WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gfs gonna do something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Um Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Oh F word?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sweating thermals, but lot going on down to the south. Got some sleet or something at 165. looks like a broad low trying to form centered over VA Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Time for a real storm. None of this mid stuff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's a bit too diffuse from what I can tell so far. Temps get colder, but barely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Step back for us, but interior Jersey gets it good. NYC on the line (temp wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 They get obliterated on the next panel....NYC. Just gets going too late for us (DC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Scratch. That. A little better than I thought. PHL at 10-15..we're at 4-8...bmore 8-10 NYC: 20. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point. Seriously 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Watch out for the +WPO trend on recent ensemble modeling for the 11th storm.. that pattern trends warmer as we get closer, if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Scratch. That. A little better than I thought. PHL at 10-15..we're at 4-8...bmore 8-10 NYC: 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Better. Like I've been screaming from the rooftops..SV maps absolutely suck. They probably don't figure in sleet like WB...which can also be wonky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point. Seriously Right. It's about all we can expect right now at this range. The threat in general has shown up for a little while, and I recall you mentioning (some pages back) that the "players were on the field but a lot going on" (or words to that effect). Maybe it's trying to hone in on a more discrete threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly tho yall...this is a pretty damn good spot to be in at this point. Seriously Kill that primary 100 miles south and we get blasted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, mattie g said: Kill that primary 100 miles south and we get blasted. And even in this run some of us get a foot. So if it looks like that with a messy/late transfer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: My call is it's a rainstorm for Jan 11th. That would be a typical failure on several fronts. Seems we are going to avoid extreme cold, as the PV getting deflected. https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1875357476503351668 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, frd said: That would be a typical failure on several fronts. Seems we are going to avoid extreme cold, as the PV getting deflected. https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1875357476503351668 Pacific pattern has really evolved in the last few days to now a -PNA/+WPO look for the storm. The pacific pattern takes precedence as effect over the Atlantic, as the last 10+ years have shown clearly. Beyond that, it evolves to an Aleutian ridge. That's a -PNA pattern, with now a trough digging into the NW in the long range. Will be interesting to see if this favorable Pacific only lasts a few more days like what is being modeled. Models were super cold for the time period a short time ago, it was a question of if the 11th storm would merge with the Polar Vortex lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south. Kind of hoping that the cold air from before stays in place for the storm.. -NAO block is gone now, neutral, with some lingering ridging over Canada. I've seen this play before, it evolves toward the upper latitude pattern in the coming days. The +WPO Canadian ridge is going to extend south and kind of cutoff the cold air, unless it evolves away from +WPO in the coming days.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pacific pattern has really evolved in the last few days to now a -PNA/+WPO look for the storm. The pacific pattern takes precedence as effect over the Atlantic, as the last 10+ years have shown clearly. Beyond that, it evolves to an Aleutian ridge. That's a -PNA pattern, with now a trough digging into the NW in the long range. Will be interesting to see if this favorable Pacific only lasts a few more days like what is being modeled. Models were super cold for the time period a short time ago, it was a question of if the 11th storm would merge with the Polar Vortex lolThe 500 plot above is not a -PNA . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looming at 144 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looming at 144 It looks good...but that trof is more positively titled vs 12z. Might not mean much tho...could just be slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It looks good...but that trof is more positively titled vs 12z. Might not mean much tho...could just be slower Ya just put the threat on the map and go from there. We see from the current storm how much we can jump around. Just nice to see something there. Not a ridge, not bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 41 minutes ago, jayyy said: The 500 plot above is not a -PNA In the Pacific you have a ridge under a trough. Hard to get trough to dig too far in the SE with that pattern. It seems the cold air is becoming "stale" at that point, and usually in future runs the whole pattern catches up to what's happening in now time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together What a weird western ridge orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Tomer end of the week https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875693350155592045 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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