January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

If I was in ATL or NC I’d be pretty stoked rn. That part has been pretty consistent in all the models. 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Multiple screen names 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m getting better understanding now.  I kept a 60 page diary of set ups and outcomes .  I use that. I don’t use models for predictions of low pressure systems in the winter.  If I see a 1030 high on southern  Hudson Bay predicted 5-7 days out I know from experience that will mostly come true because it mostly has.  Not the same at all for storms.  I think we are doing better now by explaining things back and forth and not arguing and we often conclude the same things between us but via different methods. 
Thanks 

I agree this is more productive discourse.  Just so you know, honestly, I was just trying to make a light hearted joke yesterday and you went off.  I realize we have had tense exchanges in the past so I will admit that I probably should not have tried to joke around, but it was not meant to start a nuclear exchange.  Honest! 

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Multiple screen names 

Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days

[Heisy]

Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days

Off topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol


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[Warm Nose]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Some of them aren’t gonna make it. 

They'll be grasping at the Kuchera for RAP and the like

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Off topic, if you want some entertainment use the way back machine and you can read some posts from the old days lol


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I'd prefer to forget, lol I was 13 and obnoxious

[Heisy]

At 168 hours I really thought the OP euro was going to phase the left over S stream energy and the N stream and bring a storm up the coast, but the flow was a bit progressive i suppose.

The storm on the GFS was induced by the N stream diving down since there was no left over S energy. Long way to go to figure that one out.


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[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'd prefer to forget, lol I was 13 and obnoxious

At least you're not 13 anymore 

JK 

[Quasievil]

10 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days

OMG! Same! That goes WAAYYY back.

[mitchnick]

I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.

[Heisy]

I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.

The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry


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[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.

I bet back in 2014 and 2015 the spread would have been even worse...so bad actually that we had no clue there was even this kind of potential at these ranges... none of our snow those years was really clear on guidance past about 72 hours.  These types of patterns are not good for long lead tracking.  The issue I think now is the guidance is better so we actually do have some idea what the period will look like and the threats...so now its frustrating that these waves move around every run and model to model...because we want some clarity.  10 years ago we would have no idea at all what was coming and what the specific threats were so we didn't get bothered by the crazy swings at 100+ hours.  

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm numb. Don't recall seeing such a spread, both Sunday and next week.

AI Euro has been solid as a rock for Sunday. Kind of riding that as my expectation - it's an outcome which would make everyone happy.

[WhiteoutMD]

5 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

OMG! Same! That goes WAAYYY back.

same the good old days maybe

[psuhoffman]

To put this in perspective, I remember one of the events in early Feb 2014 I was up in Pine Gove PA that year...but still participating in this forum, and at about 72 hours out you were all rooting for a north trend on a wave that was supposed to be suppressed south of you...and it ended up giving me 8" of snow up in central PA and was mostly rain for DC.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI Euro has been solid as a rock for Sunday. Kind of riding that as my expectation - it's an outcome which would make everyone happy.

Mitch is gonna come along any second and tell us that 12z it lost the storm lol 

[mitchnick]

EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. 

Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Mitch is gonna come along any second and tell us that 12z it lost the storm lol 

Nope. Opposite! Lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nope. Opposite! Lol

Well that was a nice surprise. 

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Been on the board about as long as you. I go back to Wright-Weather Days

Which does not address the statement 

[WEATHER53]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree this is more productive discourse.  Just so you know, honestly, I was just trying to make a light hearted joke yesterday and you went off.  I realize we have had tense exchanges in the past so I will admit that I probably should not have tried to joke around, but it was not meant to start a nuclear exchange.  Honest! 

I don’t much ascribe to the “just kidding” business and it took several more for things to escalate. I do however acknowledge and admire your comments in the overall . How about don’t chide you and you don’t chide me?  We just work toward a common good of quality weather info as Each of us desires to present it?

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. 

Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800

I don't care what everyone else says about you behind your back, I think you're ok 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry


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EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I don’t much ascribe to the “just kidding” business and it took several more for things to escalate. I do however acknowledge and admire your comments in the overall . How about don’t chide you and you don’t chide me?  We just work toward a common good of quality weather info as Each of us desires to present it?

This is acceptable! 

To borrow from Ji 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't care what everyone else says about you behind your back, I think you're ok 

Tell that to my wife.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday 

Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on.  At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade.  Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday 

Seems the difference between the dry solutions and wet ones are the extent of the eastward progress of the cold. Gem, for example,  has the least eastward progression and the strongest storm, albeit too far west outside the foothills and west. 

[Heisy]

Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on.  At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade.  Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet.  

Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it


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[psuhoffman]

@WEATHER53 and btw I did escalate it once it started down that path, I admit and take responsibility for that.  I won't do it again.