January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Fozz]

36 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to underperform.

Parts of Louisiana and Texas now have more snow than DC. If that remains the case for the rest of this season I am not looking forward to the inevitable hurricane of butthurt from the weenies.

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

I don’t know what’s in store for us in the next few weeks, but at some point this has to change course.

The light snow from this weekend was nice, especially in time for this cold blast, but I’m not done or ready to call it a winter.

I might head to the mountains late this weekend and take Monday off.

[CAPE]

First things first. Early next week is still on the table with some energy ejecting out of the SW. No way to know at this point how exactly the NS energy will interact. GEFS suggests some potential exists.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

West and North I can actually understand due to latitude and elevation. Garret County will almost always get more snow than Baltimore County and New York will almost always get more snow than DC.

[LordBaltimore]

On the bright side there is something to be said about the lack of a January torch this year. Current guidance doesn't suggest we'll get above 50 until February. Looking through climate records, would be the first time in at least 25 years without a monthly high above 55 degrees for a lot of places

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Kyrie Irving called, he would like a word!  

Complete moron, may be the dumbest human being in the world. 

[Heisy]

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




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[anotherman]

Complete moron, may be the dumbest human being in the world. 

But he thinks he’s smart. The worst.

[IronTy]

Man, just looked up and the wind chills on the Gulf Coast are colder than here right now!   Crazy.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Yep! Being on the outside looking in, and being told to be content with 1-3” while places south or west or north of us get 8-10”, all starts getting old.

I don’t know what’s in store for us in the next few weeks, but at some point this has to change course.

The light snow from this weekend was nice, especially in time for this cold blast, but I’m not done or ready to call it a winter.

I might head to the mountains late this weekend and take Monday off.

 

59 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

West and North I can actually understand due to latitude and elevation. Garret County will almost always get more snow than Baltimore County and New York will almost always get more snow than DC.

Yeah being missed to N & W feels like climo (still kinda sucks but you get it). But being missed to the south many times in a row feels like a troll, lol Because you know it's not your elevation, it just didn't get to ya for no reason whatsoever. 

@Fozz Like I've said before, for once I'd like to NOT have to practice gratitude and settling for getting a fringe amount! But, what can ya do but try to enjoy it anyway...

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.

The February warmup has been foretold by Joe Badstardi.  Don't worry though, today he said March should flip back to cold...

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Yeah being missed to N & W feels like climo (still kinda sucks but you get it). But being missed to the south many times in a row feels like a troll, lol Because you know it's not your elevation, it just didn't get to ya for no reason whatsoever. 

@Fozz Like I've said before, for once I'd like to NOT have to practice gratitude and settling for getting a fringe amount! But, what can ya do but try to enjoy it anyway...

Yeah my point is that when you get fringed in all directions then it sucks a lot more than if it’s just the usual N/W hits.

And a lot of us feel exactly how you feel, about wanting something more than just being grateful for advisory amounts or being happy for others.

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

I used to do aerospace flight test telemetry and over the horizon is real, I can attest.  Job would've been much easier if the earth was flat. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, @mitchnick, I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




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Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there.

Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there.

Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol

 

[Heisy]

 

Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about


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[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Fine by me personally, way too far out, it has a storm that’s all I care about


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Not really cold either unfortunately. 850's

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This guy lost me at 7" of snow LOL where is your snow board?

I saw him measure it with a measuring Tape at a convenience store on the Lot in the Video . 

[pazzo83]

lol cut these folks some slack, they live in fucking Florida.

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not really cold either unfortunately. 850's

That looks rather PAC zonal. Sleep we shall get.  Wake in mid Feb. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That looks rather PAC zonal. Sleep we shall get.  Wake in mid Feb. 

It's just a temporary relaxation as the cold from Canada does head south, but the pattern doesn't look snowy at the start of February. 

[Ji]

End of 18z euro, you can see better push S with Northern stream, [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention], I’ll be curious if the 18z euro Ai follows that and leads to a colder outcome for the infamous bowling ball




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Ai looking good.
Seeing it roll in

[Ji]

Ai looking good.
Seeing it roll in

It’s good that it’s south of us right now

[Heisy]

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





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[Ji]

[Ji]

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





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Mitch has to see it exactly the way he wants or it’s a bad run

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Mitch this run is much better overall. Without the northern stream push this is a rainstorm. You can see it even builds a HP at 200 hours

This is really close to a big one… only thing worth tracking outside the small Monday/Tuesday light event





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I agree it has potential, but that's as far as I'll go right now. If this was the kind of season where we were getting hit left and right like 13/14, then I'd be more optimistic. So I'm clear and to avoid some idiotic post by some idiot who can't read, I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, just that I don't see enough to be optimistic at this point.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Mitch has to see it exactly the way he wants or it’s a bad run

Verbatim, surface temps are between +4 - +8C. You're right, that's not exactly the way I want it.

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Verbatim, surface temps are between 25-29, heavy snow (1-3" per hour) that lasts 24 hours, total snow 32" (17.8" at DCA). You're right, that's exactly the way I want it.

 

[psuhoffman]

If we do go into a milder period in Feb we will probably flip cold in March.  Not because JB says so...because the statistics say so.

If we look at all cold enso years, including cold neutral, in the last 30 years...and take years where January had a significant cold period and a more poleward pacific ridge, we come up with 8 analogs.

Analogs January h5: looks very similar to this year 

Analog pattern for February

Also looks close to what guidance is showing...we did snow in a few of those years in Feb but some of them were pretty lean...

But almost all of them flipped cold again for some portion of March and 7/8 years featured a March snowstorm for at least a portion of our region.  

March...

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we do go into a milder period in Feb we will probably flip cold in March.  Not because JB says so...because the statistics say so.

If we look at all cold enso years, including cold neutral, in the last 30 years...and take years where January had a significant cold period and a more poleward pacific ridge, we come up with 8 analogs.

Analogs January h5: looks very similar to this year 

Analog pattern for February

Also looks close to what guidance is showing...we did snow in a few of those years in Feb but some of them were pretty lean...

But almost all of them flipped cold again for some portion of March and 7/8 years featured a March snowstorm for at least a portion of our region.  

March...

Agree. Said over the La Nina thread a few times I believe.  And this attachment supports the idea with the westerly wind burst that's actually getting going now, so it's not a pipe dream forecast.