January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[snowmagnet]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. 

We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here.

Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. 

Thanks for that explanation since the stronger pacific jet has been bad for us the past several years.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

Thanks for that explanation since the stronger pacific jet has been bad for us the past several years.  

There are some misconceptions about this and what is 'good' or 'bad'. It isn't that simple. There are also 2 Pacific Jets- The NPAC jet is a part of the Polar Jetstream, and what is often referred to as simply the Pacific jet is part of the Subtropical jet. (there is both a Polar and a subtropical jet in each hemisphere) The STJ is usually quite weak/retracted in a Nina while the Polar jet is predominant, and in a Nino the STJ becomes more prominent and tends to be extended and located further south. That's what gives us the active storm track across the southern US. There are also 'degrees' of retraction/extension with both jets. In general a jet with an extended core of stronger winds favors a ridge in the western US (+PNA), and retractions favor a -PNA.

[87storms]

With how much cold there will be around I think our chances of scoring in the likely Feb pattern is higher than normal given that H5 look...cold will press behind each wave giving us a window of opportunity.  

Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble.

g o o d 
o r
b a d

Good, right?

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nah, follow up is rain too.

Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet.

Key is getting out that s/w quicker than what the GFS shows I think.  Gotta get it to us before the cold retreats.   We might be finished for a bit, but I'm not even close to being down.  

[CAPE]

Just now, bncho said:

g o o d 
o r
b a d

Good, right?

He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Key is getting out that s/w quicker than what the GFS shows I think.  Gotta get it to us before the cold retreats.   We might be finished for a bit, but I'm not even close to being down.  

Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south.

[stormtracker]

Got a minor small event on the 29th on the GFS.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Got a minor small event on the 29th on the GFS.

Gem had something sorta similar on 12z run

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012218&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.

If we don’t get anymore snow I’ll be really close. But I think we will 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south.

If the board got together and financed a trip, would you fly out west and kicked that s/w out?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I think having snow on the ground for most of January is even more satisfying than if we had had a 15 inch snowstorm that was melted in five days.

[stormtracker]

So 18z GFS I guess is somewhat better with the southern slider?  It's colder over us, but it's probably gonna move right on out to sea

[stormtracker]

So for the next "event" (its at 246 after all). Cold is further south and precip is approaching

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So 18z GFS I guess is somewhat better with the southern slider?  It's colder over us, but it's probably gonna move right on out to sea

Soooo hard to make things work.  Northern stream has a vort to either rescue it or push it ots.

[stormtracker]

Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd)  If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen

[mitchnick]

Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think.

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think.

It's not a cutter.  It's a hit

[mitchnick]

Looks great at 252hrs

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So for the next "event" (its at 246 after all). Cold is further south and precip is approaching

Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of.

[NorthArlington101]

This is our pattern relax storm #lockitup

[stormtracker]

Not even worth discussing, but what else we gotta do.   Lose the sfc freezing, but still cold after a good thump

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's not a cutter.  It's a hit

It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point. 

[CAPE]

Well, it moved lol

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of.

For you and me, it's like 8-12. Mitch is at around 4-8.  Oh well.  That was fun

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not even worth discussing, but what else we gotta do.   Lose the sfc freezing, but still cold after a good thump

Switch back on the backside verbatim on the WxBell maps. Funky map 

[CAPE]

Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point. 

Yep. we need some vorticity to eject eastward underneath, but if the mutha load comes out, pretty risky with a +NAO.

[midatlanticweather]

Ha.. Can hope.. Better than nothing showing up 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd)  If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen

Groundhog Day!  We'll have to re-live it again and again and again until we get it right!