January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on.  At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade.  Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet.  

Yeah, the mean is now less then an inch. It’s hasn’t been as enthusiastic as the ops with this potential. Still a good amount of time left for changes either way 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WEATHER53 and btw I did escalate it once it started down that path, I admit and take responsibility for that.  I won't do it again.  

If I could step in and say from experience that it's just best not to respond to others you may not agree with historically. 

For example, there's a guy on this site who I won't even answer. He's nothing but trouble. I can't remember his screen name, but all I can say is that I  Hate'm. I mean I  really Hate'm and have stopped all contact.

Just a thought.

 

P.s. intended as a joke by the way

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it


.

 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the mean is now less then an inch. It’s hasn’t been as enthusiastic as the ops with this potential. Still a good amount of time left for changes either way 

It's not missing us NW or SE, it has the max stripe right across our area...its just super light and unimpressed.  There are a lot of members that have nothing really at all.  So the question is why?  Lets keep in mind they are based off the op euro which is generally the least impressed with the wave lately for some reason also...which I am a bit more worried about, but I think the lower resolution of the EPS members probably just makes it likely they struggle with something as discreet as this.  This is not really the type of thing they are designed for.  

 

The bigger question is why is the euro suddenly so unimpressed with the threat.  But the euro is not perfect either, and this is the type of little event where a difference in .15 qpf and a tiny bit of dynamics to get that little "death band" along the thermal boundary is the difference between a 1-2" nothing burger and a 3-6" nice surprise.  Any model, even the euro, can miss this type of thing.  Or the euro is correct and the UK/GGEM are overdoing the SW.  I don't know but if I had to lean one way or the other I think the euro is a bit under done.  

[AlexD1990]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At least you're not 13 anymore 

JK 

You're not wrong, I'm still quite obnoxious LOL. I just learned what many on here need to, which is read more and post less.

[AlexD1990]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Which does not address the statement 

What are you trying to imply, Howard? I get the feeling you think I'm someone else...

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. 

Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800

You forgot to mention the 3rd hit out at day 13-15 lol 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing.  It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro.  I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You forgot to mention the 3rd hit out at day 13-15 lol 

I had to give you something to do 

[Heisy]

Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing.  It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro.  I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. 

It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it


.

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it


.

One of the mets on here (MillvilleWx maybe?) said it was doing well up until Day 5, but not so well Days 6+

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I had to give you something to do 

I'm busy extrapolating the NAM 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

If I was in ATL or NC I’d be pretty stoked rn. That part has been pretty consistent in all the models. 

Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast?  Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea?  It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north?  Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general.  The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference.  (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast.  I thought it would be “erroneous” by now?  Or the model is completely out to lunch!)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it


.

I can't do this now but if you make a GIF on TT of the last 17 runs of Euro AI valid for 00z Monday the 20th, it's crazy consistent.

[Kevin Reilly]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on.  At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade.  Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet.  

It’s the discreet storms that we often look back and say hey that one was the beginning or ending to a great winter run!

[midatlanticweather]

Middle of the month. A lot of doom and gloom at times.. a lot of banter.. is it time for a new thread as this one is 134 pages deep? 

 

[dailylurker]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Middle of the month. A lot of doom and gloom at times.. a lot of banter.. is it time for a new thread as this one is 134 pages deep? 

 

And probably time to separate out the weekend thing and give it a thread. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

And probably time to separate out the weekend thing and give it a thread. 

I was starting to think that with multiple potential windows and that one nearing d4

[RDM]

Wonder if this has some bearing on the pending Artic invasion forecast for next week.  

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alaska-pummeled-hurricane-force-winds-124644551.html    

 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I was starting to think that with multiple potential windows and that one nearing d4

Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour

What do we name this one? Hmm thing was already used 

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast?  Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea?  It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north?  Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general.  The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference.  (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast.  I thought it would be “erroneous” by now?  Or the model is completely out to lunch!)

For me, it's kinda fun, this model roulette.   To me it means we'll always have equal chances up to when the models settle, which may not be until 72 our so hours like many here have been saying.   Normally we see the writing on the wall well before then.   

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour

I'm telling yall, we're gonna keep getting all sevens on each model every few runs.   The choice time is when they all settle on triple 7s...which we won't know probably until Friday for the Sunday thing and Sunday for the mid week thing.   Fun times, IMO.   Even better is watching most folks here swing like human pendulums run to run.  Oh what a time!

[ravensrule]

45 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If I could step in and say from experience that it's just best not to respond to others you may not agree with historically. 

For example, there's a guy on this site who I won't even answer. He's nothing but trouble. I can't remember his screen name, but all I can say is that I  Hate'm. I mean I  really Hate'm and have stopped all contact.

Just a thought.

 

P.s. intended as a joke by the way

Jihad is not a bad guy deep down. 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

What do we name this one? Hmm thing was already used 

@stormtrackernamed it: The Roulette Wheel Storm

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

So you now agree with me that the models DO NOT predict  weather but rather provide samples of a wide variety of possible outcomes. Then change that every 6 hours. I would also say the rest of them did not show “nothing” 

do you not understand how probabilisitic modeling works - like just from a foundational statistical perspective?

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. 

Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800

Excuse me if this was already covered in depth, but does this "AI" model use verification data as a training set for the model and offset the  prognosticated/ computed values at each forecast hour based on historical bias/ machine learning?

[psuhoffman]

We need to start the thread soon enough for us to be able to close it to bring the storm back if necessary 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, WeatherQ said:

Haven’t seen your name since NWS Philly on Arch Street back when I interned before the Mount Holly move when Chet and Dean were there!  Hello Sir 

Hi!  That's wayyyyyy back even before. my last move BOX got PHI in June 2010 (HOT summer there).  Hopefully it's a good life for all participants hereon. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m good with 2 new threads

[Warm Nose]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm telling yall, we're gonna keep getting all sevens on each model every few runs.   The choice time is when they all settle on triple 7s...which we won't know probably until Friday for the Sunday thing and Sunday for the mid week thing.   Fun times, IMO.   Even better is watching most folks here swing like human pendulums run to run.  Oh what a time!

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