January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not saying we shouldn’t be looking but I love how we toss the GFS at 80 hours yet are glued to it for a storm at 200hrs 

If a better MR model was coming out now, we would. But this is it.

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not saying we shouldn’t be looking but I love how we toss the GFS at 80 hours yet are glued to it for a storm at 200hrs 

It's what we do.  We need data.  Gotta wait for an hour for the Euro

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's starting the move toward us further west. That's good

 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, It's gonna be a step back

I love and hate this place in equal measure.

[mitchnick]

Randy, did you mean it doesn't make it north?

[stormtracker]

Actually might not be too bad...not because the coast is better...just some WAA is better

[stormtracker]

Just now, mattie g said:

 

I love and hate this place in equal measure.

Well its +200 hours.  I'm not as conservative that range because the shit is gonna change.  May have called it too early

[Ji]

GFS looks way better....the ULL now is coming out more on the models

[mitchnick]

Looks good to me

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010300&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[SnowenOutThere]

Light snow hour 198

[stormtracker]

low trying off the SC coast...but def weaker than 18z.  We have some light stuff over us for a bit.   Same story...coastal gets going too far off the coast.  Trof is pos tilted 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well its +200 hours.  I'm not as conservative that range because the shit is gonna change.  May have called it too early

I know what you meant though, it is held back at h5 a bit further W, doesn't allow the trough to tilt as well. However, precip swath is better and oriented more favorably for us. 

[stormtracker]

1-2". So yeah, I was right

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

1-2". So yeah, I was right

Trough doesn't do much magic when its held back like that. If we would have gotten a better orientation with that QPF shield and where the SLP popped we would have had something really nice there. Euro AI kinda did that. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

1-2". So yeah, I was right

More up here. 

[mitchnick]

We need that northern stream to come down and pull it up.

[mitchnick]

Nice cold reload too.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2025010300&fh=219&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well its +200 hours.  I'm not as conservative that range because the shit is gonna change.  May have called it too early

It’s going to change every run and we’ll be going through the highs and lows for the next 9-10 days with this thing.

We’ll get blasted one run about four days out and then it’ll rain on us the next, which will end with us reaching for Jim Jones’s happy juice. You know it. I know it. We all know it.

 

[stormtracker]

Lol, Euro gonna push that S/W to Hawaii

[stormtracker]

Hmmm

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmmm

Go on...

[stormtracker]

Better, but not there

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Better, but not there

We have plenty of time. First let’s get through the foot we’re getting on Monday. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Better, but not there

still leaving that POS ULL out West

 

[Ji]

Remember, i like digital snow more than real snow so ive already moved on. 6z AI @Heisy

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET

Was about to say the same--yo Randy you slackin' brother!

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET

Njada'd

Just ready to post.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010312&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[WxUSAF]

GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.  

[Chris78]

Nice 2 to 4" advisory level snow next weekend.