CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I really need to see at least the AO negative, if not the NAO as well, to get really interested. That would be better, but a favorable Pacific can deliver as long as it doesn't get completely hostile up top. GEFS has the AO trending closer to neutral around the end of the month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 As long as the AO doesn’t go extremely positive we can still get some snow. The odds of a 6”+ event along 95 go way down but 2-4” type events are definitely still possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 33 minutes ago, Ji said: at any rate--im ready to move on to next winter. Suppression is the worst weather feature. Lets try a Nino next year with a better PDO and see what happens. You're right. Month and a half left of something decent that could pop up but it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 End of icon looks somewhat similar to the Ai, models will probably eventually bring the bowling ball East. We just will need the N/S and confluence to cooperate . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 hours ago, Jebman said: Bands are forming over south Texas. One is training over Buda with all snow now, light to moderate, 27/25, NE winds gusting to 27mph. About a half inch of snow, some sleet embedded earlier. @Jebman - I don't even know where to begin - you are in freaking Texas!!! We're not talking a dusting here, folks. Oh no. You are going to get a "parade of plumes", a "bomb cyclone Tex-Mex fiesta" dropping white gold on cacti and tumbleweeds like it's trying to rewrite the state's weather legacy. Houston? Gone. Galveston? Forget it. Buda? It’s a snow and ice-encrusted snowy winter wonderland now. Models were SCREAMING about this for days, but who believed it? It’s Texas! The land of brisket, 100-degree football games, and air conditioners melting asphalt. Yet here we are. You will be buried in widespread 2" and locally higher amounts!!! Texas meteorologists are blinking like deer in headlights. DFW will shut down based on cold air alone. San Antonio is desperately trying to learn what the heck a snowplow is. Cars will be sliding around like penguins on Crisco. And you know the media will be losing its mind. "Historic Winter Blast!" “Arctic Apocalypse!” Jim Cantore might as well camp out on the Alamo steps at this point. Stock up on popcorn and watch Texans attempt to drive in this mess. A shoutout to the heroes who’ve never seen snow but are still trying to shovel their driveways with BBQ spatulas. @Jebman - this is your time - your moment - you alone can TEACH THEM HOW TO SHOVEL!!!! This cold will be dug in like a tick on a hound dog. Congrats Texas -- you’re the new Alberta for a week!! 9 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, MountainGeek said: @Jebman - I don't even know where to begin - you are in freaking Texas!!! We're not talking a dusting here, folks. Oh no. You are going to get a "parade of plumes", a "bomb cyclone Tex-Mex fiesta" dropping white gold on cacti and tumbleweeds like it's trying to rewrite the state's weather legacy. Houston? Gone. Galveston? Forget it. Buda? It’s a snow and ice-encrusted snowy winter wonderland now. Models were SCREAMING about this for days, but who believed it? It’s Texas! The land of brisket, 100-degree football games, and air conditioners melting asphalt. Yet here we are. You will be buried in widespread 2" and locally higher amounts!!! Texas meteorologists are blinking like deer in headlights. DFW will shut down based on cold air alone. San Antonio is desperately trying to learn what the heck a snowplow is. Cars will be sliding around like penguins on Crisco. And you know the media will be losing its mind. "Historic Winter Blast!" “Arctic Apocalypse!” Jim Cantore might as well camp out on the Alamo steps at this point. Stock up on popcorn and watch Texans attempt to drive in this mess. A shoutout to the heroes who’ve never seen snow but are still trying to shovel their driveways with BBQ spatulas. @Jebman - this is your time - your moment - you alone can TEACH THEM HOW TO SHOVEL!!!! This cold will be dug in like a tick on a hound dog. Congrats Texas -- you’re the new Alberta for a week!! Talk about a great reverse impression of Jeb for some Texas snow. Classic. @Jebman HEAD TO LOUISIANA with a shovel! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 56 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Obx cams https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/ https://avalonpier.com/piercam/ i love the outer banks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Look at the Louisiana webcams and live vicariously. 6-8" with blizzard conditions. Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 the GFS does not want to move the upper level low....that wont work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON has a period of light snow Monday for us, nothing big but worth keeping an eye on. Could pad the stats a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS does not want to move the upper level low....that wont work maybe its waiting for the right time...like a arctic high dropping in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing Day After Tomorrow scene in action. Gotta get to Mexico to avoid the new ice age. EDIT: I guess this would qualify as a BECS for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So what's our next period of interest? Looks pretty quiet on the ensembles for the next 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oy...given what's happened imby the last 9 years, that stings. But I'm happy for them to be able to see a rare event, tho! That is amazing Amazing it is https://www.klfy.com/sky10-camera-network/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Puking stellar dendrites in Lafayette lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Ji said: lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season It's an ugly run. Dark times ahead if it's right. It won't be. It has a new solution every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So what's our next period of interest? Looks pretty quiet on the ensembles for the next 10-15 days. Monday is still on the table. Beyond that around Feb 2 or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 hours ago, mitchnick said: Don't know if anyone has looked closely, but modeling is back to looking warm the start of February. Honestly, I think it's inevitable. Weeklies went back to the warm look for every week in February after a step back from it yesterday. We'll see. Hopefully models are missing something...like weenie desires. I think its almost inevitable as nearly always the case. A long cold pattern is followed by a mild pattern. When the arctic empties it takes a while to reload, if it is........ I would expect a milder at least first half of February, then a return to colder into March. GEFS most pronounced. ECM thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I guess the 30/31st event went poof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 29 minutes ago, Ji said: lol taking the GFS 120 hours to move the ULL from Cali to Texas . By the time it gets here--it will be baseball season It'll make it after it warms up enough to be Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 One of my good friend who lives in Baton Rouge 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Live vicariously through the blizzard conditions in Louisiana. Now I know we are on threshold of hell. Right at the flaming gates. Guy with a pitchfork in red is taking reservations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This January seems to be spreading the snow love everywhere where everyone gets some snow. We got ours Jan 6, south got it Jan 10, nrn folks got theirs 2 days ago, and now the gulf coast is getting it too. Blows a big hole in the “south of 40N is SOL” narrative. Love it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The link to the cams in Lafayette has a tutorial on how to properly measure snow. Now that's one for the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 41 minutes ago, Ji said: One of my good friend who lives in Baton Rouge yep, there might be more snow in this storm than one that occured in the late 1800s... over a century later, the same thing is happening. should make a lot of people stop and think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Euro a snooze too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not sure how this anomalous event disproves a warming planet, but sure. I will say this - it’s encouraging to see these type of events still occur despite the warming. Perhaps we can still snow into the foreseeable future. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro a snooze too. i saw some opportunities in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, Wxdood said: yep, there might be more snow in this storm than one that occured in the late 1800s... over a century later, the same thing is happening. should make a lot of people stop and think. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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