January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wow! Euro is like Merry Whiffness with several systems next week. 

 

lol

[psuhoffman]

The long range (day 10+) continues to become less hostile looking as it gets closer.  If you go back to around New Years we were now supposed to be entering into the "crap" pattern by now...and now its way out at day 13-15 and doesn't even look that bad anymore.  

Again, the guidance continues to push back and shift in the central pacific and have the pacific jet undercutting any ridging there...and so long as that keeps happening we should maintain at least a workable pattern given the amount of cold established.  So long as we don't enter a truly hostile pattern that wipes out that cold we will be ok as long as we avoid one of those god awful NOT THAT long wave looks and I don't see that coming.  

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Aside from Sunday, rooting no storms this week until after next Saturday at 6pm. Thanks! Sorry not sorry. Pains me to root for nada for everyone until then, but it’s sort of like me rooting for a Commanders win (as a Cowboys fan). F the Lions. But anyway. Not sure what my point is except that I’m pre-gaming my flight at BWI currently, and I don’t want to miss the big dog! Oddly enough, I’m drinking Flying Dog Truth. And thats the truth! See what I did there?

I hope you'll turn on the TV and see the entire DMV with cars in ditches, airports closed, streets looking like a war torn third world nation, recitals and schools canceled, snowplows getting stuck as the area is getting destroyed with 2-3" per hour snow bands with lightning and thunder as temps are 12 degrees. and then it happens again 2 days later right before you come back.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Pig ridge

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope you'll turn on the TV and see the entire DMV with cars in ditches, airports closed, streets looking like a war torn third world nation, recitals and schools canceled, snowplows getting stuck as the area is getting destroyed with 2-3" per hour snow bands with lightning and thunder as temps are 12 degrees. and then it happens again 2 days later right before you come back.

And then happens again when his flight tries to get back and shuts down the airports for 2 days.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro has 7 degrees in DC for 1pm Wed.  That would be absurd.

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope you'll turn on the TV and see the entire DMV with cars in ditches, airports closed, streets looking like a war torn third world nation, recitals and schools canceled, snowplows getting stuck as the area is getting destroyed with 2-3" per hour snow bands with lightning and thunder as temps are 12 degrees. and then it happens again 2 days later right before you come back.

You bastard! I hate (I mean l love) this place. 

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

And then happens again when his flight tries to get back and shuts down the airports for 2 days.  

I mean I’ll be stuck in Orlando as a worst case scenario. Guess I’ll miss another BECS waiting in line again for its a small world. Just like February 2010. Seriously. That sucked missing that. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope you'll turn on the TV and see the entire DMV with cars in ditches, airports closed, streets looking like a war torn third world nation, recitals and schools canceled, snowplows getting stuck as the area is getting destroyed with 2-3" per hour snow bands with lightning and thunder as temps are 12 degrees. and then it happens again 2 days later right before you come back.

So...basically, normal rush hour!

[Fozz]

Just now, Scraff said:

I mean I’ll be stuck in Orlando as a worst case scenario. Guess I’ll miss another BECS waiting in line again for its a small world. Just like February 2010. Seriously. That sucked missing that. 

You missed both the big ones in Feb 2010?

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I mean I’ll be stuck in Orlando as a worst case scenario. Guess I’ll miss another BECS waiting in line again for its a small world. Just like February 2010. Seriously. That sucked missing that. 

I hear it's your favorite song. 

[mitchnick]

AI has 2 systems that hit us on 28th and 30th. Can't check temps right now but at least part of 1 or both likely snow...I think.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI has 2 systems that hit us on 28th and 30th. Can't check temps right now but at least part of 1 or both likely snow...I think.

The first is all snow from DC NW, 2-4" type deal. (Actually its all snow probably from about 20 miles south of DC north)  The second bigger storm unfortanatly is mostly rain (or ice) after maybe some snow in MD at the start due to a late secondary and the primary getting too far NW initially.  You have to get pretty far north in PA (like north of i80) to stay snow during the meat of the storm with that one)

 

But both are at a range where those details don't matter...its fun times coming for sure.  

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI has 2 systems that hit us on 28th and 30th. Can't check temps right now but at least part of 1 or both likely snow...I think.

I think first is snow/frozen. 2nd is a monster that pulls up a lot of warmth so may Starr frozen. Tons of qpf on 2.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think first is snow/frozen. 2nd is a monster that pulls up a lot of warmth so may Starr frozen. Tons of qpf on 2.

Did you see the AIFS has an ensemble now lol 

[wasnow215]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1880316868277465119
 

Eric Webb

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you see the AIFS has an ensemble now lol 

N̈oooooooooooooooo....

[Heisy]

Think the NAM will come around this run. Better shortwave in the plains


.

[Shad]

Anybody got the AIFS 24 hour precip output for next Thurs.....was curious how it compared to 6z

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Think the NAM will come around this run. Better shortwave in the plains


.

Wrong thread Heisy 

[NorthArlington101]

pretty clear signal for wave 1, 2, and even kinda 3... not that anything looks uber impressive.

 

[rjvanals]

GFS gets snow close to DC on Wed

[stormtracker]

GFS, same miss for 2.  Looks like a mess in the west, kinda different H5..we'll see for Storm 3

[stormtracker]

GFS got so much shit flying around a not a damn thing to show for it.   Like, you like at the H5 and you're like yeah...something's gonna pop.  Like seriously. 150hr.  And dry af.  It's a tragic mess verbatim

[stormtracker]

The GFS is infuriating 

[CAPE]

Even with the baroclinic boundary suppressed for midweek way down along the Gulf and SE coast with developing low pressure tracking off NC and then likely offshore from there, as advertised there is a strong jet streak that moves over the MA with some NS vorticity at h5. Decent mid level moisture advection combined with lift underneath the right rear quadrant of that jet streak could produce an area of light to moderate snow that is pretty far removed from the actual SE low. That seems to be what the GFS is depicting for places along/SE of I-95. Ofc I am a bit drunk and high so I could be wrong.

[Scraff]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

You missed both the big ones in Feb 2010?

Just landed FL. And sadly missed the entire week of fun. All good though. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Even with the baroclinic boundary suppressed for midweek way down along the Gulf and SE coast with developing low pressure tracking off NC and then likely offshore from there, as advertised there is a strong jet streak that moves over the MA with some NS vorticity at h5. Decent mid level moisture advection combined with lift underneath the right rear quadrant of that jet streak could produce an area of light to moderate snow that is pretty far removed from the actual SE low. That seems to be what the GFS is depicting for places along/SE of I-95. Ofc I am a bit drunk and high so I could be wrong.

You're not wrong.  You are definitely drunk and high.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You're not wrong.  You are definitely drunk and high.

Oh I am, but I also think I'm right about how it could snow up this way with a suppressed coastal low. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Oh I am, but I also think I'm right about how it could snow up this way with a suppressed low. 

I'm 2 drinks in.  About to move to Rye.  And then spark up with the bf.  I'm a light weight, so I usually wait until close to bedtime.  One puff and disaster for me.  So I might wait.  I can out drink him, but he wins with the weed.