nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 D10 hit on the Euro 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nice dump of cold air. Legit cross polar flow at the end of the run. 0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end. I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading? Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm more here to learn than anything else, and I know there was some talk not too long ago that the pattern coming up around the second week of January could be one of those "too cold to snow" setups, and to my untrained eye, I feel like we've lost that look. Like, it'll still be plenty cold next in the weeks ahead, but all those drastically cold temperature outputs that were being shown have kind of backed off, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 looks like a reload in 2 weeks 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like a reload in 2 weeks Bamm Wx says reload. Webb says warmth is on the way end of the month in the East. Meanwhile over in the NY forum bluewave is talking about why we are not getting typical SECS and MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 this guy is usually very conservative https://x.com/_jwall/status/1875253894525464741 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 New CPC 3-4 week has below average temps and above average precip for the coldest time of the year. I was thinking a -PNA would start to get going at that time, as the La Nina is really strengthening right now, but that's not what these maps show.. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Heisy said: End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144 . Figures. 18z Gfs lost what it was working on the prior 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144.It keeps teasing that, but then it still gets stuck in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 36 minutes ago, Ji said: It keeps teasing that, but then it still gets stuck in the southwest It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too.... 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too.... So basically the opposite of last year's predicted "blocking"? Awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS Phasing this run so it should bring up some moisture . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah. it looks way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looks good here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's close. Snows up this way. Moderate. Low on hatteras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases . It doesn't have big dog potential at all, or just the way its being depicted on the models right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Heading away..still snowing at 186, then out at 21z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Heavy snow in eastern NC not a sign it's coming all the way up usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I would think in those positions we would see some phasing going on. The GFS gets it done. But if we can get some interaction between the vorts we have a chance for a big dog. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Almost 4-6 (on shit SV maps) to DC..2-4 north of there. Northern neck down to VA beach heaviest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It’s like a 3-6”er verbatim. 5-8 CVA south. I’d fly back in for this one if it pans out. Not doing this twice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It doesn't have big dog potential at all, or just the way its being depicted on the models right now? It’s because of the spacing of the pattern, but it certainly has potential to be a nice event for mid Atlantic and southeast. It’s a tentative situation it all matters how far E that cutoff pushes. 00z gfs we’d all sign on the dotted line I think, snow on snow . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Big improvement over 18z. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 What’s also cool is that storm phasing and coming east may help the pattern beyond that as well ha, good times for you mid Atlantic folks ahead hopefully . 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Several inches on top of whatever falls on Monday would be tremendous especially after years of futility we've endured. It's always great to be tracking the next event before the first one is done. There probably is a limit on how big this one can get but who cares. Looks like another cold storm too. We need to capitalize on this pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts