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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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  On 1/15/2025 at 11:55 PM, TSSN+ said:
Significant shift north on eps
 
IMG_8979.png.d85398fb8ba75817a2d8dfeebd9b7665.png

So, if you go back to older runs the second potential event we were tracking is at 180 hrs+. That 18z euro changed things up dramatically with strengthening that wave. I mean maybe that happens. I was more inclined to hope for more energy to be dumped out west and have the N stream come down and phase with it. I’m not in love with the spacing with that shortwave at 144 hours, but who knows?!

Like Psu said this pattern may be tough for models to gauge.


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  On 1/16/2025 at 1:10 AM, mitchnick said:
18z AI lost ALL qpf other than Sunday, which was a little lighter.
Artificial intelligence my arse!
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501160000

The change was the wave dropping down from the northern steam, it got stuck out west. Seems a lot of waves keep doing that lately lol…

Going to bed myself too, i want 500 posts


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  On 1/16/2025 at 2:24 AM, IronTy said:

Just listened to JB and he had it all for today's missive.  2-4", locally 3-6" this weekend....JFK...Reagan...the 1899 storm...some 1840s inauguration reference...I lost track after that. 

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I'm willing to bet the 1840s inauguration reference was about Mr. "I don't believe in overcoats" President William Henry Harrison making that speech in a chilly rain and croaking a month later...

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  On 1/16/2025 at 3:18 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm willing to bet the 1840s inauguration reference was about Mr. "I don't believe in overcoats" President William Henry Harrison making that speech in a chilly rain and croaking a month later...

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It’s now thought it was actually the water supply getting contaminated by sewage and he died of a bacterial infection.

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