mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east. Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs. See how simple this is? Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said: is this not bc of the ghost of the super nino last year? iirc 2016-17 also had some poleward overextensions Please explain in more detail what this means. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The best I've ever seen the Gfs and euro agree day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Let see what the impact is when the pdo is positive. Would you expect the PDO to impact the jet? I thought that was an independent problem due to the Hadley cell expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. Thanks for that explanation since the stronger pacific jet has been bad for us the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: Thanks for that explanation since the stronger pacific jet has been bad for us the past several years. There are some misconceptions about this and what is 'good' or 'bad'. It isn't that simple. There are also 2 Pacific Jets- The NPAC jet is a part of the Polar Jetstream, and what is often referred to as simply the Pacific jet is part of the Subtropical jet. (there is both a Polar and a subtropical jet in each hemisphere) The STJ is usually quite weak/retracted in a Nina while the Polar jet is predominant, and in a Nino the STJ becomes more prominent and tends to be extended and located further south. That's what gives us the active storm track across the southern US. There are also 'degrees' of retraction/extension with both jets. In general a jet with an extended core of stronger winds favors a ridge in the western US (+PNA), and retractions favor a -PNA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 With how much cold there will be around I think our chances of scoring in the likely Feb pattern is higher than normal given that H5 look...cold will press behind each wave giving us a window of opportunity. Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble. g o o d o r b a d Good, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Nah, follow up is rain too. Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet. Key is getting out that s/w quicker than what the GFS shows I think. Gotta get it to us before the cold retreats. We might be finished for a bit, but I'm not even close to being down. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, bncho said: g o o d o r b a d Good, right? He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Key is getting out that s/w quicker than what the GFS shows I think. Gotta get it to us before the cold retreats. We might be finished for a bit, but I'm not even close to being down. Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Got a minor small event on the 29th on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Got a minor small event on the 29th on the GFS. Gem had something sorta similar on 12z run https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012218&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good. If we don’t get anymore snow I’ll be really close. But I think we will 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south. If the board got together and financed a trip, would you fly out west and kicked that s/w out? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think having snow on the ground for most of January is even more satisfying than if we had had a 15 inch snowstorm that was melted in five days. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So 18z GFS I guess is somewhat better with the southern slider? It's colder over us, but it's probably gonna move right on out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So for the next "event" (its at 246 after all). Cold is further south and precip is approaching 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So 18z GFS I guess is somewhat better with the southern slider? It's colder over us, but it's probably gonna move right on out to sea Soooo hard to make things work. Northern stream has a vort to either rescue it or push it ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Snow breaks out by 6z Sunday (Feb fricking 2nd) If this was THIS sunday instead of fucking the next Sunday, it'd be a pre FOLKS about to happen 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, mitchnick said: Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think. It's not a cutter. It's a hit 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks great at 252hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So for the next "event" (its at 246 after all). Cold is further south and precip is approaching Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is our pattern relax storm #lockitup 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Not even worth discussing, but what else we gotta do. Lose the sfc freezing, but still cold after a good thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: It's not a cutter. It's a hit It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Well, it moved lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of. For you and me, it's like 8-12. Mitch is at around 4-8. Oh well. That was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Not even worth discussing, but what else we gotta do. Lose the sfc freezing, but still cold after a good thump Switch back on the backside verbatim on the WxBell maps. Funky map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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