, we get 4-6

PHL 12-14

Jersey, just outside NYC 20+....NYC oddly is a sharp cutoff

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Plenty of time to reel it in

I’d take it.

 

[stormtracker]

It's a Miller A, but has that Miller B type HECS cutoff that screws us.....develops in the gulf..swings out and then straight NNE for PHL north

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, just a tad too late for us...as is, we get 4-6

PHL 12-14

Jersey, just outside NYC 20+....NYC oddly is a sharp cutoff

Another 5”+ on top of what we have in 36hrs of be fine with that. Of course if it gets better so be it. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I’d take it.

 

This far out, absolutely.   We're gonna be tracking next week

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This far out, absolutely.   We're gonna be tracking next week

Lot of lack of sleep comin up 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

 

 

I got in the bed and the Euro was at 117.  With that look, there was no way I was closing this fucking laptop

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I got in the bed and the Euro was at 117.  With that look, there was no way I was closing this fucking laptop

Was anyone in the bed?. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Was anyone in the bed?. 

Don't answer.  Make him go to a website.

[pazzo83]

lol

[Ji]

If we get 5 and Philly NYC get 20....I'd rather it not happen at all

My euro ensembles snow chart blew up tonight lol for next weekend
Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we get 5 and Philly NYC get 20....I'd rather it not happen at all

My euro ensembles snow chart blew up tonight lol for next weekend
Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk


 

Move to New York 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we get 5 and Philly NYC get 20....I'd rather it not happen at all

My euro ensembles snow chart blew up tonight lol for next weekend
Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk


 

The signal on the EPS is about as strong as you get for a possible snowstorm at that range...even better than it was for this current threat when it was at that range.  If we didn't have a warning level event 24 hours away we would be blowing up this thread right now. 

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The signal on the EPS is about as strong as you get for a possible snowstorm at that range...even better than it was for this current threat when it was at that range.  If we didn't have a warning level event 24 hours away we would be blowing up this thread right now. 

You should have followed my lead in the snow prediction thread. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You should have followed my lead in the snow prediction thread. 

I didn't know there was a thread for that...guess I should move my map there

ETA: Oh do you mean the seasonal contest snow predictions?  LOL probably.  I'm glad I'm going to bust!  I said the biggest possible cause of a positive bust would be in the PDO were to go through a phase flip by January...not even to positive but just out of supreme negative territory towards neutral and it did.  I just didn't think that was going to happen...it literally never had before in any example where the PDO was that consistently negative in a cold enso year heading into winter. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn't know there was a thread for that...guess I should move my map there

I meant for the season. My prediction 

 

BWI: 25.5"
DCA:15.7"
IAD: 26.9"
RIC: 13.6"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.2"

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I meant for the season. My prediction 

 

BWI: 25.5"
DCA:15.7"
IAD: 26.9"
RIC: 13.6"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.2"

 

 

Did Richmond and Salisbury just get out of the pool? 

[ravensrule]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Did Richmond and Salisbury just get out of the pool? 

Loll. Your guess is probably going to be surpassed by Monday night. 
 

DCA: 7.1"

IAD: 9.6"

BWI: 8.3"

RIC: 6.3"

SBY: 6.7"

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Loll. Your guess is probably going to be surpassed by Monday night. 
 

DCA: 7.1"

IAD: 9.6"

BWI: 8.3"

RIC: 6.3"

SBY: 6.7"

A couple of those sites probably...but if this pattern produces just a fraction of what it is capable of those numbers will be dwarfed by reality in the next few weeks. 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A couple of those sites probably...but if this pattern produces just a fraction of what it is capable of those numbers will be dwarfed by reality in the next few weeks. 

I would say a decent chance for all of them except for RIC. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The signal on the EPS is about as strong as you get for a possible snowstorm at that range...even better than it was for this current threat when it was at that range.  If we didn't have a warning level event 24 hours away we would be blowing up this thread right now. 

It's the "lifting out of strong -NAO" storm, and a great 50/50 low. I was too early to call it for a warmer storm and probably rain.. the 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed way off the +WPO it was showing earlier today. Enough of a western -NAO ridge holds overhead too... it's not going to be as cold as the coming storm, but will at least be a close call for wintery wx. The 50/50 low suggests it has the potential be another major one.. I'm still not 100% sold on it not mixing though. 

[Ji]

6z gfs shows a phase while the 00z gfs held it back. Lets see what Happens

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

6z gfs shows a phase while the 00z gfs held it back. Lets see what Happens

this

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

6z gfs shows a phase while the 00z gfs held it back. Lets see what Happens

You get more than NYC so you must be happy

[Ji]

6z gfs shows a phase while the 00z gfs held it back. Lets see what Happens

Near blizzard

[Ji]

You get more than NYC so you must be happy

See you at the poconos!

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

See you at the poconos!

I get 17", not road tripping for 24", if I was getting 2 or 3 definitely.  You're welcome to come up here though, its only a little over an hour.  I stopped in the sheets in Leesburg on my way back from IAD this evening. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A little too close to warm air for my liking.. models are usually slightly cold bias at this range, unless you have a killer upper latitude index pattern like tomorrow's 

[Ji]

You get more than NYC so you must be happy

This week is giving me 09-10 vibes …it’s going to look nuts in the dmv by next Sunday l