January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Euro at 144

 

Good to finally have this nailed down.

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Do you have the vort or 500mb maps? Can’t quite tell from the surface map if that’s going out to sea or gonna climb the coast 

Not like it matters because I’m sure next run will be totally different but here ya go 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not like it matters because I’m sure next run will be totally different but here ya go 

That’s significantly more promising than 12z. That vort over Missouri was in Ohio at 12z. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up

That's a great look that would roll forward into a pretty decent potential. We've seen this before....roll that forward 5-7 days. 

[Heisy]

That’s significantly more promising than 12z. That vort over Missouri was in Ohio at 12z. 

It’s odd it’s actually not the same time frame we’ve been tracking for round 2


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[TSSN+]

Significant shift north on eps

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s odd it’s actually not the same time frame we’ve been tracking for round 2


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It’s unlikely the timing and amplitude if all the waves gets resolved at range. To noisy. 

[Steve25]

One thing the GFS and Euro agree on is that the high temp around Baltimore on Tuesday will be 12/13 degrees, and that we drop below 20 Monday morning and don't climb back to 20 until Thursday. 

[stormtracker]

47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good to finally have this nailed down.

 

Roulette wheel continues. See you at 0z 

[ChillinIt]

Well the usually off the coast NAVGEM just moved way NW for Sunday eve...

 

[LeesburgWx]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

That is some straight up BS right there WTF

This right here had me bust out laughing in front of my wife. Wtf kind of output is this BS?

[Solution Man]

16 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This right here had me bust out laughing in front of my wife. Wtf kind of output is this BS?

Funny I said the same thing 

[Heisy]

Significant shift north on eps
 

So, if you go back to older runs the second potential event we were tracking is at 180 hrs+. That 18z euro changed things up dramatically with strengthening that wave. I mean maybe that happens. I was more inclined to hope for more energy to be dumped out west and have the N stream come down and phase with it. I’m not in love with the spacing with that shortwave at 144 hours, but who knows?!

Like Psu said this pattern may be tough for models to gauge.


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[mitchnick]

18z AI lost ALL qpf other than Sunday, which was a little lighter.

Artificial intelligence my arse!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501160000

[psuhoffman]

I’m going to sleep, I want to see at least 200 new posts when I wake up. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol couldn't have seen this coming

[Heisy]

18z AI lost ALL qpf other than Sunday, which was a little lighter.
Artificial intelligence my arse!
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501160000

The change was the wave dropping down from the northern steam, it got stuck out west. Seems a lot of waves keep doing that lately lol…

Going to bed myself too, i want 500 posts


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[IronTy]

Just listened to JB and he had it all for today's missive.  2-4", locally 3-6" this weekend....JFK...Reagan...the 1899 storm...some 1840s inauguration reference...I lost track after that. 

[pazzo83]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m going to sleep, I want to see at least 200 new posts when I wake up. 

lol my kids are still awake (they literally just went to bed)