January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

Good event maybe higher upside with better northern stream interaction

[Ji]

Nice storm.... heaviest still a tad SE of us.. but still very nice 06z GFS run

It got pancaked at the last second sorta whst was happening with the Jan 6 storm 3-4 days ago

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

It got pancaked at the last second sorta whst was happening with the Jan 6 storm 3-4 days ago

Got a nice week ahead of us tracking that one

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It got pancaked at the last second sorta whst was happening with the Jan 6 storm 3-4 days ago

Still a nice 3-6/4-8... nothing to sneeze at

[TSSN+]

Euro at 144 on 6z with something developing

 

[mitchnick]

Something we don't usually consider until closer to crunch time, but thought I'd check now is 5H pressure tendencies.  We need ridging out front to push that system north. This map shows very nice ridging developing to block the system from sliding south of us. Obviously, too much is bad, but those details will wait. Suffice to say that the Euro would bring this baby north.

[SnowenOutThere]

9 hours ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

It’s been forever. Even my 18 year old barely remembers 2016…

As someone who is that age I don’t remember anything much before 2016 besides glimpses of storms. I vaguely remember the 2016 blizzard but wish I could recall more about it. The Monday system may be the first time I can truly remember getting 10+ inches of snow (ig Jan 2019 counts too but yk what I mean)

[Ephesians2]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

As someone who is that age I don’t remember anything much before 2016 besides glimpses of storms. I vaguely remember the 2016 blizzard but wish I could recall more about it. The Monday system may be the first time I can truly remember getting 10+ inches of snow (ig Jan 2019 counts too but yk what I mean)

I was in Fredericksburg for Jan 2022 and got 15". Other than that, the only 10"+ storm I remember clearly is the 2016 blizzard. 

I have very vague glimpses of the 2009-2010 winter despite being 7 years old then, because I was a weather nerd, my parents got me a 3-year weather observation book for my 7th birthday 

[DDweatherman]

Fortunate to have good memory I suppose which helps, but can recall all the 2009-2010 storms, the 2011 commutageddon event, 2014, 2016, and some other <10” events in between. The st pattys snow was a nice one in our surge of overperforming winters 2014&2015. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Fortunate to have good memory I suppose which helps, but can recall all the 2009-2010 storms, the 2011 commutageddon event, 2014, 2016, and some other <10” events in between. The st pattys snow was a nice one in our surge of overperforming winters 2014&2015. 

You can recall the winter of 09/10?

I have pictures from that winter and I was already an old fart.

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You can recall the winter of 09/10?

I have pictures from that winter and I was already an old fart.

I can recall further back (PD2, 2006) but just going with the main notables of recent memory. 

[midatlanticweather]

Maybe people are already discussing - but the models definitely showing this trend. 

 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Something we don't usually consider until closer to crunch time, but thought I'd check now is 5H pressure tendencies.  We need ridging out front to push that system north. This map shows very nice ridging developing to block the system from sliding south of us. Obviously, too much is bad, but those details will wait. Suffice to say that the Euro would bring this baby north.

Hey no, stealing our snow!  Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow.  I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow...  Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way?  We've been baaaaaaaad off...

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Maybe people are already discussing - but the models definitely showing this trend. 

 

 

Well that's a fookin buzzkill.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Hey no, stealing our snow!  Seriously though as a guest from the SE forum I am really happy it look slike many of you will get the goods starting tomorrow.  I hope you clean up this winter snow on snow on snow...  Once you're satiated though, could you send a few crumbs our way?  We've been baaaaaaaad off...

The 10-12th setup is pretty good for you and me. Not the same mechanism as the current storm. Won't have such a strong WAA surge and trajectory is pretty good for snowfall from the NC piedmont westward. Strung out Miller A is a good description. Rain/snow line will more vertical instead of horizontal. 

Of course all these thoughts are moot if there is no shortwave to draw things northward. Not at a stage where we can have any confidence in a specific shortwave. Just that heights thru the period favor a good hit in NC and SWVA if other ingredients join the party 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 10-12th setup is pretty good for you and me. Not the same mechanism as the current storm. Won't have such a strong WAA surge and trajectory is pretty good for snowfall from the NC piedmont westward. Strung out Miller A is a good description. Rain/snow line will more vertical instead of horizontal. 

Of course all these thoughts are moot if there is no shortwave to draw things northward. Not at a stage where we can have any confidence in a specific shortwave. Just that heights thru the period favor a good hit in NC and SWVA

Thanks Bob.  I know my climo.  I have no pretensions.  Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters.

Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad.  GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better.  Right now no epic looks.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Maybe people are already discussing - but the models definitely showing this trend. 

 

 

He's using the Gefs. Eps have done much better this winter in the long range. The cold pattern will end in the form of a typical winter thaw. The question then is whether the cold pattern returns, or does the remaing pattern allow us opportunities. Too early to answer that one.

Short was, Eps weeklies gets us around normal last week of this month and then a week of modest (2-3?) AN temps starting the first full week of February. Too early to say beyond that. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Thanks Bob.  I know my climo.  I have no pretensions.  Just would like to get on the board this year after two straight dead ratters.

Looking at the ensembles at the end of their range, none look truly bad.  GEFS seems to look worst, GEPS and EPS look better.  Right now no epic looks.

Do epic looks really matter? Lol. On the balance, the MA and SE get more snow in convoluted ways than epic. Partly because epic is rare but also there's the small detail that height patterns are only 1 piece of the pie for a big storm. 

So models are backing down on the extreme block. What does that mean on the ground? We flip to a warm ridge or just a less extreme version of what we're seeing now? Looks like winter to me on all guidance and it's the heart of Southern snow season. December requires an extreme setup and that applies to DC too. Jan/Feb? Just need winter conditions nearby or in place. I don't see that leaving the east thru the end of Jan. Doesn't mean wall to wall cold of course. I'm sure we'll have some warmer days no matter what. But overall I don't think we can ask for much better other than perfection. 

My biggest fear is simple lack of precip. Extreme and strong blocking has brought both our areas big snow over the years but it's also brought us some of the longest cold/dry periods on record too lol 

[Heisy]

This should be a better run, 12z GFS


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[stormtracker]

Hmmm

[Heisy]

More phasing occurring, see how much is able to round the corner before the kicker comes


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[peribonca]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmmm

I like where this is going...

[stormtracker]

Looks like we're gonna get some snow...just looks a bit underwhelming so far.   It's coming in from the SW

[yoda]

gets sheared out looks like IMO

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like we're gonna get some snow...just looks a bit underwhelming so far.   It's coming in from the SW

Phase looks really messy to my amateur eyes...what say you?

[Heisy]

gets sheared out looks like IMO

I mean it looks much better than 00z and 00z got us decently so…


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[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, yoda said:

gets sheared out looks like IMO

I don't know how to read the upper levels, but when I saw that high directly in front of it I wondered how that wouldn't screw it up, lol

[stormtracker]

Its just sloppy

[Heisy]

This one is always going to be sloppy, but if enough phasing happens and enough energy escapes from the southern ULL there’s a ton of moisture overrrunning possible


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[stormtracker]

Nice hit at 174.  Nothing huge...coastal got close enough