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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Good morning Quick summary of what I see The first threat Sunday is actually simple, but the cause for divergence across guidance is that its delicate.  There is a vigorous SW over western A

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type

stormtracker
stormtracker

FOLKS....

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing.  It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro.  I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. 

It doesn’t mean this is a lock, guarentee, etc…but that’s a pretty good sign at lead that it might be on to something. Now, this pattern incoming is very complex, so it might not grasp the magnitude of what’s to come, but you want to see run-to-run consistency on the AI, that’s for sure. Hopefully it’s seeing something that the operational ECMWF can connect with as we move closer. We shall see. A good experiment for this pattern. I’ll be keeping tabs. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Don't worry.  Extended EPS like February.  Hard to believe it now goes into March...

IMG_4876.png

IMG_4878.png

The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The key to this is whether the scandinavian ridge connects with the aleutian ridge to drop the AO and keep the cold across the CONUS. Something to keep an eye on, because if this connection fails, we may see more SE ridging.

EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today.

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CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this really isn't warm. can see a cutter beating the gradient down for a colder system following up

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-8238400.thumb.png.09a07a99c5ddb07f9e153e697ebd536f.png

People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!!  There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles.

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