January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.  

Nice dump of cold air. Legit cross polar flow at the end of the run.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET

of course something interesting happens when I'm not paying attention

[stormtracker]

One behind it would be good too if it weren't for the front running s/w screwing up the flow methinks.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.  

I like it.   There's some serious upside to that one

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.  

alot of wasted potential. It leave so much energy back lol. i have never seen a string like that before lol

 

[nj2va]

D10 hit on the Euro

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice dump of cold air. Legit cross polar flow at the end of the run.

0Z GEFS and GEPS both show an eastern conus trough at the end.  I didn't like the look on the 0Z Euro at 384 but maybe it was just reloading?

 

Edit: not sure what I was looking at but the 0Z EPS look snot bad at 360...

[Steve25]

I'm more here to learn than anything else, and I know there was some talk not too long ago that the pattern coming up around the second week of January could be one of those "too cold to snow" setups, and to my untrained eye, I feel like we've lost that look. Like, it'll still be plenty cold next in the weeks ahead, but all those drastically cold temperature outputs that were being shown have kind of backed off, no? 

[Ji]

looks like a reload in 2 weeks

 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks like a reload in 2 weeks

 

 

Bamm Wx says reload. Webb says warmth is on the way end of the month in the East. 

Meanwhile over in the NY forum bluewave is talking about why we are not getting typical SECS and MECS. 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

this guy is usually very conservative

https://x.com/_jwall/status/1875253894525464741

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC 3-4 week has below average temps and above average precip for the coldest time of the year. 

 

I was thinking a -PNA would start to get going at that time, as the La Nina is really strengthening right now, but that's not what these maps show.. 

[Heisy]

End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144




.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144




.

Figures. 18z Gfs lost what it was working on the prior 2 runs.

[Ji]

End of 18z euro, phasing the southern vort, would have loved to see that beyond 144




.

It keeps teasing that, but then it still gets stuck in the southwest

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

It keeps teasing that, but then it still gets stuck in the southwest

It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. 

Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too....

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. 

Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too....

So basically the opposite of last year's predicted "blocking"? Awesome 

[mitchnick]

Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hm 

[Heisy]

GFS Phasing this run so it should bring up some moisture


.

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. it looks way better. 

[Heisy]

This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases


.

[mitchnick]

Looks good here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[stormtracker]

It's close.  Snows up this way.  Moderate.  Low on hatteras

[Steve25]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This doesn’t really have big dog potential because there’s not a lot of room with the shortwave behind it crashing over the ridge, could be a classic 2-5” type event if enough energy phases


.

It doesn't have big dog potential at all, or just the way its being depicted on the models right now? 

[stormtracker]

Heading away..still snowing at 186, then out at 21z Sat

[mitchnick]

Heavy snow in eastern NC not a sign it's coming all the way up usually. 

[clskinsfan]

I would think in those positions we would see some phasing going on. The GFS gets it done. But if we can get some interaction between the vorts we have a chance for a big dog. 

[stormtracker]

Almost 4-6 (on shit SV maps) to DC..2-4 north of there.  Northern neck down to VA beach heaviest

[NorthArlington101]

It’s like a 3-6”er verbatim. 5-8 CVA south. I’d fly back in for this one if it pans out. Not doing this twice.