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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

I am in IT and the amount of DevOps tools that are released every year makes your head spin. Before it was the regular Microsoft, Apache, Oracle software. Now there's hundreds of DevOps software. When I start a new project someone mentions that they need this software. Something I never heard of before. It's always something new.

Starting as a mainframe operator in the early '70s I worked my way up to programmer then applications analyst. I ended up a contractor at NAVSEA in Crystal City then left the computer world entirely in the late '80s. It's been fascinating seeing the continued development of this field from the outside where one quickly becomes a dinosaur.  

Note: Before any of that my "work" was as an airman sitting at a large air defense console connected to the largest computer ever built (250 tons using 3 megawatts of electricity.) That was the "Q7" a NORAD computer whose existence was long unknown to the public. Each control center (mine was HQ 20th Air Division at Ft. Lee, Va. for defense of the Southeast U.S. (Chesapeake Bay to Key West and inland to the Mississippi River)) had a pair of them. They were incredible machines! https://www.wikiwand.com/en/articles/AN/FSQ-7_Combat_Direction_Central 

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41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve seen comments were in a Nina base state but I don’t see it. It looks more hybrid which you could argue is an enso neitral look. The look in the North Pacific is Nina ish but the look in the west central pacific is most definitely not. And frankly that’s more important imo. A wpo ridge that’s not connected to the tropics is not nearly as damaging to the downstream pattern as a full latitude central pac ridge.  
 

The STJ is kinda in between too. More active than a true Nina but definitely not to Nino territory. 

Exactly PSU . Right on the Money !

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32 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Some similarities to 81/82 winter which I think was a neutral.

It was also the last cold neutral after an El Nino we had which is surprising after 40 years.  92-93 and 03-04 were more warm neutrals after El Nino winters.  

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14 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Try some imodium while watching timelapse: 

 Th

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

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35 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate.  Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.

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1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago?

In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc

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2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

They are comparing temperatures  now. To temps 100 years ago ...   but they don't realise that the thermometers  back then were horribly inaccurate. I mean how did they calibrate then back then???   So we might not be as warm as they say compared to  back then!! Lol

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate.  Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.

Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes. 

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2 hours ago, TSG said:

What exactly do you imagine the world was like 100 years ago?

In 1925 the first TV broadcast was made, quantum physics had already been discovered/proposed, and the first patent for a field-effect transistor was filed. Arguably the most important invention in human history. We had accurate thermometers... jfc

I teach a course in instrumentation, including temperature measurement(one of my favorite topics)- sensor types, accuracy, tolerance, and calibration. NBS has been around since 1901. Thermometers in the early 1900s were as accurate as a tenth of a degree-plenty good enough for weather purposes. Platinum RTDs are used today in most cases for temperature measurement for industrial applications and weather, but require electrical/electronic circuits to measure the resistance change with temperature. Accuracy varies, and in some cases may be worse than the early thermometers.

 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's.

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13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well.  I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion.  Can we winter it for another 2 months?

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23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Houston under a warning for 3-5”, unbelievable. 

I guess that means we’re still not too far south for it to snow here. Many of us were thinking that over the last two winters

I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy.

So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO.

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35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think we are ok as long as we have a pattern that brings Arctic or Continental Polar air southward. Too much Maritime polar air that moderates as it moves southward is more iffy.

So yeah, we need a -AO and/or a -EPO.

The past two winters had all the cold air go to the other side of the globe. Siberia had record breaking cold. This year, though, we’ve had an open feed of cold to our side. The EPO helps bring it to our side, while the AO keeps it here longer. 

I’ll be tracking the gulf coast storm soon, it will be fun and interesting to watch

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