January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take the dusting at 15 degrees the EURO is showing Tuesday night. Sold. 

We better because there's nothing else on the run I presume. 

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We better because there's nothing else on the run I presume. 

Coastl develops at 150 but same as it ever was...too far offshore 

[Amped]

If this 500mb troff position isn't good enough for a snowstorm we all need a new hobby.

[mitchnick]

Euro AI in lala land 1/31-2/1 looks like a big deal with some precip issues but still decent snow. Sorta reminds me of some big events. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI in lala land 1/31-2/1 looks like a big deal with some precip issues but still decent snow. Sorta reminds me of some big events. 

Anything before that Mitch? 
 

 

[Heisy]

If this 500mb troff position isn't good enough for a snowstorm we all need a new hobby.

Flow behind the wave, the energy crashing over the ridge disrupts everything I think


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[mitchnick]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Anything before that Mitch? 
 

 

No. There are a couple shots of precip, but they look like fronts. There is a warmup or 2 between now and February, but nothing that bad except for maybe a day or 2? Hard to tell until TT and Pivotal update in the next 30-40 minutes. 

Again, I could be off on my opinion as to precip type and I'm focusing on the Mid Atlantic so areas to the north and west would be colder.

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Flow behind the wave, the energy crashing over the ridge disrupts everything I think


.

The high over the Carolinas causes issues with blocking the coastal formation.  However, if anything similar to that H5 look verifies I'd bet on the surface low being stronger and closer to the coast, it's a pretty classic look.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

If this 500mb troff position isn't good enough for a snowstorm we all need a new hobby.

Pretty close, but want it to be neutral/slightly negative right there. That could work for a coastal scraper, but more likely offshore.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No. There are a couple shots of precip, but they look like fronts. There is a warmup or 2 between now and February, but nothing that bad except for maybe a day or 2? Hard to tell until TT and Pivotal update in the next 30-40 minutes. 

Again, I could be off on my opinion as to precip type and I'm focusing on the Mid Atlantic so areas to the north and west would be colder.

I'd like to here @psuhoffman take on the end of the month once WxBell, TT, update with real maps.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd like to here @psuhoffman take on the end of the month once WxBell, TT, update with real maps.

I’ll take a look at the long range when I get home in a bit. Been focused mostly on tomorrow. 

[psuhoffman]

The storm around day 13 on the euro ai is snow to ice…1-3” around DC to about 6” mostly snow along the PA line.  But way too early to worry about that. It’s a decent looking setup. Lots of CAD. 
 

Overall…. It’s always possible the waves next week trend north but the trough is more positively tilted than I want to see and the baroclinic boundary is really far south. 
 

I said a week ago I saw 3 chances and I doubted we got shutout on all 3 and we won’t but the snow looks to be tomorrow.  I’m not saying stop tracking next week but they so favor south of us unless the trough trends significantly more amplified and negative. 
 

I think our next good chance is around Jan 26-30 as the TPV pulls out but there is a lot of cold left over. We would need any wave not to amplify too soon and bomb to our west to work but that hasn’t been the MO this year. The PDO flip is helping there.  We will be close to the boundary again and I could see something like this weekend replaying in that time period but like this weekend it won’t be seen until inside 100 hours!  
 

Super long range I don’t like the long wave look early Feb.  But it’s not that far from something better. If the pacific trough trends east just a few degrees and the ridge in Siberia ends up more poleward to depress the TPV on out side it’s a good pattern. But as is it’s a zonal pattern with us on the wrong side of the boundary. But cold will be lurking close and it would be a quick flip back to good if either of the things I mentioned happen. And there are going to be errors at day 15 so it’s very possible if not likely it ends up better in reality. 

[psuhoffman]

Also the euro looks to have won the mjo war and the mjo is not going to take a super amplified traverse in the MC. We might get a weak warm phase traverse but not a month wrecking mjo look imo. 

[stormtracker]

GFS keeps it close for the friday system

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS keeps it close for the friday system

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Well, that is close. So close. Plenty of time to reel this one in, too

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Yup.   gotta pull it in

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Well, that is close. So close. Plenty of time to reel this one in, too

H5 doesn’t look bad. Hopefully it gets a little better and brings it up the coast more. 

[Amped]

One more thing about the Friday system is it reminds me a lot of the setup a few days after the Blizzard of 96. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0112.php#picture

Edit: Throw in the Februrary 2001 setup also.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2001/us0205.php

[mitchnick]

Rgem at 84 hrs

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025011818&fh=84&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, Amped said:

One more thing about the Friday system is it reminds me a lot of the setup a few days after the Blizzard of 96. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0112.php#picture

Edit: Throw in the Februrary 2001 setup also.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2001/us0205.php

Cansips has next Friday fwiw.

[Ji]

Cansips has next Friday fwiw.

So does 18z euro

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm around day 13 on the euro ai is snow to ice…1-3” around DC to about 6” mostly snow along the PA line.  But way too early to worry about that. It’s a decent looking setup. Lots of CAD. 
 

Overall…. It’s always possible the waves next week trend north but the trough is more positively tilted than I want to see and the baroclinic boundary is really far south. 
 

I said a week ago I saw 3 chances and I doubted we got shutout on all 3 and we won’t but the snow looks to be tomorrow.  I’m not saying stop tracking next week but they so favor south of us unless the trough trends significantly more amplified and negative. 
 

I think our next good chance is around Jan 26-30 as the TPV pulls out but there is a lot of cold left over. We would need any wave not to amplify too soon and bomb to our west to work but that hasn’t been the MO this year. The PDO flip is helping there.  We will be close to the boundary again and I could see something like this weekend replaying in that time period but like this weekend it won’t be seen until inside 100 hours!  
 

Super long range I don’t like the long wave look early Feb.  But it’s not that far from something better. If the pacific trough trends east just a few degrees and the ridge in Siberia ends up more poleward to depress the TPV on out side it’s a good pattern. But as is it’s a zonal pattern with us on the wrong side of the boundary. But cold will be lurking close and it would be a quick flip back to good if either of the things I mentioned happen. And there are going to be errors at day 15 so it’s very possible if not likely it ends up better in reality. 

Euro weeklies, after being off and on about it, have decided to go AN starting right after the start of February right thru until the end. Obviously, the chance that it's correct isn't that high...BUT, unlike prior years, they have been pretty darn good with the duration and extent of the  cold since mid-Nov this year. So assuming their accuracy continues, we need to score over the next 2-3 weeks because it will be getting tough after that. 

That said, the AN range they have us in is between 1-3C, which isn't a blowtorch, but with a ridge painted around the eastern, southern, and western borders of the Conus, it's not conducive to a decent snow pattern. A link to the 5H pattern for those interested is below. It is for "N America." If you change the view to "North Pole," you can see how a stripe of AN heights is painted around almost the entire N Hemisphere. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So does 18z euro

Did @psuhoffman say that Friday Storm comes with the “relax” of our pattern for a moment? Kinda like that one. Wednesday is a little dead to me beyond a frigid dusting. 

[mitchnick]

A p.s. to my post above. 

Even though Enso 3.4 is not an official Niña, and probably won't be, a Niña background state exists across the N Hemisphere in many respects. We need the Niña background state to bug out fast if we want a shot in February imho. The silver lining is, as I  and others have mentioned, there's a good chance we get another shot at cold in March as is typical for Niñas.  It's just harder to get cold enough so we have those pesky boundary temp issues.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

One more thing about the Friday system is it reminds me a lot of the setup a few days after the Blizzard of 96. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0112.php#picture

Edit: Throw in the Februrary 2001 setup also.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2001/us0205.php

Reminds me of January 2000.

[NorthArlington101]

[mattie g]

I’ve been thinking that we don’t get through next week without at least a minor event. Tomorrow will probably ruin wave spacing or flow or whatever for a big event with the following wave, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we won’t be shut out before the cold relaxes. Maybe like a super cold inch or two or something like that.

[Heisy]

So does 18z euro

It’s got potential but the damn ridge rolls over so everything is speeding up the wave. Without that happening this thing would have bombed out like some of the old GFS runs had it doing. Shame. Still, as is could back it up for a scraper at least.


.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s got potential but the damn ridge rolls over so everything is speeding up the wave. Without that happening this thing would have bombed out like some of the old GFS runs had it doing. Shame. Still, as is could back it up for a scraper at least.


.

The northern stream sw might develop some light snow as the euro showed