January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[H2O]

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5.  Deal? 

I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10

[Ji]

If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5.  Deal? 

Where is the storm 1000 miles wide gonna go lol?

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10

He didn't mention it had to hit us.  He just said a storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

He didn't mention it had to hit us.  He just said a storm

Yup, that's a sucker bet

[mitchnick]

Call me a , but I  think it's important for Sunday's system to hit as consensus is now showing.  Bob Chill calls them train tracks while I call it seasonal pattern, the point is that there are areas favored in every season. The MA generally was the bullseye last Monday and would at least do as well as any other area with Sunday's current consensus. We couldn't ask for more if we are looking for a seasonal pattern imho. Obviously, no guarantees and there could be different areas in the MA favored over others with each storm. But in short, it's a good sign for future threats despite model runs.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5.  Deal? 

Better get your 5 bucks ready lol

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Call me a , but I  think it's important for Sunday's system to hit as consensus is now showing.  Bob Chill calls them train tracks while I call it seasonal pattern, the point is that there are areas favored in every season. The MA generally was the bullseye last Monday and would at least do as well as any other area with Sunday's current consensus. We couldn't ask for more if we are looking for a seasonal pattern imho. Obviously, no guarantees and there could be different areas in the MA favored over others with each storm. But in short, it's a good sign for future threats despite model runs.

Appreciate you dropping model snapshot analysis. I really don't have a lot of free time until late in the day and by then.... buddy I'm tired lol

Train tracks in my brain are either seasonal door to door or these weird "hot streaks" that oddly repeat even when mid/long range models never really shows it but short term we're "Again?!" (For better or worse lol).

2013-14 was a year of seasonal train tracks in a good way and some more recent winters have been the same but in a VERY bad NOT good kinda way lol. 

2014-15 is the starkest example I can think of where it was chapters of tracks in the seasonal book. Jan 2015 was probably the most nerve grating month I've been thru. It was the birth of the "Scumstonian River" lololol... lookin at you Jebman! Hahaha. But when the tracks FINALLY shifted it was game fookin on. 

So far this year feels more seasonal than chapters. A bit muddy because the hemispheric pattern is quite different than the last month but the end result is still pretty good.  I was getting the seasonal feel during Dec but Dec is curveball city. Now we can kinda see into Feb and the MA is solidly in the game. How long it holds is anyone's guess at this point but there has been zero tendency for things to become all ridgy or rainy. Steady as she goes....

[BristowWx]

55 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

No it can't. It's within 300 hours.

Fair enough.  Under 300 lock MA rule 33-4 section 8

[Shad]

what did the 06z euro look like for Sunday?

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Where is the storm 1000 miles wide gonna go lol?

Have you been paying attention?  This storm has been anywhere from Bermuda, up the coast, or not even there.  I mean if it’s a classic Miller A as shown, then u win the bet. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

I want in on this. If it’s there for 12, 18, 0z I will never mention the best Superman movie ever again to troll you. If not I want $10

Reverse that bet and u got a deal. 

[stormtracker]

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

He didn't mention it had to hit us.  He just said a storm

 

55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yup, that's a sucker bet

 

36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Better get your 5 bucks ready lol

I clarified.  Has to be as shown on 6z   
 

But anyway, this is fun but it doesn’t matter   We all know how this goes   I hate that the GFS keeps getting later and into the weekend   I’m supposed to go to Columbus, OH (on purpose) to see my fav composer on Friday night   But that’s def cancellable  

 

 

[Heisy]

6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct.





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[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct.





.

Ridge rolls over and traps the sw energy 

[Heisy]

Ridge rolls over and traps the sw energy 

Plausible scenario, 6z gfs almost did that before it was able to escape. I’ll worry about it later, hoping we can cash in 3-6 on Sunday


.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z euro Ai buries the energy out west. Lot of shortwaves have been doing that this year so could be correct.





.

I still don't think the AI can be trusted any more than the EPS past 5 days. With more attention to it, we may have a better idea in the coming weeks.

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I still don't think the AI can be trusted any more than the EPS past 5 days. With more attention to it, we may have a better idea in the coming weeks.

The AI took a bit of the wind out of my sails this morning. Lets hope it locks in to another event before months end 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The AI took a bit of the wind out of my sails this morning. Lets hope it locks in to another event before months end 

I think like any other guidance the AI is especially notable when it locks in and doesn't make a change run-after-run. It's pretty stupendous that it hasn't changed for the Sunday system, but not giving it a ton of credence too far beyond that if it bounces around like other models.

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Have you been paying attention?  This storm has been anywhere from Bermuda, up the coast, or not even there.  I mean if it’s a classic Miller A as shown, then u win the bet. 

send me your venmo anyway.....i want want to send you some royalties for Dr no

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

 

I clarified.  Has to be as shown on 6z   
 

But anyway, this is fun but it doesn’t matter   We all know how this goes   I hate that the GFS keeps getting later and into the weekend   I’m supposed to go to Columbus, OH (on purpose) to see my fav composer on Friday night   But that’s def cancellable  

 

 

If you're talking about Beethoven, then awesome  Which work are you going to see?

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

send me your venmo anyway.....i want want to send you some royalties for Dr no

Now we talking 

[mattie g]

Just bringing this over here so I have my bases covered:

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm liking the idea of 3-6" of cold smoke, but I'm convinced that if we max on Sunday then the midweek thing is toast due to wave spacing or energy being left behind or vorts squashing or someshit that I know nothing about.

 

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Now we talking 

there are 80,000 people that just know the euro as dr no now lol

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just bringing this over here so I have my bases covered:

 

Always take the sure thing. Generally speaking, though... Sunday isn't yet a sure thing even at this range lol

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ridge rolls over and traps the sw energy 

Well, if the AI model was programmed with Euro data which has had a history of burying energy in the SW, weenie speculation says the AI model may erroneously tend toward that bias too.

I'll weenie myself to save others the trouble. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Always take the sure thing. Generally speaking, though... Sunday isn't yet a sure thing even at this range lol

Oh...no doubt! But the midweek window has a TON of upside and I kinda want in on that. lol

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

there are 80,000 people that just know the euro as dr no now lol

Exactly.  If all 80,000 just gave $5 royalty fee, I'd recuperate half the money I bet on our team for Saturday.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Oh...no doubt! But the midweek window has a TON of upside and I kinda want in on that. lol

For some reason I'm all aboard that train and sour on the Sunday thing.   I want to believe, but the flucuations on an event just 3 days ago has me doubtful. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Well, if the AI model was programmed with Euro data which has had a history of burying energy in the SW, weenie speculation says the AI model may erroneously tend toward that bias too.

I'll weenie myself to save others the trouble. 

In theory, it should learn that if the Euro was overdoing the burying of energy in the Southwest then the next panels shouldn't leave that energy behind.

It'll be super interesting to see what ultimately plays out given how steady the Euro AI has been.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For some reason I'm all aboard that train and sour on the Sunday thing.   I want to believe, but the flucuations on an event just 3 days ago has me doubtful. 

I don't want to pass on 3-6" if we can get it because it seems to me that the midweek thing is even more up in the air, but it would be hard to watch if North Carolina gets blasted next week while we smoke cirrus at 5F.