January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is just beating down the SE ridge

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The 12-18 is mostly from that day 13 storm though, right? I know sometimes it's delayed, not denied and I'll readily admit it's felt like deep winter with snow on the ground for almost two weeks and almost a wall-to-wall cold so far, but if the Euro is right about the next week, which is a big if, we would be heading into late January basically sitting at climo for most or maybe just ahead for most. You might even possibly be behind climo. Sure, we thought this winter was going to be a disaster going in, but given the cold and the blocking we've had, I think seeing the next major threat being kicked down the road 13 days, IF the Euro is right, is a bit underwhelming.

 

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Relative to the other models, it's ugly.   I'm not counting Willy Wonka time frames.    Comparing to others regarding our two chances.  

Normally I would agree, in a more stable pattern with a well defined threat.  But all these waves are low probability until they get inside 100 hours...so everything in the range next week we've been looking at is jumping all over the place run to run.  Absent blocking we are relying on lots of moving parts without any guardrails to keep then consistent run to run, for these types of waves to work out.  

Given that...I am simply happy to see runs that extend our window indefinitely into the future.  I am not confident that any one specific threat ends up hitting...although the Sunday thing is starting to get "real".  But I am confident that if we extend this pattern for a long period of time...and get multiple shots at these waves...we will eventually get a flush hit.  

What made 2015 and 2014 work out was partially just that those patterns set in for such a LONG time...giving us multiple chances.  If we get enough chances one will work out.  So I am ok simply with the fact guidance keeps pushing back the flip to a shut the blinds look...which I am skeptical ever happens...and extends our window of opportunity giving us more chances to get lucky.  And I am not tossing either wave next week yet either...just saying I am happy we have even more chances after that also.  It's a numbers game.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is just beating down the SE ridge

The seasonal trend seems to have shown itself.  

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The 12-18 is mostly from that day 13 storm though, right? I know sometimes it's delayed, not denied and I'll readily admit it's felt like deep winter with snow on the ground for almost two weeks and almost a wall-to-wall cold so far, but if the Euro is right about the next week, which is a big if, we would be heading into late January basically sitting at climo for most or maybe just ahead for most. You might even possibly be behind climo. Sure, we thought this winter was going to be a disaster going in, but given the cold and the blocking we've had, I think seeing the next major threat being kicked down the road 13 days, IF the Euro is right, is a bit underwhelming.

I think I've already hit climo down here, despite the dire forecasts from Mets everywhere this winter has been one of the best in the past 10yrs and it's far from over.  Another reminder that nobody knows anything on these long range seasonal forecasts.  

I half expect the climate change narrative to go in full reverse once the PDO finally flips.   The pain trade on warming is so piled in on that side at this point that it reminds me of the housing bubble.  Temp can only go UP!!!!  Buy before it's too late!

 

[winter_warlock]

36 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Point here is a cold and stormy period is on the table starting Sunday.  Details TBD.... lot better than last few years!!!!  At least we are in the game!

 True. It is nice to see the prolonged cold. For  weeks to come!!!

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I think I've already hit climo down here, despite the dire forecasts from Mets everywhere this winter has been one of the best in the past 10yrs and it's far from over.  Another reminder that nobody knows anything on these long range seasonal forecasts.  

I half expect the climate change narrative to go in full reverse once the PDO finally flips.   The pain trade on warming is so piled in on that side at this point that it reminds me of the housing bubble.  Temp can only go UP!!!!  Buy before it's too late!

 

Southern MD has probably done best so far in regards to climo, and really even though it hasn't been great since the 2016 blizzard, has done much better than the Baltimore area in comparison. I'm guessing I have somewhere around 10 inches on the season, which is probably right on pace for climo in my location, maybe a little ahead if you consider March has lately been much more of a winter month and December has been much more of a fall month. But in general, the Baltimore area has continued to really struggle even in comparison to DC and Southern MD since 2016. I was at least fortunate enough to get around 8 inches with the last one while those just north of me got far less.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think I've already hit climo down here, despite the dire forecasts from Mets everywhere this winter has been one of the best in the past 10yrs and it's far from over.  Another reminder that nobody knows anything on these long range seasonal forecasts.  

I half expect the climate change narrative to go in full reverse once the PDO finally flips.   The pain trade on warming is so piled in on that side at this point that it reminds me of the housing bubble.  Temp can only go UP!!!!  Buy before it's too late!

 

Let's slow down... the planet is still warm right now on the whole...its just the coldest anomalies in the entire northern hemisphere are over the United States this winter so far.  That has been true the last few years even...there were still some pockets of cold...just outnumbered by warm and nowhere near us due to the longwave pattern also being hostile to get whatever cold there is into our area.  

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The seasonal trend seems to have shown itself.  

that pattern really reminds me of Feb 2014

[psuhoffman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

that pattern really reminds me of Feb 2014

I agree, brought up that as a possible analog a little while back.  Of course results differ because luck has a lot to do with the details and all we care about is the snow that ends up in our yard.  

[mappy]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that pattern really reminds me of Feb 2014

That was a great month IMBY, other than the early Feb ice storm that ruined a bunch of my trees. But the mid-month storm was fantastic with 21". 

[WEATHER53]

Anybody have the projected highs and lows for DCA snd BWI during the 2-3 day very cold intrusion ?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

That was a great month IMBY, other than the early Feb ice storm that ruined a bunch of my trees. But the mid-month storm was fantastic with 21". 

It certainly was!  Of course that whole winter 2013-14 was about as wall-to-wall as one can get around here.  I don't recall the early Feb. 2014 ice event, maybe it was more in the northern part of MD where you're at.  But yeah, that mid-month (around Valentine's Day) storm was great!  I recall doing a Jebwalk taking pictures around 1AM, and it was just puking snow!  That March was likewise incredible...a moderate event early in the month, the St. Patrick's Day storm, another small event on March 25 (my birthday!), and then even an inch right at the end of the month.

[brooklynwx99]

38 minutes ago, mappy said:

That was a great month IMBY, other than the early Feb ice storm that ruined a bunch of my trees. But the mid-month storm was fantastic with 21". 

yeah same up here. I think it's pretty much impossible to expect something that good down into the DC area, but it is analogous! the punting of Feb earlier this year doesn't seem to have a leg to stand on... there should be continued chances

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The seasonal trend seems to have shown itself.  

this is the equivalent of a warm weenie that keeps seeing warmth 10 days out and it keeps getting pushed back 

[Steve25]

24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Anybody have the projected highs and lows for DCA snd BWI during the 2-3 day very cold intrusion ?

The overall look is that we drop to around 20 degrees as the sun rises Monday morning, really don't rise at all during the day Monday. Then mid-teens for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the single digits. 

Likely at least 72 consecutive hours under 20 degrees. 

[WEATHER53]

39 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

The overall look is that we drop to around 20 degrees as the sun rises Monday morning, really don't rise at all during the day Monday. Then mid-teens for highs both Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the single digits. 

Likely at least 72 consecutive hours under 20 degrees. 

If that happens I think that would be top 5 coldest snaps since 1990

2018 I think and some I don’t have notes about right now, Feb 2007 I think snd then epic 1994 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It certainly was!  Of course that whole winter 2013-14 was about as wall-to-wall as one can get around here.  I don't recall the early Feb. 2014 ice event, maybe it was more in the northern part of MD where you're at.  But yeah, that mid-month (around Valentine's Day) storm was great!  I recall doing a Jebwalk taking pictures around 1AM, and it was just puking snow!  That March was likewise incredible...a moderate event early in the month, the St. Patrick's Day storm, another small event on March 25 (my birthday!), and then even an inch right at the end of the month.

It was my first winter in Parkton haha, got 70” that winter. Snowed every month from November to April I think lol

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

It was my first winter in Parkton haha, got 70” that winter. Snowed every month from November to April I think lol

Sick winter, just scored on the borderline events. I wasn’t in Carroll Valley at the time, but talking to some neighbors I believe they got between 90 and 100” that winter. Checks out as PSU had over 90 

[yoda]

18z ICON was going to be even more suppressed lol.  

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Sick winter, just scored on the borderline events. I wasn’t in Carroll Valley at the time, but talking to some neighbors I believe they got between 90 and 100” that winter. Checks out as PSU had over 90 

Yes, over 90 inches here in 2014. I believe I recorded 18 or more individual month from December through March. Incredible year. 

2010 is the record. 102 inches but I need to go back and double check that.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Yes, over 90 inches here in 2014. I believe I recorded 18 or more individual month from December through March. Incredible year. 

2010 is the record. 102 inches but I need to go back and double check that.

I wish I had been further north for 09/10 winter. Can only imagine how awesome it was up here haha. But 13/14 was pretty damn great. Of course it set the bar high for my new location 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

I wish I had been further north for 09/10 winter. Can only imagine how awesome it was up here haha. But 13/14 was pretty damn great. Of course it set the bar high for my new location 

Next storm we get like that that hits y'all harder like that we call the @North Balti Zen"About dang time" storm 

[stormtracker]

GFS slightly different out west...has that tail vort swinging more wester.  don't know how this affects anything tho.  sfc seems about the same

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z ICON was going to be even more suppressed lol.  

Ehhh I'm starting to think we oughta give up on that wave and see if anything can develop afterward.

[stormtracker]

The 2nd wave is a bunch of nothing on the GFS...everything smooshed south (although organized precip did come north up to and along the Gulf coast where none was there before).  Let's see if it's up to shenanigans for Friday

[stormtracker]

Might wanna pay attention to this run based on what I'm seeing so far 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Might wanna pay attention to this run based on what I'm seeing so far 

Will folks want to pay attention?

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

Will folks want to pay attention?

I definitely can't call it that at all right now.  It's just interesting, nothing more

[stormtracker]

Based on what I'm seeing, it's gonna try to cut something I *think* and we'll have to rely on CAD

[stormtracker]

If we can just hold on to the cold....