January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[bncho]

22 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I just have to say it. We've been down this "March will be rocking" every year, and more often than not, it doesn't pan out. Last year was the epic pattern post Feb 20th that never was. 

I personally think this was our window, and we kind of lost. As I stated, too cold to snow. That aged well. At least DC south managed to score on Jan 6th. 

Sure, that may be true.
But was our January pattern really a fail? Sure, maybe for you, but most of Maryland and DC scored. Were we supposed to expect two 6-12" miller As with five additions 1-3 and 2-4" events?

[Heisy]

Thought likewise. 

6z out?


.

[mitchnick]

@Heisy and those interested

If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

6z out?


.

Crazy mind think alike. Lol

[mitchnick]

6z AI 

Precip. Move forward from here.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

850's move forward from here

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

[Heisy]

6z AI 
Precip. Move forward from here.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600
850's move forward from here
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600

Holy smokes


.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI.  Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That would be a paste bomb on Euro AI.  Interesting, would love to get something crazy wound up like that and just see what happens.

Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. 

[osfan24]

Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on.....

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro from last night looked pretty interesting. Not seeing much of a warm-up through the whole run with some shots at snow.

Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer. 

There is a LOT of mixing along 95 but goes to snow for the crazy deform band with 3-6" at the end...before that is really iffy.  Sitting right on the 850 0 line the whole time is not usually where you want to be because unless the entire column is exactly isothermal there is going to be a slightly warmer layer somewhere or in between panels. 

Verbatim this run looks like a 6-12" storm for places like Winchester, MRG, My area...4-8" NW of the fall line out to a Purvellville to Westminster line with mixing and 3-6" along 95 with a lot of mixing until that deform band cools the column...  Is it too soon to lock down the exact location of a deform? 

[psuhoffman]

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

[frd]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on.....

 

Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. 

Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. 

At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers !   

Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter. 

 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

 

Sounds like you are aligning your thoughts with HM.  You guys are on the same page, makes sense if we keep the cold on our side, then we can score in early March. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW I am not debbing this threat...was just giving a more accurate description of exactly what that AI run was showing.  This is probably our next and last threat for a bigger snow event for a while....after this we are rooting for a well timed follow up wave and likely our high end would be a 2-4" type thing until we reload the pattern sometime in later Feb.  

Timing up the MJO we are likely looking at sometime between Feb 20-March 1 for that.  I don't think the MJO is the be all and its not doing some grand amplified warm phase run that says shut the lights...but our best pattern did time up with the cold phases of the MJO and it will be harder when its partially traversing the MC and extreme west PAC to keep the boundary under us most of the time.  

Makes sense that there would be a grand finale at the end of the cold pattern as it has happened often over the years. Now all we can do is hope that we're in the bullseye if it does happen.