January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand.   Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south.  Snow to Ice to Snow

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just comical differences in H5.  This fucking model man

Yeah there's some odd stuff going on.  If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before.  So yeah, a low over the Lakes area.  But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hear me out, and this may sound crazy.   I don't think my mom in NE South Carolina is going to get 24"

I think its 86" looking at QPF maps

[WxUSAF]

I see like 1-3/2-4” on TT but whatevs. It’ll be gone tonight.

eta…snowing with temps in the single digits!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand.   Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south

Ice and 25 degrees at one point?  Then briefly goes above freezing it appears.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah there's some odd stuff going on.  If you look at the upper midwest, the 12Z GFS now has this (small) closed 528 contour over MN at 500-mb, which I don't think was there or like that before.  So yeah, a low over the Lakes area.  But oddly, it looks (at least initially) still cold even southeast of that surface low.

CAD holds and it's all frozen, but ICE is in there too.   It's timing is just off from the other guidance.

[Terpeast]

CMC a little closer to us with the second storm, but different time frame than the GFS. Still all over the place, best to lean on ensemble trends for now.

[NorthArlington101]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CAD holds and it's all frozen, but ICE is in there too.   It's timing is just off from the other guidance.

It's a complicated development for sure.  Almost looks like a northern stream system that pops a sort of coastal while the "primary" near the Lakes hangs on for a bit.  Here's that closed low at 500 that I mentioned earlier (not sure why I can't copy/paste from TT, had to save the image and insert...but whatever):

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can v 0Z

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is close for late week, but def not the Miller A it hand.   Some temp issues DC S and E...but freezing line way south.  Snow to Ice to Snow

Gfs reminds me of Feb/Mar 2015. West track but coooold in front. Maybe we get our second 6+" storm all snow below freezing start to finish with HP closer to Bermuda than Maine lol. I was thinking when this pattern was showing long range that the CAD acronym will start becoming common on the board. It's not a pretty nor classic way to snow but my picky days are long gone 

Eta: not saying a mixed CAD solution is the most likely. Just that if it happens it will produce anyway 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gfs reminds me of Feb/Mar 2015. West track but coooold in front. Maybe we get our second 6+" storm all snow below freezing start to finish with HP closer to Bermuda than Maine lol. I was thinking this pattern was showing long range that the CAD acronym will start becoming common on the board. It's not a pretty nor classic way to snow but my picky days are long gone 

I want the CMC to keep moving N and West

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s important for sure, but how the northern stream and TPV play is equally critical. Tendency, as we’ve seen, is for the northern stream to suppress this far south. Need the TPV to move out of the way AND some northern energy to phase into the west side to pull it back north. Otherwise it’s just congrats Charleston.

Toggling between, it all seems related.  Less press out front, more energy comes out.  A delicate balance for sure.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Ah yes the ol' 2-footer in Jacksonville NC, though apparently it has happened

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

[osfan24]

Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer.

[WVclimo]

GFS with another arctic air mass after the late week storm.

[Steve25]

Has anyone mentioned that the CMC has Baltimore at NEGATIVE 12 degrees next Thursday morning LOL

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like the night of March 1, 1980 ACC Basketball championship  Elizabeth City got 20" and BWI 5". DCA a little better than BWI. 

Terps lost to NC. lol

[brooklynwx99]

the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point

[WVclimo]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like the night of March 1, 1980 ACC Basketball championship  Elizabeth City got 20" and BWI 5". DCA a little better than BWI. 

Terms lost to NC. lol

It was also in the mid-teens while it was snowing.

And it was Duke taking the ACC championship 73-72 after a tip-in by Mike Gminski with 9 seconds left.  And then the worst no-call I ever saw when Buck Williams was completely taken out trying to rebound Albert King’s last shot.

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer.

Snow geese are getting fed this winter 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point

at this point I can make a wheel for snow totals and it might be more accurate than the models.

[LongRanger]

remember that Mar 1 1980 storm well since I was an on-air Baltimore weather guy at the time, still have my forecast notes on paper in a box somewhere

[Heisy]

the 22-24th period is a modeling disaster. best to not tie yourself down to any particular solution and let things settle themselves. both the GFS and CMC are equally viable at this point

Yeah it’s pretty insane how each model varies after Sunday


.

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer.

Oh, we can all imagine.

[bncho]

29 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Imagine if we hit flush on Sunday and then we get this thing to gives a MECS or HECS plus into the deep freezer.

Wanna post your profile picture as your snowfall forecast?

[LeesburgWx]

53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Would NC recover?

[stormtracker]

so far Euro is vastly different out west at H5

[stormtracker]

So Euro has some moisture gathering down near Houston whereas 6z had nothing.

[stormtracker]

Looks like a disappointing run coming up.  Euro has been blah with the 1st and 2nd events.   Looks nothing like the CMC at H5

I mean, it trended "better" relative to 6z...so there's that