psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, frd said: Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers ! Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter. I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March. But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season. They were "cold" but not particularly snowy. There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March. Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be. Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March. But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season. They were "cold" but not particularly snowy. There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March. Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be. Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out. I think we have a chance too before the window shuts after around the first of Feb. RIGHT NOW, seems to me, we may have to compromise and mix some ice in there too. I mean, as long as I know ahead of times that all snow is out of the question, I'm cool with ice now that I don't have to drive in it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nice setup at the end of the Gfs. May or may not hit, but it can often work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: AI did well once and flopped once but at least it sticks to its design and doesn’t go from 8” to 1” every 6 hours. Let’s see how it fares this time I actually don't think it "flopped" this last time...it nailed the general location of that wave from over a week out! It always had the max qpf a little NW of 95. In the end it was too liberal on the SE side of the precip band by about 50 miles but the AI is low resolution and I warned it would smooth out details and wouldn't see something like a sharp gradient. That's where the high res models should have helped but they failed us lol. THe AI should be used to give us a general idea of a storm and it did that...it failed at the details its not really meant for. Just my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gfs came close at the end, but that reminds me of 93/94. Just need it south by another 75-100 miles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs came close at the end, but that reminds me of 93/94. Just need it south by another 75-100 miles. I'm cool with some 4" solid ice solution that glaciates my snowpack to help it last maybe an extra week once the warm up hits lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 EPS and GEFS are pretty much out on next Monday… both have a modest signal for next Thursday/Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Snow on the beach at OBX. Other cams further down the page. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/surf-city-pier-north/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ukie gone wild on the northern stream day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie gone wild on the northern stream day 7. GFS same-ish, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z euro vs 6z euro Ai… pretty close. Looks like some energy got left behind on the 12z. Timing of that northern stream wave isn’t good on the OP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: notice the trend for a stronger Pacific jet as we move forward in time, which has been common this year... this helps push the Aleutian ridging closer to AK, allowing the trough in the Rockies to push east a bit more. would be nice to see this keep going I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS same-ish, no? Ukie stronger 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I think the lowlands have a good chance to score more snow this year...if not before things warm in Feb in March. But while it's definitely ended up a little colder/snowier than I anticipated it's still following some of the colder cold neutral or weak enso analogs like 2009 that were identified pre-season. They were "cold" but not particularly snowy. There has been a bit of that...and if 2009 actually is the best analog as I've proposed we actually have got a little lucker this year than we did that year where we had 2 months of cold but barely got any snow until March. Because we've been so freaking warm so often lately we forget how common it is to get cold but not snowy periods...or at least how common that used to be. Because our biggest issue has been its just too warm lately...some have started to think "just give me the cold and I'll take my chances" but that does not always work out. If 2009 is the analog and next year we get 2010, I think we will deal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I took the 8 best analogs in the last 30 years...threw out the high and low outliers and came up with an over under for snow from Feb 1 to the end of winter for various locations. IAD: 8" DCA: 4" BWI: 5" Manchester MD: 17" 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us Might be setting up something pretty cool way out in fantasy range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 With how much cold there will be around I think our chances of scoring in the likely Feb pattern is higher than normal given that H5 look...cold will press behind each wave giving us a window of opportunity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. Even if that phase it verbatim is close a cad ice storm event, and has another opportunity set up behind it. I do agree that if we want an all snow/frozen outcome that the NS phase wont work but I think a minor event could still happen depending on CAD strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. I'm glad that is helping the cause this year, but it doesn't bode well for chances of getting a nice clean miller A in future Ninos if that Pac Jet stays permanently jacked up. I'm hoping it collapses...just wait til the end of this winter first . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm glad that is helping the cause this year, but it doesn't bode well for chances of getting a nice clean miller A in future Ninos if that Pac Jet stays permanently jacked up. I'm hoping it collapses...just wait til the end of this winter first . Let see what the impact is when the pdo is positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z AI....worth keeping an eye on..... This type of set up suggests blocking like it a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AI wayyyy west and warm. Worse than any operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, mitchnick said: There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure. LOL please don't crash looking at the 300 hour Euro AI. If we had a HECS inside of 100 hours it might be worth it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time. is this not bc of the ghost of the super nino last year? iirc 2016-17 also had some poleward overextensions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure. Nah, follow up is rain too. Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 it phases with the NS out in the midwest...that wont work no matter what the exact location of the features is. Correct, the difference was around the time period the euro left energy behind and timed the northern stream with the little wave that was able to escape. Haven’t seen the Ai but I assume it did something like the CMC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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