psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800 I don't care what everyone else says about you behind your back, I think you're ok 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: The EPS and CMC ensembles for Sunday are ridiculously different for this time range. EPS is kind of concerning being so dry . EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I don’t much ascribe to the “just kidding” business and it took several more for things to escalate. I do however acknowledge and admire your comments in the overall . How about don’t chide you and you don’t chide me? We just work toward a common good of quality weather info as Each of us desires to present it? This is acceptable! To borrow from Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't care what everyone else says about you behind your back, I think you're ok Tell that to my wife. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on. At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade. Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS has really been meh with the threat Sunday Seems the difference between the dry solutions and wet ones are the extent of the eastward progress of the cold. Gem, for example, has the least eastward progression and the strongest storm, albeit too far west outside the foothills and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on. At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade. Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet. Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @WEATHER53 and btw I did escalate it once it started down that path, I admit and take responsibility for that. I won't do it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on. At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade. Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet. Yeah, the mean is now less then an inch. It’s hasn’t been as enthusiastic as the ops with this potential. Still a good amount of time left for changes either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WEATHER53 and btw I did escalate it once it started down that path, I admit and take responsibility for that. I won't do it again. If I could step in and say from experience that it's just best not to respond to others you may not agree with historically. For example, there's a guy on this site who I won't even answer. He's nothing but trouble. I can't remember his screen name, but all I can say is that I Hate'm. I mean I really Hate'm and have stopped all contact. Just a thought. P.s. intended as a joke by the way 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Great point, the shortwave is sort of embedded in the flow. Makes sense lower resolution ensembles may have issues with it . 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, the mean is now less then an inch. It’s hasn’t been as enthusiastic as the ops with this potential. Still a good amount of time left for changes either way It's not missing us NW or SE, it has the max stripe right across our area...its just super light and unimpressed. There are a lot of members that have nothing really at all. So the question is why? Lets keep in mind they are based off the op euro which is generally the least impressed with the wave lately for some reason also...which I am a bit more worried about, but I think the lower resolution of the EPS members probably just makes it likely they struggle with something as discreet as this. This is not really the type of thing they are designed for. The bigger question is why is the euro suddenly so unimpressed with the threat. But the euro is not perfect either, and this is the type of little event where a difference in .15 qpf and a tiny bit of dynamics to get that little "death band" along the thermal boundary is the difference between a 1-2" nothing burger and a 3-6" nice surprise. Any model, even the euro, can miss this type of thing. Or the euro is correct and the UK/GGEM are overdoing the SW. I don't know but if I had to lean one way or the other I think the euro is a bit under done. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least you're not 13 anymore JK You're not wrong, I'm still quite obnoxious LOL. I just learned what many on here need to, which is read more and post less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Which does not address the statement What are you trying to imply, Howard? I get the feeling you think I'm someone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: EuroAI MUCH wetter for Sunday and a light to mod hit for Wednesday. Here's the link to scroll through precip. Easier thame posting separate maps. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501151200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501151800 You forgot to mention the 3rd hit out at day 13-15 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing. It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro. I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: You forgot to mention the 3rd hit out at day 13-15 lol I had to give you something to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Scrolling through the past Euro AI runs it has been remarkably consistent for the Sunday event, all the way back to 18z on Janaury 11th it has basically shown the same thing. It's been way more consistent than the GFS and even a bit more consistent than the regular Euro. I'm not saying that means it will be correct but it's interesting how little it's oscillated. It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it . One of the mets on here (MillvilleWx maybe?) said it was doing well up until Day 5, but not so well Days 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I had to give you something to do I'm busy extrapolating the NAM 2 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: If I was in ATL or NC I’d be pretty stoked rn. That part has been pretty consistent in all the models. Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast? Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea? It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north? Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general. The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference. (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast. I thought it would be “erroneous” by now? Or the model is completely out to lunch!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s been doing this all winter. It seems to have a lockdown range where it really only makes minor adjustments. I’d love to see the H5 verification charts I bet it’s #1 or close to it . I can't do this now but if you make a GIF on TT of the last 17 runs of Euro AI valid for 00z Monday the 20th, it's crazy consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Take this FWIW but its a pretty discreet piece of energy and perhaps the kind of thing the ensembles would struggle to pick up on. At least historically this is true but I am not as familiar with the new higher resolution EPS system since the upgrade. Haven't had a ton of test cases like this yet. It’s the discreet storms that we often look back and say hey that one was the beginning or ending to a great winter run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Middle of the month. A lot of doom and gloom at times.. a lot of banter.. is it time for a new thread as this one is 134 pages deep? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Middle of the month. A lot of doom and gloom at times.. a lot of banter.. is it time for a new thread as this one is 134 pages deep? And probably time to separate out the weekend thing and give it a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: And probably time to separate out the weekend thing and give it a thread. I was starting to think that with multiple potential windows and that one nearing d4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wonder if this has some bearing on the pending Artic invasion forecast for next week. https://www.yahoo.com/news/alaska-pummeled-hurricane-force-winds-124644551.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I was starting to think that with multiple potential windows and that one nearing d4 Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour What do we name this one? Hmm thing was already used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast? Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea? It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north? Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general. The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference. (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast. I thought it would be “erroneous” by now? Or the model is completely out to lunch!) For me, it's kinda fun, this model roulette. To me it means we'll always have equal chances up to when the models settle, which may not be until 72 our so hours like many here have been saying. Normally we see the writing on the wall well before then. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Concur, lots of data to now separate, should do it before Happy Hour I'm telling yall, we're gonna keep getting all sevens on each model every few runs. The choice time is when they all settle on triple 7s...which we won't know probably until Friday for the Sunday thing and Sunday for the mid week thing. Fun times, IMO. Even better is watching most folks here swing like human pendulums run to run. Oh what a time! 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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