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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Starting to like this one more and more.  Wasn't really keen for a bit, but I like it now.   Just give us the GFS about 100 miles S and W a bit

You know I believe train tracks and heaters are a legit phenomenon when it comes to EC snow in general. This period looked like a heater setup over 2 weeks ago. It's reasonable to have some blind optimism right now 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Starting to like this one more and more.  Wasn't really keen for a bit, but I like it now.   Just give us the GFS about 100 miles S and W a bit

yeah we just need to keep seeing that interaction. i thought the GFS was smoking crack but the EPS honking makes me feel better about it

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah we just need to keep seeing that interaction. i thought the GFS was smoking crack but the EPS honking makes me feel better about it

Extreme potential based on deepening. You will like this one for tracking. LETS GO !! 

 

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah we just need to keep seeing that interaction. i thought the GFS was smoking crack but the EPS honking makes me feel better about it

Also would this be considered a HA event based on the NAO reversal? 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Extreme potential based on deepening. You will like this one for tracking. LETS GO !! 

 

lol except I’m in Syracuse mid week and to drive home Saturday :lol:

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I've had my eye on Jan 10-12 since posting here two weeks ago. Love fairly slow moving systems like it. Someone's going to cash in, but the big cities now look to have mixing concerns. The Jan 5-6 Thing should clear the way for better 10-12th modeling.
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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not the 10th/11th thing. It’s a classic jumper that runs from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and then transfers to the coast.

Yessir. Nearly all coastals are hybrids in the sense that slp jumps the coast/redevelops even with the majority of Miller As.  Jan 2000 was a straight up coastal tracker but those are super rare. Otherwise, the handoff is present nearly all the time. 

In my simple mind, any storm that is juicy west of the MS River and tracks entirely south of us is a Miller A. No big lull or weird weaken b4 strengthen again stuff. Just a trackable blob of precip that consistently leaves bigger totals in its wake as it marches NE. 

Miller Bs comes in all shapes and sizes. Jan 2016 was a Miller B if you count where it comes from. It was a NS shortwave that hit the pac NW. Just took an insanely good track and never wobbled in strength much. I personally look at Jan 2016 more as a Miller A but it's debatable 

I no longer like the Miller A/B debate. We know what works and what doesn't and the lines between them are way too muddy to have 2 simple buckets 

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