January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro has the western edge of the Atlantic gyre moviing further east starting noticeably around 78hrs. Whether that's due to weakening or just pulling east, it's hard to tell. 

Plus it has a 540 closed low over Missouri at 102hrs vs 543 on the 12z.

The results of both are likely the reasons, or at least some of them.

I should have added that as a result of the stronger vort, slp at 18z vs 12z wldropped from 999 to 997 at 109hrs.

[TampaMan]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Perhaps you are correct.  Actually it wouldn’t even shock me.  We have lost better outcomes closer in time.  Should look wintry at least.  Unless we lose it all and it’s rain.  Wouldn’t shock me either.  We shall see

Have some pity for me in Richmond. Every single time we get reeled in 4-5 days out and it’s snatched away. Maybe VA/MD just aren’t it anymore. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro has the western edge of the Atlantic gyre moviing further east starting noticeably around 78hrs. Whether that's due to weakening or just pulling east, it's hard to tell. 

Plus it has a 540 closed low over Missouri at 102hrs vs 543 on the 12z.

The results of both are likely the reasons, or at least some of them.

Lets see if those higher verification scores are being put on display starting with this cycle from the Euro.  

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Perhaps you are correct.  Actually it wouldn’t even shock me.  We have lost better outcomes closer in time.  Should look wintry at least.  Unless we lose it all and it’s rain.  Wouldn’t shock me either.  We shall see

Would be pretty surprised, mid to upper 20’s surface temps even in the mixing sections as per the euro depiction. It’s more a warm air push aloft with the primary track that 18z euro run had. let’s see what its ensembles have to say here shortly. 

[TSSN+]

One run of the euro and yall jumping off a cliff, yall too bipolar. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Have some pity for me in Richmond. Every single time we get reeled in 4-5 days out and it’s snatched away. Maybe VA/MD just aren’t it anymore. 

I do my friend.  But don’t abandon ship yet.  It ain’t over

[DDweatherman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I do my friend.  But don’t abandon ship yet.  It ain’t over

Also, I definitely see the chance of CVA getting something in the next storm window regardless of what happens with this one. Favors spots further south until we see runs pull energy up the coast.

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Euro isn’t good for you DC weenies either. Lots of freezing rain. Better hope for a southern shift. 

Yeah, those 6-8 inches are terrible. Freezing rain!? What are we ever gonna do!

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Have some pity for me in Richmond. Every single time we get reeled in 4-5 days out and it’s snatched away. Maybe VA/MD just aren’t it anymore. 

We root for you guys all the time.  If we absolutely had to miss, always hope it’s south and not fucking NYC-Bos 

[H2O]

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

North

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

One run of the euro and yall jumping off a cliff, yall too bipolar. 

If it keeps ticking north 2-3 more runs we are cooked, it’ll be congrats central PA, NJ, and NYC.  We’ll have to see what the EPS is like, and then wait until tomorrow to see whether or not this is a trend or if this will be the northern end of the envelope.  My gut says now this is going to be northern end and it won’t tick away from us but we’ll see. 

[NorthArlington101]

I think it's sleet, not FRZA, despite the maps depiction - apologizes if I'm somehow getting this sounding wrong. DCA never goes below freezing. Problems emerge around 4am and hold til 1pm.

[H2O]

the shift from 12z to 18 is like 80 miles for the max stripe

[H2O]

I mean thats not a subtle shift.  Its huge

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

One run of the euro and yall jumping off a cliff, yall too bipolar. 

Happens every time.

Most of these people aren't going to make it man.

[TampaMan]

You root for us all the time? Come on now. There’s a reason there’s a whole separate thread. Richmond is still the Mid-Atlantic but anytime it’s mentioned people like to dismiss us. 

[wxmvpete]

A little bit of a break down from the 12Z and 18Z guidance. The main discrepancy remains the strength/tilt of the 500mb trough, although the ridging along the West Coast feature differences too. Using 12Z Sunday as the time of interest, the ECMWF/CMC are most bullish on the 500mb trough while the GFS/ICON are weaker and more positively tilted in the 500mb comparison loop. This is also playing a big role in the strength of the emerging LLJ that is drawing up GoM moisture. Guidance like the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are a little slower and not only generally deeper, but also positioned at a more neutral tilt. The GFS/ICON are more positively tilted and weaker in general. This has ramifications with the LLJ (850mb heights and winds comparison loop) as the strong SWrly flow shown on the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET yields not only more moisture/QPF, but a strong frontogentical component as well. Now one caveat is watching the 500mb trough over Lake Superior and western Ontario. That feature, should it make it far enough south and trend stronger, could act to suppress the tilt of the 500mb trough in the Plains and Mid-South on Sunday. Should that happen we would see not only a flatter system, but the moisture source is directed out of the WSW more and yields weaker 850mb FGEN. That can be give an take though, right? Seeing the 18Z ECMWF for example, it has a 70kt 850mb jet over northern AL. While that aids in exceptional moisture transport, that warm nose would also be a problem and make ice a bigger story than snow. This setup would be an exceptional FGEN maker, but at dry slotting would be a problem as the upper trough got closer. 

The NAEFS (last image) shows that even the GEFS/GEPS situational awareness tool shows exceptional moisture transport. That could be a sign of potential trends to come inside of 60 hours, because if that kind of moisture transport exists and more instability can come to fruition, that could sharpen up that IVT more at the Mid-Atlantic. Now most of it is oriented at the Southeast, but should the 500mb trough in the Plains trend stronger in the coming days, that orientation could lead to a better plume of moisture and more QPF to work with. On the flip side, this could cause more ice in parts of the VA Piedmont. Remember the ECMWF is the stronger outlier at the moment, and while the GFS and ICON may be not most folks cup of tea, it is what could happen if this system trends weaker.

Lastly, I wanted to share the differences at 500mb from the 18Z GEFS vs the 12Z GEFS. We're still seeing some notable changes just 36 hours into the period, even before the Pacific disturbance arrives. While its becoming more likely we are seeing in some capacity a measurable snow event, these changes on an ensemble still show there's much more to resolve.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, H2O said:

I mean thats not a subtle shift.  Its huge

[stormtracker]

Just now, RVAman said:

You root for us all the time? Come on now. There’s a reason there’s a whole separate thread. Richmond is still the Mid-Atlantic but anytime it’s mentioned people like to dismiss us. 

I mean if there's a forum wide snow.   Relax dude.   No matter what, the weather doesn't care what we want.   

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

Why do you hate on central VA so much? You’re a main culprit of it. Idc if you’re a moderator. You come across as a douchebag. “If not us, screw you!” Type of energy. 

Randy is the nicest guy or gal in here. You need to slow your roll. It may be time to be 5 posted. Sheesh. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think it's sleet, not FRZA, despite the maps depiction - apologizes if I'm somehow getting this sounding wrong. DCA never goes below freezing. Problems emerge around 4am and hold til 1pm.

That’s sleet for sure. 
 

18z EPS looking solid allegedly?

[HighStakes]

If anyone is lucky enough to get 6-8 inches of snow with a solid coating of ice that would be incredible.  With the post storm cold and other storm chances there would be snow cover for the entire month of January. Who could complain about that?

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Randy is the nicest guy or gal in here. You need to slow your roll. It may be time to be 5 posted. Sheesh. 

He's fine.  I don't feel attacked.  And even so, I don't 5 post people for that.

Now, wish my Commanders well or.......I'll 5 post you.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I mean thats not a subtle shift.  Its huge

I mean..here's the thing.   It's model spray and we're kinda in the middle at this point.   I'm not mad at that.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s sleet for sure. 
 

18z EPS looking solid allegedly?

It's wetter/better for everyone D.C. N, but you don't have to squint your eyes to see a north bump from 12z -> 18z in this larger trend gif. 

 

[T. August]

About .5 of this is from Saturday’s deal -

[Ravens94]

With the speed picking up this might turn into a Sunday morning event really soon 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's wetter/better for everyone D.C. N, but you don't have to squint your eyes to see a north bump from 12z -> 18z in this larger trend gif. 

 

I’d rather a few inches of snow to ice than a miss to the south. Give us moisture and I’ll take my chances 

[wxmvpete]

2 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

A little bit of a break down from the 12Z and 18Z guidance. The main discrepancy remains the strength/tilt of the 500mb trough, although the ridging along the West Coast feature differences too. Using 12Z Sunday as the time of interest, the ECMWF/CMC are most bullish on the 500mb trough while the GFS/ICON are weaker and more positively tilted in the 500mb comparison loop. This is also playing a big role in the strength of the emerging LLJ that is drawing up GoM moisture. Guidance like the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are a little slower and not only generally deeper, but also positioned at a more neutral tilt. The GFS/ICON are more positively tilted and weaker in general. This has ramifications with the LLJ (850mb heights and winds comparison loop) as the strong SWrly flow shown on the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET yields not only more moisture/QPF, but a strong frontogentical component as well. Now one caveat is watching the 500mb trough over Lake Superior and western Ontario. That feature, should it make it far enough south and trend stronger, could act to suppress the tilt of the 500mb trough in the Plains and Mid-South on Sunday. Should that happen we would see not only a flatter system, but the moisture source is directed out of the WSW more and yields weaker 850mb FGEN. That can be give an take though, right? Seeing the 18Z ECMWF for example, it has a 70kt 850mb jet over northern AL. While that aids in exceptional moisture transport, that warm nose would also be a problem and make ice a bigger story than snow. This setup would be an exceptional FGEN maker, but at dry slotting would be a problem as the upper trough got closer. 

The NAEFS (last image) shows that even the GEFS/GEPS situational awareness tool shows exceptional moisture transport. That could be a sign of potential trends to come inside of 60 hours, because if that kind of moisture transport exists and more instability can come to fruition, that could sharpen up that IVT more at the Mid-Atlantic. Now most of it is oriented at the Southeast, but should the 500mb trough in the Plains trend stronger in the coming days, that orientation could lead to a better plume of moisture and more QPF to work with. On the flip side, this could cause more ice in parts of the VA Piedmont. Remember the ECMWF is the stronger outlier at the moment, and while the GFS and ICON may be not most folks cup of tea, it is what could happen if this system trends weaker.

Lastly, I wanted to share the differences at 500mb from the 18Z GEFS vs the 12Z GEFS. We're still seeing some notable changes just 36 hours into the period, even before the Pacific disturbance arrives. While its becoming more likely we are seeing in some capacity a measurable snow event, these changes on an ensemble still show there's much more to resolve.

To see the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) showing moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for most Minor Impacts for most on this forum should instill some confidence that we're dealing with a disruptive event Sunday night into Monday. It's a good signal for 4-5 days out on this product that we generate at WPC. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

A little bit of a break down from the 12Z and 18Z guidance. The main discrepancy remains the strength/tilt of the 500mb trough, although the ridging along the West Coast feature differences too. Using 12Z Sunday as the time of interest, the ECMWF/CMC are most bullish on the 500mb trough while the GFS/ICON are weaker and more positively tilted in the 500mb comparison loop. This is also playing a big role in the strength of the emerging LLJ that is drawing up GoM moisture. Guidance like the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC are a little slower and not only generally deeper, but also positioned at a more neutral tilt. The GFS/ICON are more positively tilted and weaker in general. This has ramifications with the LLJ (850mb heights and winds comparison loop) as the strong SWrly flow shown on the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET yields not only more moisture/QPF, but a strong frontogentical component as well. Now one caveat is watching the 500mb trough over Lake Superior and western Ontario. That feature, should it make it far enough south and trend stronger, could act to suppress the tilt of the 500mb trough in the Plains and Mid-South on Sunday. Should that happen we would see not only a flatter system, but the moisture source is directed out of the WSW more and yields weaker 850mb FGEN. That can be give an take though, right? Seeing the 18Z ECMWF for example, it has a 70kt 850mb jet over northern AL. While that aids in exceptional moisture transport, that warm nose would also be a problem and make ice a bigger story than snow. This setup would be an exceptional FGEN maker, but at dry slotting would be a problem as the upper trough got closer. 

The NAEFS (last image) shows that even the GEFS/GEPS situational awareness tool shows exceptional moisture transport. That could be a sign of potential trends to come inside of 60 hours, because if that kind of moisture transport exists and more instability can come to fruition, that could sharpen up that IVT more at the Mid-Atlantic. Now most of it is oriented at the Southeast, but should the 500mb trough in the Plains trend stronger in the coming days, that orientation could lead to a better plume of moisture and more QPF to work with. On the flip side, this could cause more ice in parts of the VA Piedmont. Remember the ECMWF is the stronger outlier at the moment, and while the GFS and ICON may be not most folks cup of tea, it is what could happen if this system trends weaker.

Lastly, I wanted to share the differences at 500mb from the 18Z GEFS vs the 12Z GEFS. We're still seeing some notable changes just 36 hours into the period, even before the Pacific disturbance arrives. While its becoming more likely we are seeing in some capacity a measurable snow event, these changes on an ensemble still show there's much more to resolve.

You should have a redder tag.