mattie g Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC looks like it wants to hammer us… but not confident enough to 100% call it. It’s been steady with the Sunday event the last couple days and I’m of the opinion that what happens with the second wave will be a direct result of what happens with the first. Makes sense if the CMC hits us next week given what it’s got for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM CMC Straight out to sea---no climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC looks like it wants to hammer us… but not confident enough to 100% call it. hammered us with partly sunny skies. the 500mb vort got stretched like a rope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS is later week and it looks like it may amplify too early. Lets see Ice to rain. Rough night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:27 AM GFS is looking warm. No good anchored cold. Cold will get eroded. This is not a good look to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:28 AM it may have something later in the week(CMC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 04:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:29 AM Just now, Ji said: it may have something later in the week(CMC) Reloading the second Deep South storm in a week. Shades of 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 04:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:29 AM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Ice to rain. Rough night rough night for us or the model? we have no idea whats going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM Just now, Ji said: rough night for us or the model? we have no idea whats going to happen Rough night for the digital blue enjoyers. Least the CMC likes you enough for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 04:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:37 AM If you check the h5 maps and compare with previous runs, it’ll be obvious how chaotic all the pieces are up there especially on the gfs. Plus that ice to rain scenario had little or no ensemble support on 18z, and I think 0z gefs won’t show much support either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:51 AM 4 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: This right here had me bust out laughing in front of my wife. Wtf kind of output is this BS? January 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Thursday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:58 AM 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: January 1994 The one day it was 11 at 11am then flurries with temps falling to 1 at 5pm and -1 at 7om with record tying for me -6 overnight low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Thursday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:59 AM Every model handling the pattern completely differently. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM EURO says no on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM EURO says no on Wednesday. Euro having an awful night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 AM the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 05:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:52 AM the difference between the CMC and ECMWF is quite small. really difficult forecastNever mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 06:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:36 AM EPS is actually pretty damn solid for the 22nd. lots of hits with the trough swinging a bit more 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Thursday at 10:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:31 AM Gfs has a massive miller A. Can that possibly disappear in future runs ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Thursday at 11:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:04 AM 32 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has a massive miller A. Can that possibly disappear in future runs ? Yes ..yes it can. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Thursday at 11:22 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:22 AM 6z gfs starting next Thursday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Thursday at 11:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:26 AM In the long range, gfs and euro op are now a bit closer wrt keeping that SER at bay. Euro showing a more pronounced cold push, but no extended AN temps on either op run right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 11:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:38 AM Nasty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Thursday at 11:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:39 AM 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: In the long range, gfs and euro op are now a bit closer wrt keeping that SER at bay. Euro showing a more pronounced cold push, but no extended AN temps on either op run right now. I think so long as the pac jet continues to undercut the wpo epo ridge we will be ok. That puts pressure on the pac ridge to be poleward and for the cold to press east and not dig into the southwest. this has been a seasonal constant and is related to the pdo flipping phases on us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nasty Seems like all guidance now keying in on Tue morning being the coldest of the season so far with below 0 WCs. Some schools in the area are off tue for semester break, but for those that are open, I could see delayed starts. That’s how we roll nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 11:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:55 AM 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think so long as the pac jet continues to undercut the wpo epo ridge we will be ok. That puts pressure on the pac ridge to be poleward and for the cold to press east and not dig into the southwest. this has been a seasonal constant and is related to the pdo flipping phases on us. We have so much leeway when the PDO isn't -3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 12:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:12 PM 1 hour ago, Ji said: Gfs has a massive miller A. Can that possibly disappear in future runs ? If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Thursday at 12:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:30 PM 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted Thursday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:40 PM 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Yes ..yes it can. No it can't. It's within 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 12:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:41 PM 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it’s there at 12z, I’ll make you a moderator for 12 hours. If it’s not, you send me $5. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now